CARACAS, Venezuela — At first glance, the United States appears closer than ever to launching a military campaign to remove President Nicolas Maduro from power in Venezuela.
President Trump says he has authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside the Caribbean country and has massed troops, fighter jets and warships off its coast.
US military personnel in the region were prohibited from taking Thanksgiving leave. Airlines have canceled flights to Venezuela after the Federal Aviation Administration warned of a “potentially hazardous situation” there. And on Monday, the White House officially recognized Maduro as a member of an international terrorist group.
There is a palpable sense of unease in Caracas, the country's capital, especially as each new bellicose statement comes out of Washington.
“People are very stressed,” said Rosa Maria Lopez, 47, an orthopedist and mother of two. “Although no one says anything because they are afraid.”
Traffic is snarled at Simon Bolivar Maiquetia International Airport in Maiquetia, Venezuela, on Sunday after several international airlines canceled flights due to a Federal Aviation Administration warning of a dangerous situation in Venezuelan airspace.
(Ariana Cubillos/The Associated Press)
The Pentagon has presented Trump with a range of military options, a source familiar with the matter told The Times, and he is reportedly weighing his options. However, his plans for Venezuela remain unclear.
Trump, even warning of a possible military action, also constantly suggested the possibility of negotiations, saying that he “I’ll probably talk” at some point to Maduro.
“I'm not ruling anything out,” Trump said last week.
Now people in both the US and Venezuela are asking: Is the US military build-up in the Caribbean a prelude to an invasion or a bluff designed to pressure Maduro into a deal?
There are members of the White House, especially the Secretary of State. Marco Rubio — who are desperate to overthrow Maduro, a leftist autocrat whom the United States does not recognize as Venezuela's legitimately elected president.
But other members of Trump's team appear more interested in securing access to Venezuela's oil wealth and keeping it away from China and Russia than in pursuing regime change. Parties in this camp may want to accept an agreement with Venezuela that does not require Maduro's departure and a transition plan to democracy.
Months of U.S. saber-rattling without any direct military action against Maduro's government could weaken the Americans' bargaining position, said Jeff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council, a think tank in Washington. “There is a psychological component to this operation and it is starting to lose its credibility,” he said. “I'm afraid the regime thinks it has withstood the worst of the US pressure.”
Maduro, for his part, insists he is open to dialogue. “Anyone in the United States who wants to talk to Venezuela can do so,” he said this week. “We cannot allow the bombing and massacre of the Christian people – the people of Venezuela.”
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, speaking at the presidential palace in Caracas on Friday, said he was open to dialogue with the United States.
(Christian Hernandez/Associated Press)
For years, he refused attempts to force him from office, even in the face of U.S. sanctions, domestic protests against his rule and various offensive moves during the first Trump administration that Caracas considered coup attempts. Experts say there is no evidence that Trump's troop surge – or his attacks on suspected drug traffickers off the coast of Venezuela – has weakened support for Maduro among the military or other hardcore supporters.
Meanwhile, Venezuela has tried to use the prospect of a US invasion to shore up domestic support.
On Monday, top officials here took aim at the State Department's words. designation suspected Venezuelan drug cartel as a foreign terrorist group. Rubio claims that the Cartel de los Soles is “led by Nicolás Maduro and other senior officials of the illegitimate Maduro regime who have corrupted Venezuela's military, intelligence, legislative and judicial systems.”
Defense Minister Pete Hegseth praised the declaration for introducing “a range of new capabilities” to combat what he called “narco-terrorists” and “illegitimate regimes.”
The Venezuelan government says the Cartel de los Soles does not exist. Foreign Minister Ivan Gil called Monday's appointment a “ridiculous fabrication.” The United States, he said, is using “vile lies to justify illegitimate and illegal intervention against Venezuela as part of the classic American regime change format.”
The truth is somewhere in the middle.
The Cartel de los Soles, according to experts, is less a traditional cartel (with a centralized command structure running various cells) and more a shorthand term used in the media and elsewhere to describe a loose group of corrupt Venezuelan military officials involved in the drug trade.
The name “Cartel of the Suns” comes from the sun symbols found on the uniforms of Venezuelan soldiers, similar to the stars on US military uniforms. It has been around since the early 1990s, when Venezuela was an important transit point for Colombian cocaine bound for the US market. Today, only a small portion of the cocaine transported to the United States passes through Venezuela.
Venezuelan journalist Ronna Risques Sanchez said it is unclear whether Maduro actually directs the illegal activities carried out by his armed forces or simply allows them to happen within his government. Either way, she said, it's “happening right under his nose.”
However, she did not rule out that the use of Maduro’s possible connections with the drug trade could become a convenient “pretext” for US political machinations.
Feelings of uncertainty and pain have increased among the people of Venezuela in recent weeks as they ponder persistently conflicting reports about a possible US strike.
More than a decade of political, social and economic upheaval has left people exhausted and numb, often unable to believe anything they hear about the future of Maduro's government. There is a widespread feeling of resignation and a feeling that the situation can only get worse.
“Every week we hear that they are going to get rid of Maduro, but he is still here,” said Ines Rojas, 25, a street vendor in Caracas. “We all want change, but change that will improve the situation, not make it worse. We young people have no future. The immigration doors are closed, we are locked here, not knowing what will happen.”
For the most part, people seem to want to put an end to the overwhelming feeling of not knowing what will happen next.
“I pray every day that this uncertainty will end,” said Cristina Lopez Castillo, 37, an unemployed office worker who is campaigning for Maduro to be removed from office. “We have no future or present. We live every day wondering what will happen tomorrow. I'm more afraid of hunger than Trump.”
Still, Maduro still has many supporters – and not just among the military and political elite, whose loyalty has been rewarded with additional wealth. Many people remain grateful for the social legacy of Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez and wary of US motives in Venezuela.
“We Venezuelans don't want to be anyone's colony, and we don't want anyone to drop bombs on us to get rid of the president,” said Jose Gregorio Martinez Pina, 45, a construction worker in the capital.
“Is Maduro a drug trafficker? I haven't seen any evidence,” he said. “And if they have them, they should present it, instead of the country living in terror for weeks.”
Times staff writers Linthicum and McDonnell reported in Mexico City. This was reported by special correspondent Mogollon in Caracas. Michael Wilner of the Times' Washington bureau also contributed reporting.
