ESPN Elimination Challenge is one of the most exciting games this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team and if they win (or draw) you move on to the next round. If they lose, you're out. Caveat: You cannot select the same command twice. If you're one of the 0.7% of participants who have made it this far, give yourself a pat on the back.
At this point in the season, it's vital to keep an eye on the picks in your group, especially in a week where one team is overwhelming.
Houston Texans will be selected from over half of the remaining Eliminator participants at the start of the week. These are available to 58% of Eliminator Challenge participants, but this varies by group. The more teams the Texans have available, the more valuable their disappearance becomes.
Two weeks ago Tampa Bay Buccaneers found themselves in a similar situation, receiving about 50% selection against New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers lost this game outright. However, while the Buccaneers were 8.5-point favorites, the Texans are 14.5, making it much less likely that their fade will pay off.
Outside of the Texans, the only double-digit favorites are Buffalo Bills. If available, bills are the preferred option as big favorites with few choices. Otherwise, there will be a significant decrease in the probability of winning in favor of the next best teams, who will have a hard time avoiding a victory over Houston. Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and the Saints are the best of the rest, but they all carry more risk.
Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge Cheat Sheet
The Bills are the second favorite in the betting market, according to Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. Their selection will be limited as only 13% of users still have them in stock. They host the Jets in Week 18, so there's a reason to save them, but then there have to be other strong options. The Browns are ranked as the worst team in the NFL, according to ESPN Analytics, and are playing their worst offensive game of the season according to EPA per game.
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Mike Clay's chance to win: 78% (second)
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ESPN Analytics Odds of Winning: 80% (second)
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DraftKings Sportsbook Line: -10 bills (-575 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Qualifiers: 7% (fourth)
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Eliminator Challenge Availability: 13%
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Remaining schedule: FI, GO
Based on Mike Clay's model, this is the most lopsided matchup in three weeks. It's nearly impossible to explain how the Raiders can move the ball against the Texans' second-ranked defense. The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 12 games, while the Texans have won six in a row. Each of the picks after the Texans lose significant win probability, making them difficult to rank lower.
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Mike Clay's chance to win: 93% (first)
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ESPN Analytics Odds of Winning: 80% (first)
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DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Texans -14.5 (moneyline -1650)
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Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Qualifiers: 51% (first)
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Eliminator Challenge Availability: 58%
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Remaining schedule: in LAC, Indiana
Although the Lions and Steelers have identical records, ESPN Analytics ranks the Lions as the second-best team in the NFL and the Steelers as the 18th-best. The betting market agrees with the gap as the Lions are third favorites this week. The Lions have won 15 straight games since the loss. They're also only available at 9% and end the season with two away games, so they'll have little choice and won't have any value going forward.
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Mike Clay's chance to win: 69% (5th place)
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ESPN Analytics Odds of Winning: 66% (5th place)
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DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Leo -7 (-325 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Qualifiers: 1% (8th place)
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Eliminator Challenge Availability: 9%
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Remaining schedule: in MIN, in CHI
The Commanders were a great team that faded throughout the season. While they were beating New York Giants They had previously lost eight games in a row last week. During that nine-game stretch, they rank last in the NFL in defensive EPA per game. The Eagles have had their ups and downs all season, but against a bad Commanders team they are one of the big favorites of the week, even on the road. Just be sure to wait until Week 18, where the Eagles host the Commanders for their second meeting in three weeks.
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Mike Clay's chance of winning: 70% (fourth)
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ESPN Analytics Odds of Winning: 68% (fourth)
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DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Eagles -6.5 (moneyline -310)
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Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Qualifiers: 17% (second)
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Eliminator Challenge Availability: 41%
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Remaining schedule: in BUF, WSH
Believe it or not, according to Mike Clay's model, the Saints are the third favorites this week. Over the past three weeks, the Jets rank third in both offensive and defensive EPA per game, while the Saints rank 22nd in offense and 10th in defense. Since joining the Saints the record is 3-3. Tyler Shaw with consecutive victories. ESPN Analytics has the difference between these teams at a neutral site at 3.3 points, and since the Saints have a home field, they are a pick.
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Mike Clay's chance to win: 74% (third)
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ESPN Analytics Odds of Winning: 64% (sixth)
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DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Saints -4.5 (-218 moneyline)
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Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Qualifiers: 3% (seventh)
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Eliminator Challenge Availability: 99%
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Remaining schedule: in TEN, in ATL
The Chiefs opened last week as 11.5-point favorites. Now the spread is 3.5 after Patrick Mahomesinjury and the Chiefs being eliminated from the playoffs. However, ESPN Analytics sees value in the Chiefs, ranking them as the third favorite this week. The Titans are the second-worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics and the only team this season without a home win.
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Mike Clay's chance to win: 67% (sixth)
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ESPN Analytics Odds of Winning: 69% (third)
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DraftKings Sportsbook Line: Executives -3.5 (money line -198)
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Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Qualifiers: 6% (fifth)
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Eliminator Challenge Availability: 31%
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Remaining schedule: THAT LW
