CARACAS, Venezuela. English phrases once got boring Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro so much so that he urged the audience of his State of the Union address to phase out words like skatepark and fashion.
But now the White House is considering whether it will The US military must strike VenezuelaMaduro is learning English, singing John Lennon's “Imagine,” advocating for peace and dancing to a remix of his latest English catchphrase, “No War, Yes Peace.”
While his turnaround is seen as a sign of desperation by supporters of Venezuela's political opposition, whose leaders have repeatedly told their supporters in Washington that threat of military action will split Maduro's inner circle, months of pressure have yet to lead to defections or a change of government.
Behind this ability to stay in power is a system that harshly punishes disloyal associates and allows loyal ministers, judges, military leaders and other officials to enrich themselves.
“The Bolivarian revolution has a remarkable ability: the ability to unite in the face of external pressure,” said Ronal Rodriguez, a researcher at the Venezuelan Observatory at the Universidad del Rosario in Colombia, referring to the political movement also known as Chavismo, which Maduro inherited from late President Hugo Chavez. “When pressure comes from abroad, they manage to unite, defend themselves and protect themselves.”
At the heart of the “loyalty or punishment” principle are the networks of corruption blessed by Chavez and Maduro that give loyal people the opportunity to become richer. This policy irritated previous attempts to overthrow Maduro and helped him and his close associates circumvent economic sanctions, win a U.S. presidential pardon, and win an election they lost resoundingly.
Rodriguez explained that prison and torture may be part of the punishment, which is typically more severe for those accused of military-related offenses. The strategy has been crucial for authoritarian Maduro to maintain control of the military, which he allows to trade drugs, oil, wildlife and a variety of goods in exchange for coup-proof barracks.
“It was a very effective tool because Chavismo always managed to eliminate those who at some point tried to rebel, and it was able to expose the corrupt actions of all kinds of actors,” Rodriguez said.
Venezuela's political opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado, was counting on military support to oust Maduro after credible evidence emerged that he had lost the 2024 presidential election. But Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and other military leaders supported Maduro, as they did in 2019 while in the barracks. revolt of a detachment of soldiers who pledged allegiance to Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader recognized at the time by the first Trump administration as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.
After returning to office, US President Donald Trump increases pressure on Maduro and his allies, including doubling to $50 million a reward for information leading to his arrest on narco-terrorism charges. A 2020 indictment blames Maduro is led by the Cartel de los Soles, which the US State Department on Monday designated a foreign terrorist organization.
Maduro denies the accusations.
On Saturday, Trump said the airspace is “above and around” South American country should be considered “fully closed”. Maduro's government responded by accusing Trump of being a “colonial threat,” rallying supporters behind what it called an attack on national sovereignty.
In early September, the US military started blowing up boats which the Trump administration blamed for drug trafficking in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific that killed more than 80 people.
Many, including Maduro himself, see US military action as an attempt to end the power of Chavismo. The opposition has only reinforced this sentiment by reiterating its promise to remove Maduro from office.
Two weeks after the first boat strike, Chavismo's loyalty was put to the test when Maduro pilot rejected attempts from the US to join a plot to capture the Venezuelan leader and take him into custody to face charges.
“We Venezuelans are cut from a different cloth,” Bitner Villegas, a member of the elite presidential honor guard, wrote to a retired U.S. officer who tried to recruit him. “The last thing we are is traitors.”
Supporters of the ruling party marched in Caracas on Tuesday to demonstrate what they called the “anti-imperialist spirit” of Chavismo. The march ended with a ceremony in which Maduro raised a bejeweled sword that belonged to South American independence hero Simon Bolivar and asked those present, including cabinet ministers, to swear in the name of God to defend peace and freedom.
Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, says authoritarian leaders have a “fetish for unity” and like public displays of loyalty to prevent division among leaders and social upheaval. She explained that division could lead people to believe that the risk of protests has decreased.
This was stated by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Cartel de los Soles designation provides Trump with additional options to fight Maduro. Hegseth did not provide details about those options, but administration officials have signaled they have difficulty seeing a situation in which Maduro is still in power as an acceptable ending.
David Smild, a Tulane University professor who has studied Venezuela for more than three decades, said only people who don't understand Chavismo would think a show of force would lead to a change in government.
“That’s exactly what they have in common,” Smild said of the deployment of U.S. forces. “They're also talking about a $50 million reward, but what military officer in their right mind would trust the US government? And more broadly, if the whole premise of the operation is that the Venezuelan military is a drug cartel, what motivation could they possibly have to oppose Maduro and engage in regime change?”
Maduro's entire presidency was celebrated political, social and economic crisis it pushed millions into poverty and forced more than 7.7 million people to migrate. The crisis has also led to a decline in support for the ruling party across the country.
Despite growing pressure from the US, Maduro remains loyal to his inner circle and has sought to maintain his dwindling base through long-established practices that include organizing marches in the capital.
Zenaida Quintero, a school porter, saw the country crumble under Maduro's watch and has vivid memories of severe food shortage that Venezuelans experienced in the late 2010s. However, her support for Maduro has not wavered, and her commitment boils down to one fact: he was chosen by Chavez to lead the Bolivarian Revolution.
Quintero, 60, said Maduro, like Chavez, will not abandon his supporters.
“I trust him,” Quintero said of Maduro. “We have to stay united. We have to protect ourselves.”
