Welcome to Vegas! For the third time in as many seasons NBA The Cup heads to Sin City for its dramatic conclusion, and the league couldn't have asked for a more compelling group of finalists. Defending champion (June version, not cup version) Oklahoma City Thunderthe league's brightest young star Victor VembanyamaEastern Conference favorite New York KnicksAnd Orlando Magicwho are now 14-6 since their 1-4 start.
All four finalist players have earned at least six figures, but there's still plenty of money on the line. The losers of the semi-finals will receive $102,994 per player, while the loser of the championship match will double that figure and receive $205,988. The winner of the entire tournament gets $514,971 per player, but frankly, you're more interested in how you can make money off this thing than the players. Luckily, we've got you covered. Below are our best bets for both semi-final matches on Saturday.
Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks
The Magic have had a bit of a reputation for playing with injuries lately, but which injuries are important here? The Magic turned their season around Paolo Banchero left the game, but they're 31-27 without him in the lineup since he was a rookie. Now Banchero is back, but just like last season, Franz Wagner was soon injured. For Magic, this is a more serious stomach injury. Orlando is 13-22 without Wagner in the lineup over that same period. Magic lineups with Banchero but without Wagner are outscoring by 5.7 points per 100 possessions this season, making the Knicks a safe bet, especially now that And Anunoby back in action. Pick: Knicks -5.5.
I'm leaning towards this for several reasons. The thing is, it's a big game in an unusual setting that starts at a strange time (2:30 local time), and this can lead to gunfights as players cope with the disruption to their daily routine. We have a relatively slow Knicks team on one end of the floor and a Magic team that will play hard on the other, looking to get revenge after Wagner was injured against New York. And here it comes down to history. All NBA Cup games in Vegas that were not played Tyrese Haliburton went under this amount. Of course, it's only four games, so take it with a grain of salt, but as we saw last postseason, Haliburton is immune to pressure. Everyone else seems to play a little tight in bright light, so overall I'm at a slight disadvantage. Choice: less than 224.5.
I have a theory: Paolo Banchero averaged 22.8 shots per game in the playoffs during his career. Is this a playoff game? No. But he tends to happiest making shots in big games, and by regular-season standards, this one fits the bill, especially after Wagner's absence. So, I prefer Banchero for volume. He will hit a lot and hit enough to get into the over. Pick: Banchero over 22.5 points
If you just want to know who will win the game? You should pick the Thunder because they only lost once. Picking them to lose the game is irresponsible. Are you choosing an enemy to cover? A little more believable. The Thunder are just 14-11 against the spread. To be fair, this is mainly because their spreads are usually huge, but that is the case here. Spurs are 10.5 point underdogs. Well, they've only lost three games by double digits all season, and they've never lost by more than 13. The Spurs don't really fall out. Their three-headed security monster De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle And Dylan Harper is as good a response to ball pressure in Oklahoma City as it is in the NBA. The Spurs are a fairly low turnover team and they commit a fair amount of fouls, both of which are useful against the Thunder. Plus, Victor Vembanyama is expected to return. Now that's a nice little cherry on top. Pick: Tottenham +10.5.
«Гром» занимает лишь 15-е место по темпу в сезоне… но четвертое с тех пор Джален Уильямс вернулся в состав. Их самая результативная игра с тех пор, их головокружительная победа в четвертьфинале над командой Солнцанабрал 227 очков, что всего на пол-очка меньше, чем в этой игре. Они добились успеха в пяти других играх за этот период. У «Грома» историческая защита, но если обе команды летают вверх и вниз по площадке, очки могут набираться довольно быстро, даже если они будут действовать не так эффективно. Это две самые спортивные группы НБА, поэтому я ожидаю более атакующей игры. Выбор: больше 227,5
У Вембаньямы возникнет инстинктивное желание проиграть, опасаясь ограничения по минутам. Контрапункт: он набирал в среднем более 30 минут в играх, в которых вернулся после отсутствия в прошлом сезоне. Очевидно, он никогда раньше не возвращался из отсутствия так долго, но “Шпоры” и раньше имели тенденцию позволять ему большую часть его обычной нагрузки в ответных матчах. Плюс, Уэмбаньяма просто наслаждается важными моментами, а в НБА их было очень мало. Вспомните премьеру или поездку в Париж в прошлом году. Ему захочется устроить шоу, особенно против Чет Холмгрен. Я жду фейерверков. Выбор: Вембаньяма больше 17,5 очков
