TThe timing is cruel. Just as the world celebrates 10th anniversary Following the passage of the Paris climate agreement this month, new data shows the world is crumbling the main defense it built against climate catastrophe.
The three-year average temperature will exceed the Parisian threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. According to Copernicus Climate Change Service2025 will join 2023 and 2024 as the three warmest years since the Industrial Revolution, reflecting the accelerating pace of the climate crisis.
As temperatures continue to rise—including in the oceans, where the extra heat is leading to more powerful hurricanes—much more serious disasters lie ahead as feedback loops push the planet past irreversible tipping points.
We've already passed our first turning pointthe progressive loss of warm-water coral reefs on which nearly a billion people and a quarter of marine life depend; an event particularly relevant to island countries such as Barbados. We are on on the verge of several moreincluding the death of the Amazon rainforest, the destruction of major ocean currents and the loss of ice sheets, causing sea levels to rise by several meters.
Reducing methane emissions is the fastest and easiest way to slow warming in the short term and prevent new tipping points. We must also reduce carbon emissions as quickly as possible, although most of the climate impacts will occur in the medium to long term. On the contrary, we could avoid almost 0.3C warming by the 2040s by eliminating avoidable methane emissions, starting with emissions from the oil and gas sector. Combined with tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency, this could cut warming rates by a third in 10 years and halve them by 2040.keeping the target at 1.5C.
The European Commission helped launch Global Methane Pledge at Cop26 in Glasgow 2021where today it and 159 other countries support cutting emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. However, this is voluntary and UN reported that current measures, even if fully implemented, would reduce emissions by only 8% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. The urgency of climate requires mandatory action.
The time has come for a binding agreement on methane, starting with the oil and gas sector. Other leaders have joined the call, including Wesley Cimina, President of the Federated States of America. Micronesiaand Feleti Teo, Prime Minister of Tuvalu. French President Emmanuel Macron also expressed support for a binding framework and called for a global alliance dedicated to action on methane.
Despite many past promises and promises, methane emissions from the energy sector continue to grow, so binding agreement becomes mandatory. Many details of the agreement are falling into place. Companies that account for almost 40% of global oil and gas production. promised on Cop28 They include 34 national oil companies, suggesting their governments should be willing to join an agreement that will ensure their promises are kept. Harness EU Methane Regulation bans flaring – and will soon ban leaks – and requires robust measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification for both domestic fossil fuel production and imports.
Brazilian President Lula Inacio Lula da Silva and leaders of more than 80 other countries will roadmap development a phase-out of fossil fuels, the first step of which would be the elimination of methane waste through a binding agreement between willing countries.
Montreal Protocolsigned in 1987, may be a source of inspiration. In addition to starting the restoration of the protective ozone layer, this binding agreement has done more than any other to combat the climate crisis, mainly because the ozone-depleting chemicals it cuts are also powerful warmers. The protocol is on its way to avoid 2.5°C warming by the end of the century this will be a huge contribution. It was agreed upon by a small coalition of willing countries, and completed in less than a year after the opening of official diplomatic negotiations.
The next step is a meeting of heads of state who want to develop a roadmap in 2026 for mandatory measures for the oil and gas industry. An ambitious but challenging timetable would be for this coalition of the willing to begin negotiations in early 2027 and agree to an agreement as soon as possible thereafter. As demonstrated in the Montreal Protocol, transformative change can begin with a few pioneer countries and then spread throughout the world.
A legally binding methane agreement for the oil and gas sector could prevent energy waste while also buying time over the next 15 to 20 years to improve sustainability as research into scaling up decarbonization technologies to commercial levels gains momentum. This will give countries in the south with oil and gas assets the opportunity to tap into the only thing that can finance their path to net zero.
Avoiding energy waste using methane makes sense for industry, as well as for people and the planet. As Aristotle taught us, waste is a form of injustice. There is not much to prevent this from happening.
