The asteroid that could kill the cities can still encounter the moon. This is what models Asteroid 2024 Say, after earlier assuming that the probability that the asteroid will affect the Earth in December 2032 was About 3 percentThe field since these past forecasts, the asteroid’s chances of entering the Earth were sunk, while its chances of hitting the moon grew. Today, the probability of lunar exposure sits in About 4 percentField
Despite this low probability, scientists are already considering possible prevention strategies aimed at deviating or destroying an asteroid to its potential exposure. In fact, a team of scientists, including several scientists from NASA, published a preliminary document about Arxiv In September 2025, weighing possible interventions, and one of the options is an asteroid explosion with nuclear devices.
But what exactly will happen if scientists begin a nuclear explosion on the surface or near the surface of 2024, and what will happen if they do not?
Read more: Asteroid has a 1% chance to influence the Earth in 2032 – should we worry?
Nuking Asteroid 2024 YR4
Although testing this idea is limited, it is believed that nuclear devices can reject or destroy 2024.
To reject the asteroid, scientists would blow up a nuclear device around a strategically selected surface, destroying one of their faces and changing its course by creating traction. Meanwhile, in order to destroy the asteroid, scientists will shoot at the nuclear device directly to their core, breaking it to meet.
According to the authors of the study, a nuclear deviation is impossible during 2024, regardless of whether scientists re -use the old spaceship or build new ones.
“The defect missions were evaluated and seemed inappropriate,” the team said in its article due to the lack of information about the structure of the asteroid.
Indeed, while scientists have a feeling of asteroid diameter – About 220 feet on the diameter, according to NASA – Less is known about its mass and composition, which will deeply affect any plan of nuclear deviation. And although the reconnaissance mission can reveal more about the asteroid, there is not much time for such a mission, and return the details necessary to develop the nuclear deviation approach until 2024.
“The best options for reconnaissance missions issued at the end of 2028,” the authors of the study in their article added, “leaving only about three years for development.”
Nuclear destruction or reliable violation
The best option, the team claims, is a nuclear “reliable violation” or destruction – to break the asteroid before it approaches two nuclear devices. Only one of these devices would probably destroy the asteroid, the authors of the study proposed in their article, leaving the second device as a backup, “if necessary”.
The development of such missions can start immediately, which will allow additional years of planning. “Misses for nuclear stable violations are also available,” the team added in the article, “with launches between the end of 2029 and the end of 2031.”
Other non -nuclear options are also suitable for consideration, deflecting or destroying an asteroid, breaking it with a spaceship. With these “kinetic” options, the deviation is again less achievable than destruction, while the “reliable violations” mission are available “with launches from April 2030 to April 2032, according to the document.
Read more: Asteroid-killer city will not hurt the Earth, but instead it can hit the moon
An approach without well?
Of course, another option is to do nothing. Although the impact from 2024 would not have changed the orbit of the moon, this will create another massive crater on the lunar surface, sending significant garbage towards the earth. While most of this garbage will burn in the Earth’s atmosphere, some will remain around, increasing the effects of micrometeoroids and threatening satellites, including ISS and astronauts inside it.
According to the authors of the study, strategies for the prevention of asteroids should be planned, whether the 2024 models continue to predict the collision.
“The lunar effect is most likely excluded either in 2028, when the asteroid makes its nearest approach to the moon until 2032, the team added to its article. “Even if it excludes the lunar effect, there is significant potential usefulness in the deployment of an intelligence mission in the characteristics of an asteroid.”
Read more: The chances of the city killer of the asteroid, acting on the moon raised from 3.8 to 4.3 percent
Article Sources
Our authors c Discovermagazine.com Use reviewed research and high -quality sources for our articles, and our editors are a review for scientific accuracy and editorial standards. View the sources used below for this article:
