Just win, baby.
Any debate over who should make the 12-team playoffs doesn't matter anymore. All that matters is making it to the next round.
Four teams will do so this weekend. It started on Friday when Alabama defeated Oklahomamoving on to the top seed game Indiana at the Rose Bowl on January 1st.
Three more teams will get their chance on Saturday, starting with Miamitrip to Texas A&M and the winner plays Ohio in the Cotton Bowl.
ESPN's college football writers are already looking ahead, so let's take a closer look at these quarterfinal matchups.
When: January, 13:40. THIS. TV: ESPN
Path to the playoffs: Coach Curt Sinetti and the Hoosiers heard the hate directed at them at the end of their historic 2024 season and decided to take it back and do even better this fall. Indiana capped its first 10-win season and first CFP appearance by becoming the only FBS team to top the standings, posting a 13-0 mark, winning its first Big Ten title since 1945 and securing the top spot in the CFP field.
The Hoosiers played a much tougher Big Ten schedule than in 2024, beating Oregon, Iowa and Penn State on the road to then score a No. Illinois led by 53 points in Bloomington and ended with a 13-10 victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, a matchup pitting the nation's No. 1 and No. 2 teams.
For all the talk of a soft nonleague schedule, Indiana hasn't been hampered at all, winning all but two of its regular-season Big Ten games by double digits. The Hoosiers finished second nationally in point differential, outscoring their opponents by 404 points. They had to rally against Penn State and Iowa, but were unstoppable at home, winning seven games by an average of 40.7 points.
Player to watch: After a team-record 11 wins in 2024, Indiana began looking for room for improvement, including at quarterback, despite strong play from Kurtis Rourke (3,042 passing yards, 29 touchdowns). The Hoosiers landed an even more coveted transfer quarterback in Cal. Fernando Mendozawho further strengthened the passing attack and became the school's first Heisman Trophy winner.
Mendoza had four nearly flawless performances with an over 85% completion rate and four or more touchdowns and no interceptions. He ranks in the top three spots on Indiana's single-game completion percentage rankings. Mendoza helped lead Indiana to key road wins over Penn State and Iowa and also overcame one of his few major mistakes, a pick-six at Oregon, to lead two fourth-quarter scoring runs. Mendoza leads the FBS with 33 touchdown passes, an Indiana single-season record.
Biggest question: There aren't many weak spots in Indiana's profile, as the Hoosiers' offense and defense rank in the top 10 in the country in many key statistical categories. But if Indiana wants to advance in the CFP, it will likely face some key situations at fourth down and may have to find more efficiency. The Hoosiers finished the season 8 of 16 in fourth place, tied for 90th nationally and well behind other CFP teams such as Texas A&M, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama. Indiana blew all three of its fourth-down chances in a 20-15 win over Iowa and fell 1-0 the following week at Oregon. The good news is that IU got much better then, converting its last five fourth-down attempts, including a fourth-and-2 late in the first half against Ohio State to make a field goal.
They can win if…: The Hoosiers can successfully run a balanced offense like they have done for most of the season. Mendoza's arrival and success have at times overshadowed Indiana's performance, which is significantly better than in 2024. The Hoosiers rank 11th nationally in rushing yards (221.1 yards per game), up from 63rd last season (165.1). Indiana continued to run even in lower-scoring games, as demonstrated against Iowa (39 attempts), Penn State (31) and Ohio State (34 attempts). The offense can't deviate from this approach against an Alabama defense that defends the run well but isn't ranked among the best in the country. Indiana also excels in turnover margin, tied with Texas Tech for the national lead in turnover margin at plus -17. — Adam Rittenberg
What we learned in the first round: Alabama may not have looked as good on Friday night as it did in September and October, but the Crimson Tide still showed they have one more thing to build on en route to the biggest comeback in CFP history against Oklahoma. Unforced errors crushed the Crimson Tide in their 23-21 loss to the Sooners in November. In the first-round rematch, Alabama flipped the script, rallying from a 17-0 deficit. Zabien Brown50-yard pick-six and disciplined quarterback play Ty Simpsonwho, two weeks after his disastrous performance in the SEC title game, began to look much more like himself. The Crimson Tide played the (mostly) error-free football that eluded them in the latter half of the regular season. They'll have to do it again when they meet No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.
Player to watch: With touchdowns on either side of halftime in the first-round game against Oklahoma, the rookie wide receiver Lotzeir Brooks joined some elite company and became just the fifth Alabama pass catcher to score two times in a CFP game. Next to it on this list: DeVonta Smith (twice), O.J. Howard, Calvin Ridley and Amari Cooper. Brooks caught five passes for 79 yards in his CFP debut, finishing as the Crimson Tide's leading receiver in the 34–24 win. In a pass catching corps that includes Jeremy Bernard, Ryan Williams And Isaiah HortonBrooks is as dynamic as anyone, and he could once again be a difference-maker against the Hoosiers' 19th-ranked passing defense.
They can win if…: Alabama is limiting its mistakes, and Simpson is playing like the Heisman-caliber quarterback we saw in the first half of the season. The Crimson Tide beat Oklahoma in its own first-round game, forcing a quarterback John Mather on timely mistakes and pounce on mistakes such as Grayson Millerfailed punt attempt before halftime. Add in Simpson's low-key, accurate quarterback play, and the Crimson Tide have the makings to give Indiana trouble. — Eli Lederman
