Emergency response needed to prevent climate breakdown, warn experts

Hunger, economic collapseCivil unrest and war are among the risks we face unless we take decisive action to limit further global warming and conserve nature, leading climate, food, health and security experts warned in London today.

National Emergency BriefingThe event, organized by climate activists and researchers, was held to convince political leaders of the need for urgent and decisive action to address the interconnected climate and biodiversity crises.

“I'm scared for my life and my future. And I'm very scared for my son's future. And you should be scared too,” he said. Hugh Montgomery from University College London, a doctor who studied the health impacts of climate change.

“We demand World War II-era leadership—leadership as if the survival of our society depends on it, because it does,” he said. Mike Berners-Lee at Lancaster University in the UK, who chaired the event.

Evidence is emerging that the planet is warming faster than before, he said. Kevin Anderson at the University of Manchester in the UK. “There is now a small but very real risk that we could reach 4°C by the end of this century.”

“The prospect of 3 or 4°C of warming is absolutely dire. We can't take that risk at all. This is an extreme and unstable climate far beyond any safe zone that nurtured our civilization,” Anderson said. “We will see unprecedented social and environmental collapse at these kinds of levels. We will see escalating geopolitical instability and rising military tensions. And there will be no real economy to speak of. We will see systemic collapse.”

Anderson also warned of the dangers of what he called “delay technologies” that are “designed to support a thriving oil and gas industry.” These include hydrogen and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, he said.

Hayley Fowler Newcastle University in the UK said the effects of warming have already exceeded forecasts. “Heat waves in Europe are increasing faster than anywhere else in the world – and much faster than climate models predict,” she said.

The UK could be hit by a storm that could dump up to 35cm of water, causing widespread flooding, as happened in Germany in 2021. “But like people in Germany, we can’t imagine it until it happens,” Fowler said.

Countries can't prepare for this extreme weather conditionsshe said. “We are still building infrastructure that is not resilient to today’s climate, let alone tomorrow’s.”

Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, UK, warned of the risk of such tipping points as cessation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulationor AIOC.

If the AMOC collapses, Arctic sea ice will spread as far south as the North Sea during the winter, Lenton said. London will be frosty for three months of the year, with temperatures dropping to -20°C (-4°F), but the summer will be even hotter than today.

According to Lenton, the UK will run out of water and grow food will no longer be possible. Worldwide, the area where wheat and corn can be grown will be more than halved. “So this is a global food security crisis.”

Food production is already sufferingsaid Paul Behrens at Oxford University. “Britain has seen three of its five worst grain harvests on record this decade.”

Things could get so bad it could lead to civil unrest, Behrens said. “We face a choice. We can continue business as usual, watch our food systems collapse, and then prepare for political and civil unrest. Or we can act now.”

Richard Nugee, a former British Army lieutenant general and national climate and security adviser, warned of the risks to national security. “What worries me most is not any single crisis. It's cascading crises. Multiple crises, food, health, infrastructure, migration, energy, extreme weather, etc., all happening at once, undermine trust in government because of slow or failed responses, and reactionary policies that claim to be able to solve all these crises at once.”

“We have to realistically plan for a future that others don't see or would rather not imagine. A future that will have incalculable consequences if it happens. And just because you don't like the risk doesn't mean it will go away or be ignored,” Nugi said.