It all started in Copenhagen. Around 20:30 on a Monday in late September several large drones have been spotted We are flying close to the airport.
All takeoffs and landings were stopped for almost four hours. More than 50 flights were diverted and more than 100 were cancelled.
On the same day, 30 flights were grounded at Oslo Airport in Norway due to another suspected drone sighting.
Over the past few months, several more European cities have seen their airports temporarily closed by nearby drones. This happened twice within 24 hours in Munich in early October. More than 10,000 people had their travel plans disrupted.
In a way, this is unpleasant for travelers. However, analysts and political leaders say this is an example Russia's hybrid war.
This strategy involves the use of plausible deniability to undermine society, and can also include disinformation and cyber attacks.
As the head of the British Secret Intelligence Service, Blaise Metreveli, said in her inaugural speech on December 15: “The new front line is everywhere.”
Drones have also been spotted near air bases, but the impact has been greatest in Lithuania, a Baltic country of fewer than 3 million people whose eastern border is less than 70 miles as the crow flies from Russia's westernmost edge.
Over the past 10 weeks, the airport in the capital Vilnius has been closed 15 times. And not because of drones, but because of balloons that smuggle boxes of cheap cigarettes across the border from Belarus.
“They are also difficult to detect because they are not large aircraft or drones,” said Sean Patrick, senior aviation security analyst at Osprey Flight Solutions.
“The Russian side very cleverly took advantage of this to use these systems, and they pushed Lithuania to declare an emergency.”
Thirteen days before the Scandinavian incidents, about 20 Russian drones flew over the border with Poland. The airspace over four Polish airports was closed and NATO forces scrambled planes, shooting down up to four drones.
Poland also invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which calls for consultation in an emergency – the first time it has been used since the war in Ukraine began in 2022.
Then, during the Copenhagen incident, a Russian-linked ship was discovered off the Danish coast. French troops later boarded the oil tanker and the captain, a Chinese national, was charged with one count of refusing to follow French navy instructions.
“Many of these ships have just recently changed their names,” Patrick said. “They have new flags. It’s very difficult to keep track of who is doing what, who is working for whom.”
At other points, however, the connections with Russia were less obvious. Norwegian police have closed their investigation into the Oslo incident, saying there was insufficient evidence that the drones actually existed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin denies the country's involvement.
In a research report published earlier this month, Osprey Flight Solutions said: “It remains unconfirmed whether any/all… incidents are directly related.”
“Osprey assesses that some of the drone sightings are likely to be false identifications, meaning they are not drones.”
Drones disrupting air travel could be a sign of a worse future
DHL cargo plane in Germany. Jens Schlüter/Getty Images
In July 2024 package exploded at DHL freight center in Leipzig, Germany. The head of the country's domestic intelligence agency said it was “just a happy coincidence” that the delayed package caught fire on the ground and not during the flight.
Similar fires occurred in warehouses in Poland and the UK. Then, in September this year, Lithuanian prosecutors charged 15 people with terrorism, the BBC reported.
They said individuals linked to Russian intelligence planted explosive devices in vibrating massage pads that were activated by electronic timers. All parcels were sent from Lithuania.
Investigators also said they believed these were test launches aimed at sabotaging flights to the United States and Canada.
“You can’t imagine Europe going to war with Russia over some balloons in Lithuania“,” Patrick told Business Insider. – And then this is where you reach the limit? Europe wants to know what the limit is?”
“So that’s the problem,” he added. “If they blow up a railroad or detonate an incendiary device on a transatlantic flight, what's the next step? Do people want to know what happens next?”
These incidents show how Europeans are facing a new reality since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022.
Even Dublin Airport, more than 1,500 miles from Kyiv, experienced a drone incident. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in the Irish capital ahead of schedule earlier this month, before drones were spotted nearby.
Some European leaders have called for the creation drone wall — an air defense system in the east of the continent to stop drones launched from Russia.
Although discussions continue over peace agreement in UkraineTensions are likely to remain high.
“Even if Ukraine war will come to some kind of hold, ceasefire, peace agreement, I think we can expect Russia to continue this,” Patrick said. “Now they've got a taste for it.”
