President Donald Trump's announcement on social media of a “total and complete” blockade of authorized oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela is a striking military move that increases U.S. pressure on the country's leader Nicolas Maduro.
On the surface, the President's Dec. 16 statement was textbook gunboat diplomacy. “Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest armada ever assembled in the history of South America,” Trump wrote. “It's only going to get bigger and the shock for them will be like nothing they've ever seen before.”
Some analysts warn that if the shock is as big as Mr. Trump promises, it could push the food-insecure state toward famine and trigger a new wave of migration from the country. Oil is critical to Venezuela's economy, accounting for approximately 90% of its exports and more than half of its government revenue.
Why did we write this
Efforts to prevent black market oil tankers from entering or leaving Venezuela signal that U.S. goals extend beyond the drug trade to include pressure on the Maduro regime.
It is because blockades deny countries access to goods and trade, with potentially dire consequences, that they are considered acts of war.
Trump's latest show of force is not technically a blockade, but the administration appears eager to show it is ready for battle. It sent bombers and warships to the Caribbean, including the world's largest and most modern aircraft carrier.
On December 10, the United States tracked and obtained a federal arrest warrant for Skipper, a sanctioned tanker carrying Venezuelan and Iranian oil. Mr Trump says he plans for the US to keep the ship's cargo for itself.
On Saturday, the U.S. Coast Guard, under the auspices of the Department of Homeland Security and with assistance from the Department of Defense, seized a second tanker that had recently docked off the coast of Venezuela. By Sunday, the U.S. was pursuing a third tanker that U.S. officials said was operating under a false flag.
These latest moves add to the sense that the president's increased military action in the Caribbean is aimed not only at combating drug trafficking, as the administration has previously emphasized, but also at forcing Mr. Maduro to relinquish power. Analysts say the two goals are linked for Trump, as administration officials call Maduro a drug lord and designate his regime a foreign terrorist organization.
If Trump's pressure campaign to oust Maduro succeeds, analysts say it will raise even more questions, including whether the United States can facilitate the rise of an opposition-controlled government. Meanwhile, the administration's anti-drug campaign continues: Last week, the US military attacked two more suspected drug ships, bringing to 104 the death toll in a campaign that began in September.
“The idea is to use every lever available,” including combating drug trafficking as well as the oil black market, “to apply pressure in more and more areas to try to persuade Maduro to leave,” says Brian Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank and a retired Navy officer who served as special assistant to the chief of naval operations.
Mr Maduro condemned what he called “belligerent threats” by the US. He also ordered his navy to begin escorting oil tankers, a rather demonstrative move since they are legal vessels not subject to the Trump administration's latest executive order.
However, analysts say it raises the risk of escalation in the Caribbean and increases the likelihood of further intervention by the US military, raising questions about whether Venezuela and the US are heading towards war.
Blockade or quarantine?
The last widely recognized US blockade was carried out during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis to prevent the Soviet Union from delivering nuclear missiles to the island.
Although it then operated as a blockade in practice, the US avoided the term, using the term “quarantine” instead to avoid the legal consequences of an act of war. Today, Mr. Trump accepts it.
“The blockade sounds more forceful and militant,” says Mr. Clark, who also led strategy development for the Navy commander's internal think tank. “But in reality it will be more like a quarantine because they are selectively targeting specific tankers that have been involved in the illegal oil trade.”
The blockade, as Mr. Trump has defined it, appears to apply only to oil tankers that are part of the international “dark fleet” of vessels already under US sanctions.
The question now is how much of Venezuela's oil trade will be disrupted, Mr Clarke says. “Do they selectively go after tankers that have been identified early on as intruders (meaning you only go after a few tankers and it's very targeted), or do they end up having some kind of broader screening regime?”
The second seized tanker was not sanctioned, suggesting the administration is trying to cast a wider net.
There is also the question of whether the US military, under the control of the Pentagon, or the Coast Guard, under the auspices of the Department of Homeland Security, will carry out stops and inspections (which could lead to more tankers being brought into the US network).
One thing is clear: vessel tracking capabilities are improving. The location of the Skipper tanker, seized on December 10, was determined using satellites and special technology, “despite attempts by its operator to falsify its location,” the source said. analysis notes Clayton Seagle, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Sanctions may also affect China and Russia. Including tanker seizures in Washington's toolkit, Mr. Seigle said, “will certainly raise eyebrows in China, whose oil imports from sanctioned suppliers Russia, Iran and Venezuela make up more than a quarter of its import supply chain.”
Military confrontation may not be inevitable
The same is true of Russia's shadow fleet, which, from Ukraine's point of view, could have a positive impact on Moscow's war in that warring country.
That's because Russia “relies on a vast shadow fleet” of aging tankers with opaque ownership structures to keep oil flowing despite Western sanctions, said Agnia Grigas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. wrote in the December 17 analysis.
The Trump administration's latest seizure actions show that “Washington is increasingly willing to view sanctions evasion not only as a financial violation, but also as a maritime security issue,” Dr. Grigas said. This could negatively impact Russia's military efforts in Ukraine.
It could also create a deterrent effect, she said, “by demonstrating that shadow fleets are visible, trackable and vulnerable.”
In Venezuela, while the seizure of American tankers could hit the economy hard, the pressing question from the Trump administration's perspective appears to be whether it is enough to topple the current regime—whether Maduro will go away on his own or not. And if that fails, the next question will be whether the United States will act on the ground.
Most analysts consider a US ground invasion unlikely. Meanwhile, if stopping the flow of oil tankers makes the situation on the ground so painful that Mr. Maduro leaves in exchange for lifting the embargo, it will not necessarily mean success for the Venezuelan opposition, some analysts say.
If Mr. Maduro's grip on power is broken, “the regime as such will struggle to survive,” says Kurt Weiland, a political scientist at the University of Texas.
Many of those who worked closely with Mr. Maduro are corrupt and engaged in human rights abuses, he adds. “None of them can dare to lose power due to the threat of international persecution.”
Yet despite the buildup of US forces in the Caribbean, there is also a feeling among some analysts that they could just as easily wind down without a major military confrontation.
“I predict this will go away over time,” Dr. Weiland says. “The US is not interested in a major military conflict.”
Whitney Eilich in Mexico City contributed to this article.
