Canadian travelers hoping to ring in the new year without having to worry about a labor dispute may be out of luck as most of the country's major airlines face unions at the bargaining table in 2026.
Industry and labor experts agree that while a strike or lockout is not guaranteed when airlines and unions representing their workers negotiate, The skies ahead are not entirely clear, even after the settlement of numerous disputes that have rocked the industry in recent months.
The most recent example is that Air Transat began canceling flights the day before negotiations between the company and its pilots. led to a preliminary agreementbut this deal was concluded only a few hours before the start of a full-scale strike.
Air Transat and its pilots reached a tentative agreement hours before a strike deadline that would have jeopardized many Canadians' holiday travel plans.
This comes just months after Air Canada flights were grounded for several days in late summer when flight attendants walked off the job. WestJet passengers faced similar flight cancellations in 2024 due to a mechanics' strike.
But negotiations are not over yet for these carriers.
WestJet will start 2026 with talks with flight attendants. Air Canada will see many ground crew and baggage handlers negotiate contract extensions. Porter Airlines continues to negotiate first-ever deals with pilots, air traffic controllers and flight attendants.
“They all have the potential to shut down airlines in each of the contract negotiations,” said John Gradek, a lecturer in the department of aviation management at McGill University.
Why do these disputes continue to arise?
Canadians have experienced travel disruptions during many popular travel periods over the past few years, certainly more so than in past decades.
One of the factors causing the sudden surge in contract disputes is that many long-term contracts are expiring. Airlines such as Air Transat and Air Canada are renegotiating contracts that in some cases were signed a decade ago.
Contracts of this length are unusual, according to both labor and industry experts, but they were originally signed as some airlines such as Air Canada faced harsher financial realities.
“They were trying to find a way to force the airline industry to consolidate in terms of profitability and survival.ity,” Hradek said, referring to the mid-2010s.
The long contracts provided predictability and stability for the companies involved, but their industry and the broader economy have changed dramatically since then, with labor experts saying unions and their members may feel they need to make up for lost time.
“There are a lot of things that people weren't thinking about in 2015 that are a big challenge now, such as surviving a global pandemic that has stopped global travel and a sharp rise in the cost of living after years of virtually zero inflation,” said Barry Eidlin, assistant professor of sociology at McGill University.
Eidlin also notes that strikes by non-airline workers have been a motivating factor in recent years.
“Workers' expectations go up after … other workers go on strike and get bigger contracts. Then, on the management side, three or four decades of getting used to not actually having to give up much at the bargaining table,” he said.
“You have a clash of divergent expectations.”
Should passengers expect new strikes?
Relations between airlines and unions can be frosty in some cases as labor disputes die down and other negotiations continue.
The union representing its flight attendants, CUPE, told the participants he believes that Air Canada is “disengaged from union and employee issues” and that issues are being resolved at a “glacial pace” with “touchy feelings on all sides.”
But this dispute is now subject to binding arbitration; Air Canada flight attendants won't be canceling these flights anytime soon, no matter how frosty relations may be.
At WestJet, cabin crew will be looking for a new deal after their contract expires on December 31. These workers are represented by another CUPE branch, but have already begun work. public campaigns against the company.
The company told CBC News it is currently in negotiations and is “interested in understanding their priorities” as it works toward a collective agreement that is “also sustainable” for WestJet.
Hradek, the industry expert, estimates that contract disputes at a carrier like Westjet may not begin until the end of May, if not later.
And at Air Canada, baggage claim agents, mechanics and other ground staff are also negotiating. When (or whether) disruptions occur will depend on the next few months.
The company told CBC News in a statement that renegotiating collective bargaining agreements is “normal and beneficial for any unionized business.” The company also said it has a “long and successful track record of negotiating new contracts with our unions.”
Porter passengers may want to consider alternatives as soon as possible, since the airline and its controllers have yet to reach an agreement and the union has already voted in favor potential strikealthough they remain in negotiations.
What about government intervention?
The federal government has intervened in labor disputes between airlines and unions for years, including a 2025 dispute involving Air Canada and a 2024 WestJet mechanics strike.
While orders for union members to return to work have not always been followed recently, with CUPE members apparently defying the order, labor experts and lawyers note that employers can rely on the government to exercise this power.
“This is not a strategy that can be widely used in any other industry,” said Sandeep Gokhale, an employment lawyer who often represents the management side of labor relations.
“It should be quite limited, but airlines recognize the impact on Canadians is quite significant.”
But Eidlin notes that the continued hope that the federal government will order unions back to work could actually lead to more difficult negotiations in the future, which could then lead to more labor disputes.
“It changes employers' expectations of what will happen if they don't negotiate,” he explained, noting that if the worst-case scenario if a deal is reached is that the federal government forces everyone back to work instead of a long strike, the employer won't face a costly crisis.
“The result is that employers will drag their feet at the bargaining table,” Eidlin said.
How to avoid the consequences of labor disputes?
Without hope for a negotiated settlement, it can be difficult to avoid travel disruption if a deal is up in the air when you're hoping to literally be up in the air.
One Canadian traveler told CBC News she now checks the length of contracts to assess the level of risk before choosing an airline.
“This gives me an idea of whether the flight I choose will be at risk of cancellation since I'm booking it in advance, and I can make an informed decision,” said Merrill Carmichael, based in Ancaster, Ont.
“You can go online and just type in 'WestJet flight attendant expiration date' and it will come up right away,” she said, explaining that she then looks at the number of months between the contract expiration and the time she wants to travel to see if she might be in what she calls a “risk zone.”
Hradek anticipates that passengers may not see any outright disruptions or cancellations until the summer. He suggests concerned travelers buy refundable standby tickets or travel insurance that covers labor disputes.
Government intervention could still be a factor, says lawyer Gokhale, given that thousands of Canadians facing travel disruptions are one of the main consequences of the contract dispute.
“Depending on what position the UN takesions will take – and they will take an aggressive stance – I think we'll start to see more stopsages and strikes, and the government will have to intervene if the parties cannot reach a solution,” Gokhale said.
For their part, unions say they understand this is a concern for Canadians.
“The airline is paying the price, the employees are paying the price, the people traveling are paying the price,” said Capt. Tim Perry, president of the Air Line Pilots Association of Canada, which represents pilots at Air Canada, WestJet, Air Transat and Porter.
“When we sit around the table trying to reach a collective agreement, what we're really trying to do is create stability. Because the collective agreement is what brings stability,” Perry said.
