The Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., was buzzing with activity and speculation Thursday ahead of Friday's crucial draw for the 2026 men's World Cup.
The expanded tournament, to be held next summer in Canada, the United States and Mexico, will feature 48 teams, and their vastly different rankings, as well as the state of global politics, have made assembling 12 starting groups a delicate proposition.
Countries will be selected from four baskets, scattered by relative strength. As co-host, Canada has a spot in Pot 1 despite being ranked 27th.th in the world, meaning it will not have to face the United States or Mexico, or major powers such as Argentina, France, England or Spain, in the group stage.
The Canadians, who failed to earn a single point in their two previous World Cup appearances in 1986 and 2022, will still need to qualify for the playoffs. In a mock draw under the bright lights of the Kennedy Center on Thursday, Canada pulled South Korea from Pot 2, Paraguay from Pot 3 and the winner of the March playoff between Ukraine, Poland, Sweden and Albania from Pot 4.
This would be a favorable group given the opportunity. Every pot has its own dangers and opportunities, and Canada's fate will largely depend on Friday's draw.
pot 2
Every team in Pot 2 is seeded higher than Canada. The lowest seed is Australia – 26.thwhich beat Canada 1-0 in an unsuccessful October friendly in Montreal. The first place is occupied by Croatia, 10th place.th-the best team in the world.
Croatia would be a worse choice for Canada, not just because of its strength. In Qatar 2022, eventual semi-finalists beat Canada 4-1 after then-coach John Herdman infamously told his team to “fuck Croatia.” The Croats did not agree. A second meeting would have its own intrigue, but there are less risky options, both on and off the field.
Iran is not one of them. A report on Thursday said Iran coach Amir Galenoi would attend the draw despite his federation's pledge to boycott visa issues. (Iranian citizens are subject to a U.S. travel ban.) FIFA might want to see 20th-ranked team in the Canadian or Mexican groups, which would free at least one Iranian game from American influence, but normal fan migration would still be difficult.
Despite Australia's recent victory over Canada, a rematch would suit both countries. Australia's only goal was lucky – or unlucky from Canada's point of view – and each side would have liked their chances against the other.
While details of each group stage game won't be confirmed until Saturday, the Pot 2 meeting with Canada will almost certainly be the last, slated for BC Place on June 24. The Pan-Pacific Summit is sure to be a lively, beer-soaked afternoon in Vancouver.
pot 3
Since UEFA will enter the World Cup with 16 teams, each group will have at least one team from Europe, and possibly two. Every team in Pot 3 is, at least according to FIFA rankings, weaker than Canada, and there is a clear argument that it is better to face a European team in Pot 3 than a European team in Pot 2.
Norway is a counterargument. Taken to greater heights by Erling Haaland's first-place goal in the third basket at 29 years of age.this a potential dark horse of the tournament. The Norwegians went undefeated in qualifying, even taking Italy into the UEFA knockout stages, and finished with the best goal difference of any team on the continent.
A match between Canada and Norway, two relentless attacking teams, will be a huge spectacle, and hosting Haaland, one of the titans of the game, will only add to the thrill.
But the dream is to advance from the group, and Canada would have been better off with 61 goals.st.– South Africa ranks lowest among Pot 3 teams.
Pot 4
In many ways, the supposedly weakest teams represent the most defining segment of the bracket. Canada cannot face another CONCACAF team, so Curacao and Haiti are out. Ghana, Cape Verde or New Zealand, the lowest-ranked team in qualifying, would be a random selection, but that would require Canada to pull a European team from the previous pot.
As Thursday's mock draw showed, Canada appears destined to face one of the UEFA playoff winners for the distinguished four spots. Three of them will lead to competitive matches – perhaps Ukraine, Türkiye or Denmark.
But due to the amazing dominance of Norway, the mysterious Italy, 12thThe team ranked number one in the world is part of UEFA Path A. The Italians are favorites to survive the knockout stage, which also includes Wales, Bosnia and Northern Ireland, and if they do, their exit from the same pot with Curacao, the smallest country to qualify in history, seems almost unfair.
The only silver lining for Canada if it pulls the dire lot: Pot 4 would be the opening match, scheduled for June 12 in Toronto. If there's one way to ensure Canada starts its home World Cup in style, it would be against Italy, steps away from College Street, on a sunny afternoon – a hot one in more ways than one.
