An expert at the Israel Democracy Institute warns that MK Boaz Bismuth's haredi project does not ensure real implementation and will not improve military recruitment rates.
Nothing will change from Knesset Member Boaz Bismuth A bill (Likud) to ensure the conscription of haredim (ultra-Orthodox) into the IDF, which is currently being put forward simply so that the government “plays for time,” said Shlomit Ravitsky Tur-Paz of the Israel Democracy Institute. Jerusalem Post on Sunday.
“The numbers are not going up, they're actually going down,” Tur-Paz said of Bismuth's plan for the bill he spearheaded, which was unveiled Thursday.
How Knesset As the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee (FADC) prepares for a long-awaited marathon of meetings on Monday to promote the bill, Tur-Paz spoke to the newspaper about the key issues in the updated plan.
Work on the bill had previously been stopped due to a lack of green light from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Haredi parties in the Knesset.
The two haredi parties left the government in July as a result of negotiations over the bill, which were previously led by former FADC chairman MK Yuli Edelstein (Likud).
Protests against haredi conscription begin in Jerusalem, October 30, 2025. (Photo: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)
Edelstien was removed as head of the committee after the ultra-Orthodox parties left the government, allowing Bismuth to lead the drafting of a new bill, introducing a new scheme with significant changes to Edelstien's version.
Tur-Paz explained that the main drawback of the current scheme is that it has not created real incentives to ensure Haredi conscription for military service.
“The only sanctions that will be applied immediately are weak sanctions that will apply until 23 years,” she said.
Conscription evaders will not be able to leave Israel until they are 23 years old.
She also noted that the two main sanctions under 23 are that draft evaders will not be able to leave the country or obtain a driver's license. However, she said such sanctions are unlikely to change behavior and are not strong enough.
Although stricter sanctions that limit the ability to purchase houses come into effect later, they are also not effective enough since haredim can simply “wait until 26 years,” the year when the sanctions for all draft dodgers on the Bismuth list expire, Tur-Paz said.
A central component of the plan is the definition of the “first draft year.” According to the proposal, the first conscription period begins after the law enters into force and lasts until June 30, 2027.
These deadlines could significantly delay the introduction of haredi conscription, Tur-Paz warned.
“Because it's [haredi enlistment] should start now, and they are going to check it only at the end of the 2026 draft, which ends at the end of June, and only then will we see how many young Haredim have been recruited. Only then will they apply sanctions. Only after this, when we get to the numbers.”
She described the plan as a way for the government to “buy time” and delay the legislative process.
She noted that ultra-Orthodox news outlets have expressed support for the bill, indicating that Haredi adherence to the da'wah is not strict enough.
Another fundamental issue in the draft bill is how it defines who is included in the definition of haredi. Tour-Mir explained.
According to the bill, anyone who studied in a Haredi institution between the ages of 14 and 18 can be classified as haredi, even if they subsequently left the community.
Such inflated categorization results in low actual draft numbers being masked by broader definitions, she said.
Another problem with the bill is that national service could be 10% of the Haredi conscription quota, further reducing the number of IDF soldiers needed, Tur-Paz explained.
MK Dan Illouz (Likud) echoed some of Tur-Paz's concerns about the bill, presenting a 10-point plan on Sunday aimed at strengthening the bill and ensuring true compliance with the Haredi conscription into the IDF.
Bismuth's proposal is expected to face significant political obstacles in both committee discussions and the Knesset plenum, as several coalition members have said they will not support the bill. Other opponents of the bill include Edelstein and Deputy Foreign Secretary Sharren Haskel.
Meanwhile, Channel 12 reported that Likud has asked the Arab Ra'am party to help in the upcoming vote in favor of the bill at the Knesset plenum. On Sunday, Likud completely rejected the report, calling it “totally fake news.”
“This is another baseless fabrication, part of a campaign waged against the new law on conscription,” the party said.
Likud doubled down on its support for the bill, calling it historic and saying it would “bring about 23,000 Haredim into the army for the first time since the creation of the state.” [enlisted] more than three and a half years.”
Tour-Pass highlighted the severity of the personnel crisis in the IDF.
“There is a severe shortage of men,” she said, noting that the army “urgently needs 12,000 recruits.”
Earlier this month, the High Court ruled that the state cannot simultaneously avoid enrolling tens of thousands of yeshiva students and continue to fund their institutions. He ordered the government to come up with a viable enforcement plan within 45 days.
Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara told Netanyahu this week that the ruling requires an immediate end to benefits for non-enrolled students and called on him to form an inter-ministerial group to develop a credible sanctions framework.
Sarah Ben-Nun contributed to this report.
