Now that we are on the other side of the day of labor, and the summer is decreasing, this is the way the tradition goes – when to concentrate on political campaigns really begins to heat up. Elections in non-working hours in November this year will attract some attention, but the main attraction remains the presidential primary results in 2024.
In this release of FiveThirtyeight Politics pivasta, we ask a question to which we will undoubtedly return four months before the Ayova meetings: is Donald Trump's candidacy inevitable? And if it is not inevitable, how can we place the probability that he will win the primary party in a historical context?
We also have partial results from two special primary elections, and we discuss “good or poor use of a survey” for a classical and contradictory topic: internal polls.
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