Four ways the US government shutdown could end

Welcome to the release of 2025. On Tuesday evening, the US Senate could not adopt a bill on expenses that would ensure the financing of the US government, and for the first time in almost seven years, federal operations were sharply reduced.

At some point, this closure – like everything that before it will end. This can take days; This can take weeks, but ultimately, with the growth of public pressure and political pain, one or the other side will yield.

Here are four scenarios of how it can play.

Senate democrats shot down a bill on republicans that would support the government to work until November, but this vote could contain the seeds of their defeat.

While forty -four democrats (and the republican iconoclabor Rand Paul) voted “no”, two democrats and one of them, independent of the Democrat, independent of the republican majority.

Independent Angus King from the state of Maine is always a slightly substitute sign. John Fetterman from Pennsylvania throughout the year scored his own path. But Katherine Cortes Masto from Nevada, although not a liberal firefighter, is not your typical political individual.

However, the next year, she was re -elected to a re -election in the state, which Donald Trump transferred in 2024 and which for many years was gradually a Republican.

In her statement explaining her vote, she expressed concern about the fact that the government of the economy would have in Nevada. She may also be concerned about how this can lead to her political prospects as the current president in the electoral ballot when voters are angry.

She is not the only member of her party from the Battle State, which will be in the ballot ballot in 2026. Democrats in Georgia, Virginia and Colorado could also begin to feel heat.

And although the actors from Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire decided to resign, and not run for the re-election, they may worry that the closure also subjected democratic control over their places.

The leader of the Republican Senate John Tong says that he already hears from some democrats who awkwardly the disconnection is playing. In the coming days, he plans a series of voting financing to maintain pressure.

During the vote on Wednesday, there were no new defects, but if five more democrats are exploding, the stop will end – whether the rest of the democratic party wants this or not.

Even if the democrats remain (relatively) united, the pressure on them to refuse the struggle will probably increase when the stop is delayed.

Government employees are key voting districts in the party, and they will be those who immediately experience pain from the delay in salary and the likelihood that the Trump administration will use the shutdown for further reduction programs and turn their work into constant unemployment.

The American public as a whole will also begin to feel a bite due to reduced public services and economic failures.

As a rule, the party that launches closing and requires political requirements – in this case, democrats – this is the one that is guilty of the public. If so, this happens, the party can conclude that they made as many points as possible, and reduced their losses.

Even without tangible achievements, they can even console the fact that they paved attention to expired subsidies for medical insurance and state medical abbreviations approved by the Republicans for the poor, which will gain tens of millions of Americans in the coming months.

When the play of guilt begins, such thinking begins, they can be better to reap political benefit.

The democratic base, which requires that their party is digging and fighting the Trump administration, will not be completely satisfied, but this is the species with which the party leadership can live.

Currently, Republicans feel that they are in force – and consider new ways to increase the pain, tangible by democrats. But it is possible that they could calculate, and they ultimately turn out to be those who retreat from the void.

In the past, they stood behind most state closures, and the public can also hold them accountable this time. Maybe this is not a habit or, perhaps, because in their zeal, in order to reduce government services and workers, the Republicans outplayed their hand.

In this script, Republicans provide democrats with a sufficient sufficient guarantee that they will help expand health insurance subsidies.

This is not a completely unthinkable scenario, given that the Republicans are currently divided into whether these subsidies should continue that help their own low -income voters, as well as democrats. This would be a concession, which, in the end, could increase their own elections prospects and discharge the obvious line of a democratic attack in the intermediate elections next year.

The Republicans said that they would not negotiate with political hostages, but you can see the ground for a compromise under an overheated rhetoric and rage.

At the moment, of course, an overheated rhetoric, and fierce is a large extent everything that is. Trump is shared by the mocking, obscene AI, generated videos with his opponents. Democrats reacted with photographs of Trump-Epstein and promises that they were in this struggle for a long time.

The last shutdown of the government extended to a record 35 days, ending only after the US air travel was on the verge of mass violations. And this was only a partial closure, since some state funding was approved. This time the consequences can be more serious.

If this extends for a long time, may not matter who will “win”, forcing the other side to fold. There will be more than enough guilt to get around.

In such a scenario “Ospes on both houses”, employees of both sides suffer from the consequences in the urn for voting next year, and the audience becomes even more unhappy with the state of affairs. Then this creates the basis for the next wave of politicians who promise to bring a destructive ball to the status -kVO.

Rinse and repeat.