We look at the changes President Trump is proposing to immigration policy following the attack on two National Guard members, as well as what comes next in the Russia-Ukraine deal proposed by the United States.
SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Wednesday's shooting of two members of the West Virginia National Guard could lead to major changes in immigration policy. Twenty-year-old Sarah Beckstrom has died. Twenty-four-year-old Andrew Wolf is in critical condition. The suspect in custody is an Afghan national who entered the United States as part of Operation Welcome Allies. In 2021, his asylum application was approved by the Trump administration. President Trump has called for a number of measures, such as a permanent pause on migration from, quote, “all third world countries” and revoking the citizenship of those who, quote, “undermine domestic peace.” NPR's Ron Elving joins us. Ron, thanks for being with us.
RON ELVING, BYLINE: Good to be with you, Scott.
SIMON: It's going to be a radical change. Can the President really do this?
ELVING: The President can say what he wants to say. He can make everyone respond to whatever he offers. He can lead the conversation and, to some extent, control the agenda. He can also, as we know, issue his decrees and force elements of the executive branch to do things. But the scale of these threats and the use of terms such as permanent pause or third world countries or disturbance of domestic peace – let's just say there is a lot of work to be done in law enforcement. And that's assuming such efforts survive in federal courts.
Trump actually tried to do something similar with the so-called Muslim ban early in his first term. This caused much confusion, unrest, and judicial resistance until finally the Third Amendment was approved by the Supreme Court by a vote of 5 to 4.
SIMON: How popular is President Trump's immigration policies among Americans right now?
ELVING: They were popular. Immigration has been his biggest issue with voters this year, but his approval numbers on immigration have fallen recently, as have his poll numbers overall. The southern border receives less attention in the media, and ICE raids and deportations receive a lot of negative attention.
Now this tragic story with the National Guard may turn things around again, just like in 2015. You may remember that exactly 10 years ago this time of year, Trump, then the Republican candidate, proposed banning all Muslims from entering the United States. It is also a response to shocking gun crime that has been attributed to immigrants. And, lo and behold, that Twitter post returned Trump to the lead in the major polls of Republicans vying for the White House this cycle. Perhaps Trump has not yet forgotten how it all turned out for him then.
SIMON: Another big question of the week: what's the status of the 28-point plan the U.S. presented to Ukraine with a Thanksgiving deadline?
ELVING: The plan was close to the set of proposals of a Russian diplomat named Dmitriev. This plan gave Russia the part of eastern Ukraine occupied by the Russian army, as well as other parts it did not occupy. This is a big deal. In many ways, this is precisely why the war happened. So Ukraine is fending off this blow for now, and the question is whether the Russians can live with anything less.
Putin made clear Friday that he expects to gain more territory from the deal and ridiculed suggestions that Trump negotiator Steve Witkoff was training the Russians or helping them deal with Trump. And it certainly doesn't help this process that Andriy Yermak, the lead negotiator and one of the most powerful men in Ukraine, resigned yesterday after a major corruption scandal.
SIMON: Ron, what are you keeping an eye on in Congress before the holidays?
ELVING: The most important thing right now is health care: what to do about the expiring health insurance subsidies under Obamacare, which will cause a huge increase in what people have to pay and will cost some people their insurance. This was an issue at the shutdown this fall and has not been resolved. Trump said last week that those subsidies may have to be extended for a while, perhaps long enough to get through the 2026 midterm elections. It would be politically expedient. But many House Republicans are stubborn: They don't want to be seen as Obamacare's rescuers, even if temporarily. And without a resolution on this issue, we could very well return to a government shutdown early next year.
SIMON: Ron Elving, thank you very much.
ELVING: Thank you, Scott.
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