It's been a difficult year for Canada
and judging by last month's figures, recovery is still a long way off.
The fall market was essentially a “non-event” as homebuyers played a waiting game with the growing ranks of sellers.
assistant chief economist for
.
Home sales were flat since July, falling 0.6% in November from the previous month, nearly erasing a small gain in October, he said.
“Whether buyers' measured approach is tactical or driven by caution amid economic uncertainty, the message is the same: use a strong hand to force sellers to lower prices in many markets,” Hogue said.
The MLS composite home price index has declined 0.7 percent over the past four months and is now 3.7 percent lower than a year ago.
According to online realtor Zoocasa.
only a third of Canada's major markets saw price increases since January.
Quebec has seen staggering growth this year, with prices rising more than 11 percent to $432,400, followed by Montreal with the second-highest increase. Prices rose modestly in Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina.
However, most markets aren't doing so well, with benchmark prices falling in 10 of the 16 Canadian regions Zoocasa included in its study.
Ontario led the decline in prices this year. The benchmark price in the Greater Toronto Area fell $132,500 to $956,800 between January and October, a drop of more than 12 per cent.
Hamilton/Burlington and Kitchener-Waterloo weren't far behind, with prices down 10 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively. Prices in London/St. Louis. Thomas fell nearly 10 percent, down $61,800 to $561,400.
Ottawa's 6.3 per cent decline in home prices outpaced the Greater Vancouver Area, where prices fell 5.2 per cent.
Canada's housing market stalled even as…
lowered interest rates, and there is a theory that buyers were waiting for even lower rates.
“With the central bank signaling that this cycle is over, this could be the hint some buyers have been waiting for to make a move,” Hogue said.
RBC expects a decline
and price cuts in some markets to attract more buyers in the new year.
“However, the road ahead will be rocky as affordability issues persist in several major markets and sharp declines in immigration pose headwinds,” Hogue said.
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Canada
in the third quarter, the first quarterly decline on record outside of the pandemic.
The population fell 0.2 percent to 41.6 million, a sharp shift from the immigration boom of 2023 and 2024. The decline was driven by a record drop in the number of non-permanent residents as Prime Minister Mark Carney continued Justin Trudeau's policy of reducing the number of international students, temporary workers and asylum seekers.
“The major population adjustment is well underway and remains one of the biggest economic stories in Canada,” Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.
The impacts BMO is seeing include a weaker rental market, a tighter job market for young people, and increases in productivity and real GDP per capita.
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Today's Posthaste was written by Pamela Haven with additional reporting by staff from the Financial Post, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.
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