Say what you will about Philip Rivers and his return to the NFL after five years, but when it comes to Monday night's game between the 49ers and Colts, we have to thank our lucky stars that he was in it. Otherwise, after Daniel Jones' season-ending injury essentially ended the Colts' previously dreamy season, there would have been far less talk about Monday night's penultimate regular-season game.
It's not always the case that the hot topic of the pregame show is also the fulcrum of the game's handicap, but here we are, with the favored 49ers visiting the Colts, a team whose market rankings are in flux and uncertainty persists about what they can get from Rivers, their most experienced quarterback.
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Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 46) — Indianapolis Colts
With the Seahawks' dramatic win over the Rams on Thursday and now a primetime game of their own, San Francisco is no longer in sight and has a clear path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
However, the 49ers are not ranked like their NFC West counterparts, despite a four-game winning streak since Brock Purdy's return in which the Niners were considered favorites in every game.
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This matches the San Francisco Preseason Handicap, where we could see how easy the schedule would be, suggesting the 49ers could finish the season with a great record without even knowing how good they are. However, there is room for growth in their market power ranking as their average play may be better than they expect.
San Francisco has a top-5 offensive EPA/play at backup quarterbacks this season, and while that number has dropped slightly over the last four games, the run game has become more efficient, rising from league-average efficiency to seventh since Week 11. This is likely a result of Purdy's presence forcing opponents to play further from the line of scrimmage, as well as more space for Christian McCaffrey and Brian Robinson.
While San Francisco can control their destiny and the level at which they play on Monday, whether they cover or not may depend more on what the Colts get from Rivers.
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Indianapolis nearly won last week, but Rivers' arm strength only showed up in bursts (short throws from straight passes). The Colts were unable to push the ball down the field, and the result was their 16 points on 120 passing yards from Rivers. It didn't take long for Seattle to notice that Indy's offense included checkdowns (eight) to running backs, and after Jonathan Taylor's early 11-yard run, it too was kept in check.
You could make the case that the Seahawks didn't know what to get from the sudden return of the future Hall of Famer, but after adjustments at halftime, they only allowed 67 yards the rest of the way. Now Robert Saleh and the Niners' defense have an idea of what to expect, and they have more than a week to prepare.
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The Colts defense put in an inspired effort last week, and while they are still without Sauce Gardner, DeForest Buckner is expected to come off IR. This will bolster the run defense, but there is still so little room for error against the always difficult-to-track 49ers offense, which is happy to just throw the ball to its star quarterback.
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The Colts' market ranking, which last week compared them to the worst teams in the NFL, was upgraded to match the Giants, Commanders and Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes. That may still be too little given what we saw from these teams last weekend, but against a lowly title contender, it's asking too much from a side limited on both sides of the ball.
Pick: 49ers -5.5
Player Props
Buckner's return and Ricky Pearsall's absence cloud the calculations of when the 49ers will have the ball, but we can still play three props from the Colts offense that have some correlation, albeit potentially mutually exclusive, as they tell the story of what needs to happen now that the Niners' defense knows what Rivers is capable of.
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Jonathan Taylor under 98.5 yards (-115)
The first thing that needs to happen is that San Francisco needs to move everyone a step closer to the line of scrimmage and focus on the one piece of the Colts offense that can beat them – Jonathan Taylor. The betting market knows this, but it is also fully aware that Taylor will consistently get the ball early on. However, if the 49ers can take the lead the way Seattle couldn't last week, Rivers might not be able to blindly hand it to Taylor 25-plus times.
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San Francisco's run defense was fairly normal by advanced metrics (12th in opponents' run plays EPA/game), but against teams like Carolina, Cleveland and Atlanta, they came up short, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry to Rico Dowdle, Quinshawn Judkins, and the Bijan Robinson/Tyler Allgaier combination.
Alec Pierce has longest reception over 13.5 yards (-115)
So the Niners get their guys close to the line of scrimmage and challenge Rivers to throw them over them. If you know anything about Rivers, he'll give it a try. The Colts' best man-to-man jump ball target is Pierce, who is averaging 20.1 yards per reception and has a long reception of at least 16 yards in every game played this season. That low, long catch was last week when Rivers gave him a chance to knock the ball down and Pierce made it.
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Philip Rivers over 0.5 interceptions (-120)
Rivers takes some shots because of the way Saleh runs his defense, and some of them are successful. But some don't, especially late in the game when the Colts are on the trail. Indianapolis trailed in all seven games last week, and Rivers threw an interception in the seventh game.
Touchdown anytime
Jauan Jennings (+130)
To borrow a phrase from Chris “Boomer” Berman, all Jauan Jennings does is catch touchdowns. This season he has seven goals on just 44 receptions. Of all the players with seven touchdowns, only Quentin Johnston has a higher percentage of catches leading to a touchdown. But wait, there's more. Since Purdy's recovery in the starting role, Jennings has scored in three straight games and scored four touchdowns on Purdy's 16 catches.
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Tyler Warren (+280)
Without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, the 49ers defense isn't dominant enough to completely stop the Colts, but Shane Steichen may have to get creative near the goal line since he no longer has Jones as a nominal threat to carry and Rivers never used the QB trickery even in his prime.
Not only is Rivers one half of one of the greatest QB-TE duos in NFL history (so he knows where to look for a Colts rookie tight end), but Warren has also been used on direct plays in short-yardage scenarios.
For more valuable betting analysis, check out Yahoo Sports Betting Writer. Matt RussellV WINDOW.
