YesYou may be feeling stressed after seeing headlines about: “super flu“and comparing the current winter health problems with 2020 and Covid. Amid all the noise, it is difficult to understand how serious this flu really is – and how much of a political underpinning it is. I should start by saying that 'super flu' is not a scientific term and is not used by the scientists or doctors I work with. It is a colloquial phrase that has been used by various NHS England chiefs and has been echoed by Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary and Keir Starmer.
There are several factors at play this year that have made managing the flu season more difficult for hospitals. First, the flu appeared earlier than in previous years. This is not unique to the UK: the same pattern is seen in the US, Canada, Japan, Germany – mainly in the northern hemisphere entering winter. This occurs in the context of multiple viruses circulating, such as Covid and rhinoviruses, meaning patients may be battling one or more viruses at the same time and are more susceptible to getting sick from influenza.
The current level of hospitalizations usually occurs in January, but this is happening a month earlier. According to a recent NHS England dataIn December 2025, flu hospitalizations soared, with figures showing an average of about 2,660 flu patients in hospital each day, the highest level recorded for this time of year and a 55% increase in hospital admissions in just one week. A&E attendances for flu and respiratory illnesses overall have also reached record levels, adding to the strain on emergency services.
When we talk about seasonal flu, the predominant strains circulating are H1N1 and H3N2 (both influenza A) and influenza B. All three are included in this year's flu vaccine. H3N2 is a more severe “flu” than other strains, especially among older people and young children. This winter, a new variant of H3N2 emerged, called K. This strain emerged (by mutation) too late to be included in this year's seasonal vaccine update. This means the vaccine does not provide perfect protection. This is not unusual for seasonal flu vaccines, given how quickly the flu virus mutates.
Does this mean this year's flu vaccine doesn't work? No, not at all. Although not perfect, it does provide partial protection against H3N2 and two other circulating strains. Real data on vaccine effectiveness UK Health Safety Agency shows that even with the dominance of subclade K H3N2, the 2025–2026 seasonal vaccine still provides typical protection: about 72–75% effectiveness against emergency department visits and hospitalizations in children and adolescents, and 32–39% effectiveness in adults. This means that vaccinated people are significantly less likely to end up in hospital compared to unvaccinated people, even if the infection is not completely prevented.
But the UK has faced another challenge this winter: both the uptake and provision of the flu vaccine. Among the risk groups covered by the National Health Service, data for last year indicates that about 40% of people under the age of 65 in clinical risk groups and about 42.6% of children aged two to three years were vaccinated, while vaccination among people aged 65 and over was higher at about 74.9%. We in the public health community have not done a good enough job of educating people about how serious the flu can be and the benefits of vaccination, and making it easy to get a shot.
But what if you're not in the NHS covered group and just don't want to get seriously ill with flu this year? Unfortunately, The UK is currently experiencing a vaccine shortage on the private market, meaning many pharmacies have low or no stock. This is a strange situation. The cost of vaccination (prevention) is borne by people who need to take time off from work, potentially visit several pharmacies to find a vaccine, and pay £18-20. This is time and money that many people would have difficulty finding given their other pressing needs.
But if someone refuses the vaccine and ends up in the hospital, the costs will be borne by National Health Service and cost taxpayers tens of thousands of pounds per hospitalization, plus adding enormous burden to patients. These are incentives that are the opposite of what we should have for individuals.
As for hospitals, the UK government is right to say that they are in critical condition, but this is because they do not have enough spare capacity. As one doctor told me: “Both primary and secondary care are constantly stretched to their limits, so any increase in morbidity causes the system to spiral out of control and into a ‘crisis’.” The hospital authorities are concerned because if December already looks this bad (like a typical January), what will January and February be like? The million dollar question is: have we already reached the peak of the flu (and just had an earlier season), or will the entire baseline be higher in the coming months, which will be very worrying? I don't think anyone knows the answer.
My concern is that we need to be careful not to call this a “super flu.” This is not a new pathogen (such as SARS-CoV-2) that left many people critically ill and for which we had no vaccine, no diagnosis, no treatment, and no prior immunity in the global population. Exaggeration also carries the risk that if we do see a step change in the virus – e.g. Avian influenza H5N1 – causes person-to-person transmission of the virus with a high mortality rate, resulting in people becoming less sensitive to public health information. Covid was a once-in-a-century pandemic. I don't think you can compare what's happening now to this at all.
The NHS is struggling and in crisis, but not because of a “super flu”. It is struggling because the flu season is early, vaccines provide partial protection against a mutated circulating strain, the seasonal flu vaccine is poorly received and unavailable, and the health service is in critical condition every winter. And finally, is it too late to get vaccinated? Not at all – I highly recommend you find your local pharmacy stocked and stay protected this holiday season.
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Professor Devi Sridhar is Head of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh.
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