Elon Musk's SpaceX may become on the verge of going public: The company that nearly went bankrupt in the 2000s is mulling an initial public offering (IPO) that would value it at $1.5 trillion. The move could net SpaceX tens of billions of dollars, but more than just money is at stake: the future of space exploration also hangs in the balance.
SpaceX is integral to numerous mission-critical missions with both NASA and the Pentagon, including ferrying crew and cargo to the International Space Station, placing satellites in orbit, and playing a key role in NASA's plan to return astronauts to the Moon by 2028. Satellite internet service Starlink is on the rise. And lest we forget, the company has its own long-term vision: to land on and even colonize Mars.
Going public would put SpaceX in the company of legacy, traditional aerospace heavyweights like Boeing and Northrop Grumman and industry upstarts like Rocket Lab and Firefly Aerospace. However, according to experts, SpaceX's plans are striking.
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“The fact that this might be a packaged SpaceX IPO is a bit of a surprise,” says Matthew Weinzierl, a Harvard Business School researcher who studies the private space sector. There was a feeling that Musk might take Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX, public because it makes so much money, but he wouldn't do it with the entire company, Weinzierl says.
If SpaceX goes public, it will mean more scrutiny, more shareholder interest and—perhaps most important for space science—more investment to support its research and development. “SpaceX has been a major driver of what we're seeing in space right now,” both positive and negative, says Aaron Boley, a planetary scientist at the University of British Columbia and co-founder of the Space Institute, a network of space experts.
The IPO could lead to an influx of capital to fund new projects, such as building orbital solar-powered data centers to support artificial intelligence, Weinzierl said, possibly including the Musk's own artificial intelligence company xAI. Musk had proposed the same in October.
Fresh money could also support SpaceX's work with NASA and the US Department of Defense. The company's contracts include billions dollars to transport NASA astronauts and cargo to and from space, a $255 million deal to launch NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope in the spring of 2027, and billions of dollars to put defense satellites into Earth orbit as part of the National Security Space Launch Program. And at the end of October, the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX installed on award a $2 billion contract to work on President Donald Trump's project. Missile defense project “Golden Dome”why satellites will be developed to track missiles and aircraft.
Given that NASA and the Pentagon are already so dependent on the commercial space industry, and especially SpaceX, going public may not do much to change the company's relationship with both agencies, says Clayton Swope, deputy director of the aerospace security project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C. And SpaceX may have another government ally in newly confirmed NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman. He flew into space with Space on two missions: Inspiration4 And Polar Dawn.
SpaceX's potential IPO comes at a time of significant uncertainty for NASA. Doubts swirl around the future of the agency's Artemis lunar program, which is set to land astronauts. on the surface of the Moon in 2028. SpaceX has been awarded a NASA contract to build and operate its human landing system using the SpaceX Starship mega-rocket as part of the SpaceX project. Artemis III And Artemis IV missions. (Jeff Bezos' rival Blue Origin received a contract for Artemis V.)
More Artemis III— this is slated to be the first time astronauts have set foot on the Moon since then. Apollo 17 in 1972 – was repeatedly delayed, in part due to problems with SpaceX's still-in-development Starship. To support Artemis, SpaceX plans to launch several Starships that can refuel in orbit, as well as send a modified Starship lander to the lunar surface. But the company has yet to prove that the rocket is capable of all this. Now SpaceX risks losing the contract altogether: citing growing competition with China, US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, then acting head of NASA, resumption of competitions For Artemis III contract in October.
What all this means for potential investors is that buying a stake in SpaceX is risky, especially given the numerous setbacks the company has faced with Starship, not to mention Musk's controversial policies and business practices.
“If you buy SpaceX's IPO, you're buying the way they run a business, which has both explosive failures and spectacular successes,” Swope says. However, while SpaceX's plans for the Moon and Mars may or may not come to fruition, the company continues to attract talent to complement investor interest.
Selling SpaceX public would also mean shareholders would have a say in the company's decisions, which could create tension with Musk, who “doesn't like” checks on his credentials, according to Wendy Whitman Cobb, a professor of strategy and security studies at the University's School of Air and Space Advanced Studies. Planetary scientist Boley hopes shareholders will hold SpaceX accountable for its environmental performance and safety: The company has numerous “dual-use” spacecraft that serve both civilian and military customers. And with nearly 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, the risk of collisions—and potentially raining debris onto Earth—is also growing.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether Musk and SpaceX management will go through with the IPO.
“The situation in Washington and the space community appears to be changing rapidly. It may not be a done deal yet,” says Swope.
