Three Category 5 storms, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded, no landfalls in the U.S. and a puzzling lull in the usual peak of activity: Together, these and other factors have made this year's hurricane season a “weird one.”
At least that's what atmospheric scientist Phil Klotzbach put it.
“It’s just been a weird year,” said Klotzbach, who studies hurricanes at Colorado State University. “Difficult year for characterization.”
Hurricane season officially ends on November 30th. In some ways, 2025 matches what researchers expect to see more often as the climate warms: Hurricanes continued to form late in the season, and several intensified at incredible speed, causing some of the most powerful storms in history..
But other than that it was just weird. Fewer hurricanes formed than experts predicted, but almost all of them became severe storms. And the continental US avoided landfall for the first time in a decade. The surprises were a reminder of the unpredictability of hurricane season—especially in a warming world—even as forecasting becomes more accurate.
Fewer hurricanes, higher intensity
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters in May predicted an above-average season with six to ten hurricanes. Of those, at least three were expected to be severe storms, meaning Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of 181 mph or higher.
Klotzbach, independently of other hurricane tracking groups, came to the same prediction. were at the same stadium.
Fewer hurricanes eventually formed, but of the five—Erin, Gabriel, Humberto, Imelda and Melissa—four were considered major.
“This is the highest in the last 50 years,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Geosciences.
Moreover, three of these major storms were Category 5 storms, the highest level of intensity.
Forecasters' forecasts for an above-average season were still accurate despite fewer storms, thanks to a metric called accumulated cyclone energy—essentially a calculation of the total intensity and duration of all tropical storms for the season.
Klotzbach predicted that the energy stored would be 125% of the 30-year average. The season ended at 108%, which, given the small number of hurricanes, means every one of them was on top.
“It was a season of quality, not quantity,” he said.
Nine of the last 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal, Klotzbach said, a trend he attributes to warm ocean temperatures and La Niña, a seasonal circulation that tends to weaken the high-altitude winds that prevent hurricanes from forming.
McNoldy, who closely monitors Atlantic water temperatures, said 2025 was an “abnormally warm year.”
“Whatever storms there were, they definitely had a lot of fuel,” McNoldy said. Ocean heat causes evaporation, causing warm, moist air to rise from the surface, creating convection; Hurricanes require ocean temperatures of at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit to form.
