Lane Kiffin's exit Ole Miss A guessing game began Sunday as oddsmakers tried to figure out how much to downgrade the Rebels to keep the mercurial coach out of the College Football Playoff.
Opinions varied, but four oddsmakers agreed that Kiffin was worth more than four points.
“We're just guessing,” said Chris Bennett, director of sportsbook Circa in Las Vegas, “but we definitely think Lane Kiffin's presence has a big impact on Ole Miss' rankings.”
The Rebels went 25-1 before Kiffin announced he would take the job at LSU and wouldn't coach Ole Miss in the playoffs. The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas cut the Rebels' title odds to 40-1 on Sunday after the news became official.
“The challenge now is to understand the full impact that his departure will have,” Joey Feasel, who oversees football odds at Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN. “It could be minimal or significant, depending on which staff and coaches follow him out the door. Of course, there will be an impact on point spread, but the bigger shift could occur in offensive efficiency. With a defensive-minded coach likely to take the reins, expect the total to decline.”
Veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Chris Andrews was on the low and didn't plan to make much adjustment to his power ratings at Ole Miss after Kiffin left, “assuming someone on the staff takes the reins… 1-1.5 points max.”
“Closer to one unless the market demands otherwise,” Andrews, director of sportsbook South Point, told ESPN.
Ed Salmons, a bookmaker in Las Vegas for more than 40 years, had his power rankings seven teams above Ole Miss before Kiffin left. He planned to drop the Rebels to 12th without Kiffin.
“Let's say Alabama loses. [in the SEC championship game] and they will face Ole Miss [in the CFP first round]“Bama would be in favor there,” SuperBook's Salmons said, adding that the Rebels would have an advantage over the Crimson Tide if Kiffin was still the coach.
“At first you just guess,” Salmons said, “but when these coaches just leave, nothing good usually happens.”
Thanksgiving Losers Fall Among Players
All four NFL underdogs Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals And Chicago Bears — won outright on Thursday and Friday, leading to a Thanksgiving Day rout and chaos in the high-stakes survival competition in Las Vegas.
It's the first time since the NFL expanded to three games on Thanksgiving in 2006 that all three underdogs have won outright on the holiday, and it's the first time an underdog has won outright on Black Friday since the league added the game in 2023.
Circa Survivor, an NFL survival competition with a $1,000 buy-in and $18.6 million prize pool, requires participants to select two winners during Thanksgiving week: one from the Thursday-Friday games and a second from the Sunday-Monday games. On the eve of Thanksgiving, 898 entries were still alive; after the Bears finished off Philadelphia Eagles as of Friday, only 49 entries remained. Philadelphia was the top team in the race for the spot Thursday-Friday.
Two participants failed to submit their selections by the week's deadline and were eliminated.
Circa's higher-stakes survival competition – $100,000 to enter Grandissimo – ended after Thanksgiving and Black Friday setbacks. The remaining six players split the $6.9 million prize pool equally, with each receiving $1.15 million.
NFL Odds and Endings
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Carolina Panthers' complete victory for outsiders with 9.5 points against Los Angeles Rams was the second-worst loss of the season, behind only the Panthers' 13.5 win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 9. Carolina has won seven straight games as an underdog, the most of any team in November of any season in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN research.
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Excluding week 10 when Kansas City Chiefs Were on a date, the reigning Super Bowl favorite has lost four weeks in a row: Chiefs (Week 9), Chiefs (Week 11), Eagles (Week 12) and Rams (Week 13).
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The most popular player prop on Sunday morning on DraftKings was Cleveland Browns defender Sheader Sanders score two-plus touchdowns against San Francisco 49ers.
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The Chiefs were -450 to make the playoffs at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET odds. Before their Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys, the Chiefs were -220 in the postseason, and on Sunday of Week 13 they were -115 to make the playoffs, their biggest chance of the season.
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The underdogs went 9-5 against the spread and 7-7 straight on Sunday afternoon, including games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. The underdogs were 9-2 ATS and 7-4 SU entering Sunday before all three favorites made the late cut.
College Football Odds
Conference Championship Games
(Opening Consensus Lines)
THINGS: Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State -1.5, 57.5
Sun Belt: Troy V James Madison -21, 47.5
American: North Texas -3, 66.5 vs. Tulane
Mountain West: UNLV against. Boise State -1.5, 56.5
Big 12: BYU against. Texas Tech -12.5, 50.5
POPPY: Miami (Ohio) against. West Michigan -2.5, 43
SEC: Georgia -1.5, 47.5 vs. Alabama
ACC: Duke against. Virginia -2.5, 57.5
Big Ten: Indiana against. Ohio -5.5, 48.5
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Salmon from SuperBook said Our Lady will be “more than a field goal but less than a touchdown favorite” compared to Miami if two playoff contenders were playing at a neutral site this week.
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Texas Tech covered the spread in 11 of 12 regular-season games, becoming the first power conference team to finish the regular season 11-1 or better against the spread since 2012 Northwestern.
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Virginia will play Duke in the ACC championship game. At 100-1, the Cavaliers will have the best chance to win the ACC preseason in 15 years.
