On Saturday the President Donald TrumpRussian envoy John Cole said that the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko promised to stop weather balloon flights from his country to Lithuania.
This comes just days after the Lithuanian government was forced to declare a national emergency in response to a sharp increase in the number of hot air balloons flying across the border from Belarusmany of them are involved in cigarette smuggling.
Experts estimate that about 600 smuggling-related balloons and 200 drones entered Lithuanian airspace last year, leading to a temporary border closure and causing chaos at Vilnius airport.
The balloons are believed to have carried tens of thousands of smuggled cigarettes across the border. Over the weekend, authorities said they seized nearly 40,000 packs of cigarettes from just 11 balloons.
An officer inspects a balloon on which cigarettes were transported to Lithuania (State Border Guard Service, AP)
Typically, balloons cross the border at night to avoid detection. Once they land, the illegal couriers use SIM/GPS-enabled tracking devices to pinpoint their location.
Lukashenko, close ally Russiadenies government involvement in smuggling, claiming it is carried out by criminals taking advantage of low prices in his country.
But Pavel Slunkin, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says this kind of smuggling is “built into the government.” In his opinion, the balloons could be a ploy to force Lithuania into negotiations with Lukashenko's dictatorial regime.
Relations between Lithuania and Belarus have long been tense, but tensions escalated in October when Lithuania closed two border crossings between the countries for three weeks. Belarus responded by banning Lithuanian trucks from its roads, stopping trade. Hundreds of cars are still stranded in the country.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko (AFP/Getty)
Why was a state of emergency declared in Lithuania?
Lithuania's border tracking data shows that the number of hot air balloons crossing the country will triple in 2025 compared to the previous year. The latest wave had an unusually destructive impact on aviation, with a cluster of missions centered around Vilnius Airport from October to December.
This prompted the Lithuanian government to declare a “national state of emergency”, which allowed government agencies to more closely coordinate their actions and enlist the support of military units.
Dr Rasmus Nillson, lecturer in Russian foreign policy and post-Soviet politics at University College London, suggests the decision to declare an emergency is due to a lack of trust in NATO.
He said Independent: “Given recent policies and statements coming out of the United States, there are fears in this part of Europe that local NATO members will be abandoned in the face of attacks (hybrid or outright military) from Russia and Belarus.
“While Vilnius may not see such a scenario unfolding in the near future, it sees good reason to highlight potential threats from the east to remind other NATO members of its potentially precarious position on the alliance's eastern flank.”
Hybrid attacks on the west have become more frequent since the war in Ukraine (Archive image) (National Police of Ukraine/AFP v)
Why did hot air balloons destabilize Lithuania?
The balloons have caused major disruptions to flights, with more than 350 delayed, diverted or canceled since October alone. The financial losses associated with this now exceed €750,000.
Mr. Slankin suggests the balloons are part of a more comprehensive strategy. “There is a concept in Russian [and therefore Belarussian] “National strategy,” he said. “They call it 'escalation for the sake of deescalation' – where you increase the stakes for the other side to the point where they are not willing to go that far.”
Belarus, in his opinion, is seeking to escalate tensions in relations with Lithuania, while simultaneously moving closer to the United States, weakening the key alliance. US President Donald Trump has expressed admiration for Lukashenko in the past, calling him a “very respected president.” Cole, his new envoy, visited Minsk on Friday to negotiate the release of 1,400 political prisoners.
President Alexander Lukashenko (right) and US Presidential Envoy John Cole shake hands (press service of the President of Belarus)
How this is part of Putin's “hybrid war”
The Lithuanian government said the emergency was in response to a series of “hybrid attacks” by Belarus, referring to the “hybrid war” Russia waged against Western countries after its invasion of Ukraine.
The term describes a military strategy that combines traditional combat methods with cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and drone incursions. Moscow has consistently sought to distance itself from responsibility for such attacks, but the rise in cases linked to Russia has led most Western governments to conclude that they are part of Putin's strategy.
In the UK, numerous cyber attacks, including those targeting the National Health Service, have been linked to Russia, and drones have been spotted at major airports across Europe. Russia denies any connection.
Mr Slunkin says Lithuania has two options: “You negotiate [with Belarus] or you hope that the EU and other countries will sort the situation out.” For now, Lithuania has chosen the latter.
