Target The goal of the quantum computing industry is to create a powerful, capable machine capable of solving large-scale problems in science and industry that classical computing cannot solve. We I won't get there in 2026. In fact, scientists have been working towards this goal since at least 1980sand it turned out to be difficult, to say the least.
“If someone says quantum computers commercially useful today, I say I want to have what they have,” said Yuval Bogercommercial director of a quantum computing startup KveEra, on stage in Question+AI conference in New York in October.
Because the goal is so high, tracking its progress is also difficult. To help chart the course for truly transformative quantum technology and identify milestones along the way, the team Microsoft Quantum came up with a new one framework.
This concept defines three levels of progress in quantum computing. The first level includes the kinds of machines we have today: so-called noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers (NISQ). These computers are made up of approximately 1000 quantum bits, or qubitsbut are noisy and error prone. The second level consists of small machines that implement one of many protocols that can reliably detect and correct qubit errors. The third and final layer is a large-scale error-correcting version of these machines, containing hundreds of thousands or even millions of qubits and capable of performing millions of quantum operations with high precision.
If you accept this concept, 2026 will be the year when customers can finally get their hands on Level 2 quantum computers. “We're really excited about 2026 because a lot of the work we've done in recent years is now coming to fruition,” says Srinivas Prasad SugasaniVice President of Quantum Technologies at Microsoft.
Microsoft in collaboration with a startup Atomic computingplans deliver quantum computer with error correction for the Export Investment Fund Denmark And Novo Nordisk Foundation. “This machine should be used for scientific advantage—not commercial advantage yet, but that is the way forward,” says Sugasani.
KveEra also has delivered quantum machine ready for error correction in Japan National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)and plans to make it available to customers worldwide in 2026.
Error correction value
Perhaps the main problem with modern quantum computers is their tendency to become noisy. Quantum bits are inherently fragile and therefore sensitive to all kinds of environmental factors such as electrical or magnetic fieldsmechanical vibrations or even cosmic rays. Some argue that even noisy quantum machines can be useful, but almost everyone agrees that for truly transformative applications, quantum computers will need to become error-tolerant.
To make classical information error-proof, it can simply be repeated. Let's say you want to send 0 bits over a noisy channel. This 0 can turn into a 1 along the way, leading to misunderstandings. But if you send three zeros in a row instead, it will still be obvious that you were trying to send a 0, even if one of them is reversed.
Simple repetition doesn't work with qubits because they can't be copied and pasted. But there are still ways to encode the information contained in one qubit into many physical qubits, making it more stable. These groups of physical qubits encoding information in the size of one qubit are known as logical qubits. Once information is encoded in these logical qubits, error correction occurs as calculations are performed and errors occur. algorithms it can then be determined what mistakes were made and what the original information was.
Simply creating these logical qubits is not enough – it is important to experimentally verify that encoding information in logical qubits leads to lower error rates and improved calculations. Back in 2023, the QuEra team, in collaboration with researchers from Harvard, WITHand the University of Maryland, showed that quantum operations performed on logical qubits are superior to operations performed on bare physical qubits. Microsoft and Atom Computing Team accomplished the same feat in 2024.
This year, these scientific achievements will reach customers. The machine, called Magne, which will be supplied by Microsoft and Atom Computing, will have 50 logical qubits built from about 1,200 physical qubits and should be operational by early 2027. The QuEra machine at AIST has about 37 logical qubits (depending on implementation) and 260 physical qubits, Boger says.
Quantum computers made from atoms
It is perhaps no coincidence that both level-2 quantum computers will be built from the same type of qubits: neutral atoms. Although the world of classical computing has long stopped at transistor The world of quantum computing has not yet chosen the ideal qubit as a fundamental device, be it superconductor (prosecuted in IBM, Googleand others), photon (used by such as PsiQuantum And Xanadu), ion (developed IonQ And How manyand these are just a few) or others.
All of these options have their advantages and disadvantages, but there is a reason why some of the earliest error-correcting machines are built on neutral atoms. The physical qubits that make up a logical qubit must be close together or connected in some way to exchange information. Unlike, say, superconducting qubits printed on a chip, any two atomic qubits can be placed next to each other (an advantage shared trapped ions).
“Neutral atoms can be moved,” says QuEra’s Boger. “This allows us to create error correction techniques that are simply not possible using static qubits.”
A neutral atom quantum computer consists of a vacuum chamber. Inside the chamber, the gas of atoms is cooled just above absolute zero. Individual atoms are then captured, held and even moved by tightly focused laser beams in a technique known as optical tweezers. Each atom represents one physical qubit, and these qubits can be arranged in a two-dimensional or even three-dimensional array.
Neutral atom quantum computers are made up of individual atoms that are manipulated and controlled primarily lasers. Sophisticated optical systems direct the laser beams precisely to their destination. Atomic computing
The calculation itself—a sequence of “quantum gates”—is performed by illuminating the atoms with a separate laser, illuminating them in a precisely orchestrated manner. In addition to maneuverability, the neutral atom approach offers parallelism: the same laser pulse can illuminate many pairs of atoms simultaneously, performing the same operation on each pair at the same time.
The main disadvantage of neutral atom qubits is that they are a bit slow. Computing on atomic systems is about one-hundredth or one-thousandth faster than theirs. superconducting colleagues, says Jerry Chowdirector of quantum systems at IBM Quantum.
However, Boger argues that this slowdown can be compensated for. “Thanks to the unique capabilities of neutral atoms, we have shown that we can achieve speedups of 50 or 100 times what was previously thought,” he says, meaning recent work at QuEra in collaboration with Harvard and Yale. “We think that when you compare what some people call solution time, not just clock speed, but how long it takes you to get that useful result…neutral atoms are comparable to superconducting qubits today.” Although each operation is slow, more operations are performed in parallel and fewer operations are required to correct errors, allowing for increased speed.
Several ways to skin Schrödinger's cat
Microsoft's three-tier structure is not accepted by everyone in the industry.
“I think this kind of level creation… represents a very physical device-centric view of the world, and we need to look at it more from a computational point of view, which is: what can you actually use these circuits for and turn them on?” says IBM's Chou.
Chow argues that while the ultimate goal is to build a large error-correcting machine, this does not mean that error correction must be implemented first. Instead, the IBM team is focusing on finding uses for existing machines and using other error mitigation strategies, and working to create a machine that is fully bug-fixed. 2029.
Whether you accept this formulation or not, the QuEra, Microsoft, and Atom Computing teams are optimistic about the potential of the neutral atom approach to achieve large-scale devices. “If there is one word, it is scalability. This is the key advantage of neutral atoms,” says Justin JingDirector of Products, Atom Computing.
Both the QuEra and Atom Computing teams claim that within the next few years they will be able to fit 100,000 atoms into a single vacuum chamber, paving a clear path to that third level quantum computing.
This article appears in the January 2026 print issue.
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