The body of just one Israeli hostage remains in the Gaza Strip as a key milestone nears completion President Donald Trump's 20-point ceasefire plan for the enclave, but there are serious obstacles to the planned second stage.
Doubts remain over whether negotiators can overcome these obstacles, even as they face new pressure to move to Stage 2, a step designed to prevent any return to high level of violence that preceded the ceasefire.
Last week, Trump noted that phase two would begin “pretty soon,” without giving a more specific timeline. Axios reported this On Thursday, the White House hopes to announce a second phase before Christmas and unveil a new management structure for the enclave, citing two US officials and a Western source directly involved in the process.
The second phase of Trump's plan calls for the creation of a new governance mechanism in the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of Hamas and the formation of an international stabilization force known as the ISF, which will take over responsibility from the Israel Defense Forces, currently occupying part of the Gaza Strip.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, whose country has played a key role in a series of international talks, said on Saturday the talks were at a “critical” juncture. The mediators were working together to advance the next phase of the ceasefire, he said during a discussion at the Doha Forum conference in Qatar.
“The truce cannot be completed until there is a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops. [until] There is stability in the Gaza Strip, people can come and go, which is not the case today,” he said.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatti told the conference that an international stabilization force was needed “as soon as possible,” while Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Bart Eide said measures should be taken this month, warning that the current ceasefire “cannot continue for many more weeks at the current stage.”
As the international community hopes for progress, the ceasefire's trajectory so far highlights both its fragile gains and its ongoing vulnerabilities.
Since the ceasefire came into force on October 10, 20 living hostages and the remains of another 27 were returned to Israel. The body of the final hostage, Rana Gwili, a 24-year-old policeman killed in a Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has still not been found despite a week-long search. Israeli authorities have consistently released Palestinian prisoners and detainees—both living and dead—as part of the exchange.
Israel has repeatedly said that all hostages must be returned before a Phase 2 deal is reached, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week stressed the need for “intense and immediate efforts” to meet the commitments.
Israel agreed to stop its offensive on the Gaza Strip during the ceasefire, but violence has continued to flare up and violence has continued: Israeli strikes have killed more than 350 people since the ceasefire began, resulting in deaths enclave beyond 70,000, According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
The first phase also included a commitment to expand the flow of aid to Gaza. but UN experts say the number of trucks allowed in never reached the agreed target of 600 per day.
Israel said the Rafah crossing in southern Gaza would soon reopen to allow Palestinians to enter Egyptbut he will not open the passage in both directions (another obligation under the agreement) until Gwili's remains are returned.
And while Phase 1 moves forward, analysts warn that Phase 2 presents a host of complex challenges, from security measures to competing management requirements, that could slow or even stall the process.
Negotiators are “trying to square circles that simply cannot be squared,” said H.A. Hellyer is a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank in London.
He questioned whether the international stabilization force could truly eliminate Hamas, a goal that Israel had failed to achieve after two years of “brutal” military operations. Although Trump's peace plan calls for Hamas to disarm, the group regained control of the Gaza Strip in the first phase of the ceasefire and showed no immediate signs of disarmament.
Disarming Hamas through military intervention “is not really something that any other power would be interested in doing,” he told NBC News.
And when it comes to governing Gaza, Hellyer added: “Trump can create his own peace council,” referring to the group that would sit at the top of Gaza's leadership structure under Trump's plan, but “you can't just impose it on the ground without the cooperation of the population, unless you just want to turn it into a new type of occupation.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Saturday that negotiations over the Gaza Stabilization Force were ongoing, including their mandate and rules of engagement, and that their main goal should be to separate Israelis and Palestinians along the border.
“There are thousands of details and questions,” Fidan said. “I think once we deploy the ISF, the rest will follow.”
But Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, echoed Hellyer's concerns, noting that so far “no state has agreed to support its forces in the Gaza Strip and potentially and ultimately engage in confrontation with Hamas.”
Gerges also feared that “we will never see the actual implementation of what Phase 2 was supposed to be,” adding that calling what was happening in Gaza a ceasefire was “an illusion” “as Palestinians, especially civilians, continue to be killed on a daily basis.”
“Although the humanitarian situation of the Palestinians has improved slightly, it remains catastrophic,” he said.
