Forest fires exploded through the central chili last yearThe murder of 133 people. In California in 2018, 18,000 buildings were destroyed, leading to damage in the amount of $ 16 billion ($ 24 billion, 12 billion pounds). Portugal, Greece, Algeria and Australia felt grief and economic pain in recent years.
Since the headlines, around the world, in the heading of the dead and loss of a billion dollars from forest fires, and increasing temperatures caused by the climatic crisis, which create Tinderbox conditions.
For the first time, scientists say that they clearly demonstrated that the number of “public catastrophic” forest fires – those that greatly amaze the economies and take lives – increased around the world as global heating bites.
“We are witnesses of a fundamental shift in how forest fires influence society,” said the Australian scientist D -Rr Kalm Calm Cunningham, who led research Published in the journal ScienceThe field “Climate change lays the basis for these disasters.”
Looking at the 200 most expensive fires in the period from 1980 to 2023, which was built from the private database supported by global re-expendation of the Munich of Re-Tension were clear.
Of the 200 most destructive fires since 1980, that is, fires with the highest direct costs compared to GDP of each country – 43% have occurred over the past 10 years.
Half of fires that cost $ 1 billion. The United States or more, also have been over the past 10 years. For 44 years, the frequency of fires causing 10 or more deaths in the triple has been analyzed, while the population grew by only 1.8 times.
The temperature and dryness of the atmosphere and vegetation – all factors contributing to fires – all of them have become much worse in the period from 1980 to 2023.
Half of forest fires occurred, while local weather conditions were 0.1% in the worst as a result of fire hazard.
Anxious regularity
Many studies have found that weather conditions that contribute to fires around the world worsen and occur more often from global heating.
But the last major study that watched all over the world at the expense of these forest fires, and related to death, was in 2016 and did not find any trends.
According to the authors, the period since then was “emphasized by large firefighters with anxious regularity.”
“We went in search of this study showing that everything is getting worse. We intuitively felt that they were, but there were no research, ”said Cunningham from the Fire Center of the University of Tasmania.
“Climate skeptics captured this gap, so we hope that this is putting the idea to bed that it does not deteriorate. Everything becomes worse.
“This is unambiguous, and it is clear that climate change plays a role. These are not just large fires, these are fires that arise under more and more extreme weather conditions that make them uncontrollable. ”
He said that the results indicate the need to quickly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but it is also better to control forests close to populations. The public can help, performing maintenance to stop the coals to penetrate the buildings and clean fuel like leaves.
Another unchue influence, which can contribute to the deterioration of the trend, included the number of people living close to forests and the abandonment of agricultural areas.
The authors stated that the trends came, despite the “fussy fire suppression costs” – federal expenses of the United States to suppress the fire, for example, more than tripled from 1985 to 2022.
“These expenses probably limit (or mask) the fire crisis, but do not compensate for it,” they wrote.
The number of deaths from fires was probably a rough underestimation. One database recorded 19 direct deaths from fires in Indonesia in 2015, but as a result, air pollution was connected in about 100,000 premature deaths from respiratory problems.
Roadmap to a catastrophic disaster
When the researchers looked at areas with a high risk of fires close to populations, they found that this is a deadly combination of 10% of the planet’s surface.
These areas included January fires in Los -Angeles, with direct losses estimated at 65 billion US dollars – “probably the most road fire disaster in history” – and fires in 2024 in Valparaiso, Chile, which suffered 135 lives.
Both of these disasters occurred after the end of the analysis of the data, which suggests that the methods were able to predict places in risk.
“This provides a road map for where the following catastrophic disasters will take place,” Bowman said.
Dr. Hamish Clark, an expert on fire and climate change at the University of Melbourne, not involved in the study, said: “This is an important new article that puts some difficult figures on many discussed topics – global trends and drivers of socially and economically harm to fires.
“Unfortunately, the news is not very good – fires kill more people and bring more costs to the economy around the world.”
