WITH Winnipeg Jets Having played 21 games this year, it's time to take stock of the quarters. Frankly, if this exam had been administered after Game 19—a 5-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets—the tone would likely have been much different. However, as it stands, the last few days in Jetsland have been difficult enough to change the atmosphere within the team and suggest that there is some cause for concern.
On Friday the team announced Connor Hellebuyck — also known as the league's reigning MVP — will miss four to six weeks following arthroscopic knee surgery. Since then, Eric Comrie has started two home games and lost both. In fairness to Comrie, the Jets failed to score in the second of those contests, losing 3-0 to the Minnesota Wild, who are now ahead of Winnipeg in the Central Division standings.
The pair of losses underscores the fact that the first quarter of Winnipeg's season is really a tale of two halves. Through 12 games, the Jets posted a 9-3-0 record. However, since then the club has struggled with a 3-6-0 record, making November a much less fun month than October.
Add in Hellebuyck's injury and a Central Division that lives up to its preseason billing as the NHL's “Group of Death” and you can see why Manitoba could struggle at the low-to-mid level.
It's somewhat puzzling that the Jets did a better job coming out of the gate while three key players — captain Adam Lowry, second baseman Cole Perfetti and second-pairing defenseman Dylan Samberg — were missing from the lineup. While the team's fortunes have actually taken a turn for the worse since these three guys debuted in November, you have to think Winnipeg is in a better position to deal with Hellebuyck's absence with this trio of players in the lineup.
However, with their star goaltender on the shelf, Winnipeg will have a tough time between now and January when it comes time to file their midseason report.
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Most Encouraging Event: Stars Succeed
Mark Scheifele1.33 points per game is more than all but six NHL players; Kyle Connor is tied for 16th in that category with 1.19, and the only defenseman with more points than Josh Morrissey's 22 is Cale Makar with 29. Even Hellebuyck, before surgery, ranks sixth in the league in saves better than expected per 60 minutes. Say what you will about Winnipeg, its big boys lead the way.
It should also be noted that the Jets entered camp with two huge UFAs in waiting in Connor and Lowry. Connor returned for eight years on the eve of the regular season, and Lowry returned from hip surgery and soon after put pen to paper with a five-year contract extension.
The most important things about development: Problems under the hood?
The Jets' underlying numbers aren't flattering. The team, which should have a solid structure, ranks 27th in Moneypuck's expected goals by percentage. Winnipeg finished seventh in this category last season.
The Jets have the second-easiest schedule so far, according to Power Rankings Guru. The power play, while still an impressive 23.9 percent (ninth in the league), is not as lethal a weapon as it was last year when the Jets ranked first in the NHL at 28.9 percent.
Now all this comes against the backdrop of Hellebuyck being unavailable for up to six weeks.
This is really a conversation about the top line compared to everyone else in the forward group. Mark Scheifele (11), Kyle Connor (11) and Gabe Vilardi (eight) have combined for 30 goals for Winnipeg this year; the rest of the forwards combined have 26.
The top trio would likely have earned an A-plus on their own, but the second line—for various reasons—has been in some flux all year. After two years away from the NHL, Jonathan Toews has eight points and a minus-11 in 21 games. Cole Perfetti suffered a lower-body injury in the final preseason game. He returned on November 9 and scored one goal in seven games. Vlad Namestnikov scored six goals in 12 matches, but missed the net in nine.
The next quarter of the season should really be the start of Winnipeg's second wave of scoring.
Adam Lowry's return on November 4 was a boon for the bottom/middle six forwards. Jets coach Scott Arniel now has options: push Lowry into the 2C position with Toews underneath him, or vice versa.
The situation for the winger pair is pretty bleak at the moment, with Gustav Nyqvist, who was signed in the summer as a secondary striker, still without a goal in 16 appearances. Meanwhile, Brad Lambert, the 30th overall pick in the 2022 draft, was told by the club that his office could explore trade options with other teams.
Good news? Morgan Barron has emerged as a big, consistent force in the middle of the fourth line.
Josh Morrissey is certainly the headliner here as his performances could make him a Norris finalist when all is said and done. Dylan Samberg's recovery from a broken wrist on Nov. 13 should help determine the top four, although Samberg's playing partner Neal Pionk suddenly found himself on the roster as a full-time starter.
Winnipeg really relies on the Morrissey-Dylan DeMelo and Samberg-Pionk duos to deliver the mail, so the club needs good health and for everyone to find their rhythm now that Samberg is back.
Logan Stanley, who appeared frequently last year, dressed for every game, is averaging a career-high 17:07 per night and – after starting the season with five goals in 201 career games – already has three on the year.
When Hellebuyck completed his final start, the Jets still ranked fifth in the NHL with a team save percentage of 0.905. He may not have posted a Hart Trophy-type season, but the big man was still pulling his weight. Behind him, Eric Comrie had a solid .908 save percentage in five games.
Now the dynamics are completely different: Comrie is expected to start.
Comrie will be joined on the current roster by 22-year-old Tomas Milic, who expects to play his first NHL game any minute. A fifth-round pick in the 2023 draft, Milic had a strong showing in the AHL playoffs last spring with the Manitoba Moose and is off to a strong start this year, hitting .921 in nine AHL games. However, we are talking about a goalie who played 18 games in the ECHL last year.
One way or another, the Jets will have to live without their defensive coverage for a while.
MVP: Mark Scheifele
Most Improved Player: Morgan Barron
Best Defender: Josh Morrissey
