Welcome to the online version From the politics departmentnewsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
On today's episode, Steve Kornacki talks about today's special election for the House of Representatives in Tennessee. Additionally, Sahil Kapoor reports a lack of optimism in Congress for a deal before health insurance premiums skyrocket.
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— Adam Woolner
What to watch out for tonight in Tennessee?
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
The signs were ominous for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party this fall: falling presidential approval ratings, a widening Democratic lead on the overall congressional ballot and landslide losses in gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey.
Tonight special election for Tennessee's 7th Congressional District I could bring another one. Republican Matt Van Epps still has a shot at winning the seat, but it could be much closer than his party is used to. And if the only independent survey If you take part in the election race, then an upset victory for Democrat Aftin Ben is out of the question.
The district, which includes parts of Nashville, all of Clarksville and parts of suburban and rural middle Tennessee, is typically a GOP bastion. Trump gained 22 points in 2024 and 15 points in 2020. But Democrats fared better in special elections this year, the combination of their hypermotivated base proved disproportionately large, and some swing voters who supported Trump last year turned against him and his party. In the four previous House special elections in 2025, Democrats have posted a net improvement of 16 to 22 points over last year's presidential results.
A similar shift in Tennessee's 7th District would push the margin into single-digit territory, enough to at least give Republicans a run for their money. Not only would this mark another Democratic over-scoring in the special election, but it would also be consistent with what we saw leading up to the 2018 midterm elections in Trump's first term.
Then, as now, Trump's approval ratings were falling and Democrats were making gains in traditionally Republican areas—most notably winning a March 2018 special election in a Pennsylvania district where Trump carried by 23 points in 2016. This proved to be a harbinger of the “blue wave” in November 2018, when Democrats gained 40 seats in the House of Representatives.
Could there be good news for Republicans tonight? If Van Epps ends up winning comfortably (let's say by a solid double-digit margin), so be it. Such a result would mean that Republicans were able to mobilize their base and draw attention to Ben's far-left positions and his past inflammatory rhetoric.
Even as the GOP's troubles have intensified this fall, Democrats as a party continue to perform poorly in the polls. And Republicans are planning a 2026 campaign that will connect Democratic candidates with the party's most strident, left-leaning voices. A big victory tonight will give Republicans hope that this strategy will help them get through difficult times next year.
Steve will go live tonight at 7:45 pm ET to analyze the Tennessee special election results as they come in. You can look at our website, mobile applicationAnd YouTube channel. Kornacki's camera will remain rolling until the race is called by NBC News.
And for greater coverage, Follow our live blog here →
Congressional hopes of reaching a health care deal are fading before insurance premiums soar in January
Sahil Kapoor
Congress has less than a month before health insurance premiums skyrocket for millions of Americans. And hopes for an agreement that would ease that pain are fading among lawmakers in both parties.
“I don't expect that to happen,” said Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich. “We'll keep trying to work on it, but I'm not feeling very good right now… Things aren't going the way I hoped they would.”
Peters was among a group of senators seeking a health care deal when eight Democrats joined with Republicans in voting to reopen the government last month, ending the record shutdown that Democrats had forced to try to extend the Affordable Care Act.
The eight-member group agreed to end the shutdown after Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., promised Democrats they would hold a vote on the health care bill of their choice next week, a promise he repeated Tuesday. But that would require 60 votes, and as Republicans struggle to unite behind their own proposal, Thune said the two sides are still not close to an agreement.
“I haven't seen what the Democrats are proposing yet. I don't think we're close to the 60-vote threshold yet,” Thune told NBC News.
At issue are about $35 billion in subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which was passed in 2021 during the Covid pandemic to lower premiums by capping them for “basic” plans at 8.5% of a member's income.
Democrats prefer an outright extension of expiring ACA funds. Republicans, who control both the House and Senate, have ruled out a pure extension. But GOP leaders have offered no alternative plan to begin negotiations because many rank-and-file Republican lawmakers want to see ACA funds phased out entirely.
🗞️ Other top news of today
- 🚨Exclusive: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was given a final copy of a completed Defense Department inspector general report examining his sharing of sensitive military information in a Signal group chat in March, according to two people familiar with the investigation. The long-awaited report is expected to become public as soon as this week, these people said. Read more →
- ➡️ Consequences of a boat strike: Hegseth pointed to what he called the “fog of war” as he defended the subsequent military strike on a suspected drug ship in the Caribbean that reportedly killed survivors of the initial attack. Read more →
- 🐢Book report: The publisher of Franklin the Turtle condemned the “cruel” use of the children's book character after Hegseth posted the image with the caption “Franklin targets narco-terrorists.” Read more →
- 🌏 Latest news from Russia and Ukraine: Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow for long-awaited talks that Washington hopes will persuade the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine. Read more →
- 🗣️ Updated attack: Trump called Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar “trash” and said Somalis should “go back to where they came from.” Read more →
- 💲 You get Dell: Tech billionaires Michael and Susan Dell have pledged $6.25 billion to create 25 million additional “Trump accounts” for children across the country. Read more →
- 🦡 2026 watch: Former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has entered the race for governor, joining a crowded Democratic primary for an open seat in the critical state. Read more →
- 🚫 2026 watch, continuation: Progressive Party representative Ayanna Pressley spoke about this. Boston Globe that she will not challenge Sen. Ed Markey in the Massachusetts Democratic primary next year. Meanwhile, college football commentator Paul Finebaum said in an interview statement to AL.com that he will not run for the Alabama Senate.
- 🛬 Boarding now: Trump said his administration would begin renovating Dulles International Airport in northern Virginia, saying “it's a terrible airport.” Read more →
- 🎤 Please, please, please: Pop star Sabrina Carpenter condemned a White House video that used one of her songs and appeared to show people being chased and handcuffed by ICE officers, calling it “evil and disgusting.” Read more →
That's all there is to the policy department for now. Today's newsletter was written by Adam Wallner.
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