TORONTO – For Toronto Blue Jayspending Dylan Keys The deal is both extremely proprietary and a significant departure from the recent past.
It's signature style because the Blue Jays are hungry for reliable starting pitchers and have consistently signed top free agent pitchers to multi-year deals, from Hyun Jin Ryu and Yusei Kikuchi to Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt. And bye chance deal backfiredThe Blue Jays have generally shopped well here, finding vital weapons at fair prices.
Another reason the seven-year, $210 million deal is signature: It was predictable. At general manager meetings in Las Vegas, sources close to the team said: top priority was adding a starting pitchergiven the impending departure of Bassitt and Max Scherzer. A couple of weeks later, Keys is set to sign the largest commitment a Blue Jays pitcher has ever received.
He breaks Gausman's five-year, $110 million contract for a cool $100 million, giving the Blue Jays the two pitchers with the most strikeouts this decade (1,150 for Cease and 1,099 for Gausman since 2020). Of course, the Blue Jays are paying Sez for what's next, not for what he's already done.
Despite the 4.55 ERA he posted in 2025, there are plenty of reasons to believe that better results will come next year. With a lifetime ERA of 3.88 and at least 3.4 fWAR in each of the last five seasons, there's a strong track record of success here. He is now 29 years old and has an average fastball of 97.1 mph. He is in the prime of his life.
Additionally, Cease's worst seasons were overshadowed by poor defensive performance. Last season, the Padres allowed a .323 batting average per game, well above the MLB average of .291. But while San Diego's defense hasn't done him any favors, the Blue Jays have a strong defensive team that should better support the Cease in 2026.
He's not a perfect pitcher—lefties will hold up against Cease, and his barrel velocity is uncomfortably high—but he's still someone you'd happily give the ball to in a playoff game, and that ERA will likely disappear in 2026.
It's all a Blue Jays trademark now, as is doing business with agent Scott Boras, who also represented Ryu and Kikuchi. What's different about this deal is its timing and what it says about Toronto as a free agent destination.
In terms of timing, the agreement with Boras on November 26 is indicative. The most famous agent in baseball doesn't advise clients to sign a contract so early unless they get exactly what they want or more. The Blue Jays are paying full price here, but after a memorable World Series run, they're not settling for bargains. Clearly they are comfortable paying retail for a premium gun like the Cease.
In recent years, the Blue Jays have often chosen to remain patient, sticking to their valuations, even if it meant waiting until January to complete their acquisitions. Remarkably, the early blow packs a punch, although that doesn't mean the new, reckless version of Ross Atkins is becoming a grandmaster in his own right.
As entertaining as this plot twist may be, data from a decade of decision-making suggests otherwise. History suggests that the Blue Jays will continue methodically and that at least some of the team's shopping will still be completed in the new year. But the Blue Jays apparently liked Cease so much that $210 million seemed like a good deal and they jumped.
Far from being used, the Blue Jays had arguably the most productive offseason of any MLB team, adding Shane Bieber and Cease to bolster a rotation already including Gausman, Trey Yesavage and Jose Berrios. Now that Bieber and Keys have chosen Toronto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has secured himself long-term, the Blue Jays are clear contenders for 2026 and the pressure is on for the rest of the AL East to catch up.
From now on, recruiting players should be as easy as it has been for decades. Because while the Blue Jays were coming off an 88-loss season a year ago and feeling awkward in free agency, that's no longer the case. Now the essence of recruiting is obvious. The Blue Jays were in the World Series earlier this month, and since then they have retained one experienced team and added another.
Even before these trades, Bo Bichette wanted to return, so it is clear that this is still happening and that he will continue to remain in contact with the Blue Jays. Beyond Bichette, the Blue Jays are also well positioned to get the pitching they need. That likely includes one late-inning arm (they were keeping an eye on Raisel Iglesias without making an offer, and were on Phil Maton before he landed with the Cubs) and, ideally, a leadoff arm who could start if needed.
In recent years, as Atkins began reaching out to free agents only to see them sign other players, some in the industry believed the Blue Jays were being used to drive up prices. People familiar with the negotiations said no, the Blue Jays also backed out of deals, turning down some big-name players who wanted to move to Toronto.
But after harsh criticism from Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Rocky Sasaki, the second-place narrative persisted—in fact, it grew louder. In the end, the only way to turn this story around was to make deals with star players, and ideally, win. Suddenly the Blue Jays are doing a lot of both.
