Welcome to the online version From the politics departmentnewsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today's episode, Catherine Doyle examines how President Donald Trump's base is supporting him as he steps up pressure on Venezuela, and what the tipping point could be. Additionally, Ben Camisar and Stephen Pettigrew examine county-level results in last month's Virginia gubernatorial election for clues about next year's midterm elections.
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— Adam Wallner
After Trump promised 'no new wars', Venezuela escalation could test MAGA tolerance
Analysis by Catherine Doyle
President Donald Trump's political base has offered little resistance to his escalating pressure campaign on Venezuela, even as he moves closer to the kind of military confrontation he has long criticized in other countries.
After winning last year, Trump said in his victory speech that he is “not going to start wars, I'm going to stop wars,” praising a “strong” US military that “ideally we don't need to use.” And this year he denounced decades of US foreign policy in the Middle East, denouncing “Western interventionists” who gave other countries “lectures on how to live.”
That position was tested when his administration seized an oil tanker and Trump suggested the U.S. might conduct ground operations aimed at removing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The administration's campaign has already resulted in more than 26 boat strikesresulting in the deaths of at least 98 people, including double tap strike is now under scrutiny by Congress.
Earlier this week, the president said he was ordering “total and complete blockade” sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela, accusing its government of using oil revenues to finance illegal activities such as “narco-terrorism.”
The unfolding campaign has become a test of whether Trump's political coalition will tolerate the use of force as long as it remains targeted and does not result in American casualties, political analysts and administration allies told NBC News.
“MAGA loves to blow up boats,” said Rachel Bovard, vice president of programs at the Conservative Partnership Institute. “They don't want a land war with Venezuela.”
While proponents of “America First” questioned Trump's attention to other international issues — including Ukraine, Israel and a host of peace efforts in the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia — they appear to be holding their fire on Venezuela for now.
What the November elections in one key state mean for the battle for the House of Representatives
Ben Camisar and Stephen Pettigrew
As both parties seek to redraw the boundaries of Congress ahead of next year's midterm elections, Virginia represents one of Democrats' best chances to stifle Republican attempts to strengthen their majority in Congress.
It is unclear whether Virginia Democrats will be able to take decisive action and successfully change their map in next year's elections. But either way, the results of this November's election show how a vibrant Democratic Party could regain control of the House of Representatives next year.
Strong turnout helped propel Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger into more Republican-leaning areas, and Spanberger improved Democrats' 2024 lead in a wide range of congressional districts, a new NBC News Decision Desk analysis of the gubernatorial race results found.
Throughout the year, President Donald Trump's strong performance in 2024 among nonwhite voters and younger voters has served as something of a starting point for Republicans, who at his direction have sparked a redistricting arms race that is expected to continue into next year. The Virginia gubernatorial election results, broken down by congressional district, underscore how quickly voters can move from one election to another and highlight some of the risks associated with extraordinary efforts.
Virginia's congressional delegation is narrowly divided, with six Democrats and five Republicans. But last month, Spanberger won not only every district her party represents, but also two Republican-controlled districts.
Spanberger posted gains of more than 7 points each from 2024 over Kamala Harris in the districts of GOP Reps. Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans.
While the electorate that faces next year's midterm elections will not be the same as the one that helped Spanberger win, these results suggest that even if Democrats don't redraw their districts, Wittman and Kiggans could face strong re-election challenges next year.
Read more from Ben and Stephen →
🗞️ Other top news of today
- 📉 Some economic relief: Inflation fell to 2.7% in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Continue reading →
- 🎙️ Summary of the speech: Trump used prime time performance last night mock his predecessor, argue that his economic plan is working and suggest that Americans be patient as his policies begin to bear fruit. $1,776 BonusIt will cost approximately $2.6 billion and will be paid for from the military housing fund.
- 🏥 New health department: The Trump administration has announced it will begin taking steps to end transitional care for minors across the country. Continue reading →
- 🌳 In the weeds: Trump signed an executive order to speed up the reclassification of cannabis, clearing the way for the Food and Drug Administration to study its medical use. Continue reading →
- 🏛️ What's in the title: The board of the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., has voted to rename it the Trump-Kennedy Center, although such a move may require congressional approval. Continue reading →
- 🤝Let's get down to business: Trump Media is teaming up with a nuclear fusion company. Continue reading →
- 🚫 If you think about it: The Democratic National Committee will not release its completed study of the 2024 election, which was ordered by Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin shortly after his election. Continue reading →
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That's all there is to the policy department for now. Today's newsletter was written by Adam Wallner.
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