Hawaii vs. Cal prediction, odds, time: 2025 Hawaii Bowl picks from proven model

The 2025-26 college football schedule only has one game on Christmas Eve, and it's in the Aloha State. The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl 2025 will be attended by: California golden bears facing Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Cal (7-5) won 38-35 over SMU but has lost three straight games. Hawaii (8-4) is coming off a 27-7 win over Wyoming and has a 5-4 record in the namesake bowl. The Golden Bears enter the 2025 Hawaii Bowl leading the all-time series between the programs, 2-1. Hawaii's star receiver Jackson Harris, who has nearly 1,000 rushing yards this year, is in the transfer portal.

Kickoff will be at 8:00 pm ET at the Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu. Cal won the game when the teams last met in 2016, 51-21. The Rainbow Warriors are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Cal vs. Hawaii odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under for total points is 50.5. Before you decide between Hawaii and Cal, Check out the college football predictions with SportsLine's projection model.

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is 31-19 in college football's best betting rankings since the start of the 2024 season.

Now the model has set its sights on Cal vs. Hawaii. You can visit SportsLine now to see the selection. Here's the FBS college football chances and trends for Hawaii compared to California:

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How to make a choice in Hawaii vs. Cal

After 10,000 simulations between California and Hawaii, SportsLine's model looks like this: pass in amount (50.5 points).

Something about the Rainbow Warriors showing up in this cup game seems to light up the scoreboard for both teams. Of Hawaii's nine previous appearances in the Hawaii Bowl, eight of them scored at least 60 total points, and five of them scored at least 70 total points. As for Cal, his performances have eclipsed the game totals in two of the last three, as well as the Golden Bears' starting QB, Jaron-Kiawe Sagapoluteleis a native Hawaiian and will want to put on a show when he returns.

After posting 330 yards and 4 touchdowns, Sagapolutele is projected to top 300 yards and several total touchdowns again. His colleague Mika Alejadoleads the Mountain West in assists per game and has three in five of his last seven games. Considering the explosiveness of both games, Over hits over 50% of simulations.

The model also says that one side of the spread hits 70% of the time. You can see the model selection at SportsLine..

So who will win Hawaii vs. California, and which side of the spread lands 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the California-Hawaii spread is worth moving to, all from an advanced model that sits atop the moneyline rankings.and find out.