News Analysis: How the Saudi crown prince went from pariah to feted White House guest

BEIRUT — Seven years ago, he was practically persona non grata, any association with him considered kryptonite among the US political and business elite for his alleged role in the murder of a Washington Post columnist and Saudi critic.

But when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman came to Washington this week, he cemented a remarkable comeback, positioning himself as the linchpin of a new regional order in the Middle East and his country as an important partner in America's artificial intelligence-driven future.

During the state visit, the Crown Prince – the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia – was treated to a literal red carpet: a Marine band, horsemen carrying flags and a squadron of F-35s in the sky; a gala dinner in honor of the prince, attended by many business leaders; The next day will be the US-Saudi Investment Forum at the Kennedy Center.

Throughout, Bin Salman (or MBS, as many call him) has proven himself to be a passionate practitioner of the kind of transactional politics favored by President Trump.

He complied with Trump's request, first made back in May during a US-Saudi forum in Riyadh, to increase the kingdom's investment commitments in the US from $600 million to almost $1 trillion.

And the prince managed to reassure Trump in his oft-repeated call for Saudi Arabia to join Abraham Accords The normalization pacts with Israel brokered during the president's first term don't even change anything of his long-stated position: that ties with Israel must be accompanied by steps toward Palestinian statehood, an outcome that many in Israel's political class reject.

“We believe that good relations with all countries in the Middle East are good, and we want to be part of the Abraham Accords. But we also want to make sure that we provide a clear path.” [to a] A two-state solution,” Bin Salman said.

“We want peace with the Israelis. We want peace with the Palestinians, we want them to coexist peacefully,” he added.

At home, in Saudi Arabia, this trip was presented as an undoubted triumph for the prince. Saudi state media boasted of the country's emergence as a major non-NATO US ally and the signing of the so-called Strategic Defense Agreement as a demonstration of Riyadh's central role in American strategic thinking.

This promotion occurred despite a lack of clarity about what the agreement actually entailed: its text was not published, and it was mentioned only in passing in a White House “fact sheet” that emphasized that Saudi Arabia would “buy American” through significant purchases of tanks, missiles and F-35s; In the latter case, the most modern US aircraft will be sold to an Arab country.

Saudi Arabia will also be given access to the latest artificial intelligence chips, allowing it to use abundant land and energy resources to build data centers while “protecting American technology from foreign influence,” according to the White House.

Negotiations over Riyadh's civilian nuclear program, stalled for a decade due to concerns from previous administrations, have created a framework that theoretically allows Saudi Arabia to build a nuclear power plant. Uranium enrichment, which would theoretically allow it to be used as a weapon, is not part of the agreement, U.S. officials say.

On the regional policy front, Bin Salman received a promise from Trump to help end the war in Sudan.

The visit capped a stunning trajectory in rescuing bin Salman from his reputation nadir seven years ago.

At the time, his image as a fearless reformer who had overturned bans on women driving and castrated the country's notorious religious police was already crumbling as he sought to silence not only foreign opponents but anyone at home who questioned Vision 2030, his far-reaching (and hugely expensive) plan to transform Saudi Arabia.

Then came 2018 strangulation and dismemberment in Turkey by Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi insider turned soft-spoken critic and Washington Post columnist.

Trump seemed more inclined to side with the prince, who denied any involvement in the killing, but in a leaked report the CIA said it had high confidence in the prince. ordered the murder of Khashoggi.

The association with Bin Salman, once Washington's darling in the Middle East, has become toxic. International companies rushed to leave the kingdom. Politicians have made it clear that he is not welcome here. Then-candidate Joe Biden vowed to make the Saudi government a “pariah.”

Over time, the prince retreated from his more aggressive policies, while geopolitics, energy concerns and a turbulent Middle East forced Biden to soften his withdrawal stance.

In 2022, Biden visited the prince – give him a cool fist bump — persuade him to lower energy prices.

That same year, Riyadh helped organize a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine. Later, thanks to an agreement brokered by China, the prince calmed his country's turbulent diplomatic relations with Iran. Just last month he was reportedly working behind the scenes to push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

His visit to the White House seemed to cement his return, but little of what was promised has yet to be delivered.

First, whether Saudi Arabia can commit $1 trillion—a figure representing 80% of its annual GDP and more than twice its foreign exchange reserves—remains an open question.

It is noteworthy that the prince did not specify when the money would be invested.

While investment commitments are large, “how much and over what period of time is completely unclear,” said Tim Cullen, an economist and former head of the International Monetary Fund mission in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is also cutting its government spending as deflated oil prices force it to scale back many of its giant projects, Cullen added.

“The money available for all these projects and investments is down compared to 2022 and 2023,” he said.

“I believe that things will develop both in the investment and trade areas. [between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia] But in the short term, he added, $1 trillion is too much for the Saudi economy.”

As for the F-35s, it will likely take years to see them on Saudi runways. Congress must approve the F-35 sale, and there could be some opposition if they are seen to jeopardize Israel's qualitative military advantage.

Israel, the only country in the F-35 program allowed to use certain specialized technologies, expects Saudi Arabia to receive “reduced caliber aircraft,” Trump said Tuesday, with the prince on his side.

“I don’t think you’re too happy about this,” he told the prince.

“For me,” Trump added, “I think [Israel and Saudi Arabia] both are at the level they should be at the top.”

But a bigger obstacle could be Saudi Arabia's ties to China, said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory and an aviation analyst.

In recent years, Saudi Arabia has conducted military exercises with the Chinese navy and deployed Chinese-made weapons in its military. Ensuring he remains familiar with the aircraft's capabilities presents “a different set of challenges,” Aboulafia said. Such concerns have hampered the United Arab Emirates' attempts to acquire the plane, he added.

Another problem is that a backlog in aircraft deliveries means another recipient will have to give up its production capacity to Saudi Arabia.

Key to bin Salman's return to the US embrace was also his treatment by Trump in the White House.

When a reporter asked the prince about Khashoggi's murder, it was Trump who loudly defended himself and called Khashoggi. “highly controversial.”

“A lot of people didn't like the gentleman you're talking about. Whether you like him or not, things happen, but he didn't know anything about it,” Trump said, pointing to the crown prince.

Trump also responded to Biden's fist bump by playing awkward games with bin Salman.

“I grabbed that hand,” Trump said. “I don’t care where that hand was.”