I think Oregon is safe in College football Playoff field after 42–27 win USC on Saturday. A lot went wrong for the Ducks this weekend.
Before the weekend, I was no longer so confident in myself. If Oregon had lost to USC and ended the year with a win over Washingtonthe season would be 10-2, but without a very impressive win. The selection committee has gone on record saying that it treats Oregon's win over Penn State with far more respect than Penn State's current state of affairs warrants, and that's good for the Ducks, but I'm not sure it will be enough.
If Oregon were 10-2 and thrown in with every other 10-2 team, maybe even 9-3 TexasI don't know how this resume would compare.
But Oregon took care of it Saturday. With a win over USC, Oregon can add a top-20 finish to its resume. Additionally, Penn State beat Nebraska 37-10 and now holds a win over Rutgers, missing 6-6 and bowl eligibility. On the resume, this looks much better than 5-7 Penn State, as silly as that may seem.
I know the general public is dismissive of Penn State, and for perfectly logical reasons, but the fact is that the power ratings still largely rank the Nittany Lions as one of the top 20 teams in the country, even though the wheels completely fell off and Penn State's win at Oregon was very different than what we see now.
In addition, Washington defeated UCLA Late Saturday night, the Huskies enter next week with an 8-3 record and could be ranked again on Tuesday night. So if the Ducks lose to Washington next week, they will be 10-2 with two ranked losses and a win over USC. Damn if only Iowa beats Nebraska on Black Friday, the Hawkeyes could find themselves back in the rankings, further aiding Oregon's resurgence.
If Oregon is on track to beat Washington, there is no doubt that the Ducks will be successful.
So, if you're an Oregon fan right now, I think you can rest easy knowing you're in the game. Of course, this doesn't mean you have nothing to play for. A win over Washington next week would likely set up a first-round home game at Autzen Stadium. Lose and you're probably on your way.
“Sit still, Saturday”
Often when college football fans spend the entire week complaining about the upcoming weekend's games, we see crazy results that turn the season on its head. Week 13 was not one of those times. Of last week's top 25 teams, 21 teams played this weekend, and no team in the top 14 lost. The top-ranked team that lost was No. 15 USC in Oregon.
In addition to the Trojans, we saw No. 16 Georgia TechNo. 21 IllinoisNo. 22 Missouriand No. 23 Houston fall. Of the four, only Georgia Tech had a realistic path to the playoffs by winning the ACC.
All this means is that the arguments we have this week will be the same as last week. I don't want to ruin your Tuesday night, but I bet Our Lady is still at least four places ahead Miami. Who knows? Maybe the committee will live dangerously and push the Hurricanes ahead Utah after the Utes narrowly avoided disaster in a 51-47 win over the Utes Kansas.
Bowl predictions: Notre Dame, Oregon moves to College Football Playoff committee, Miami stays on bubble
Brad Crawford
I think the only drama in the top 12 this week will be whether Oregon makes the jump. Ole Miss. Tune in Tuesday night to find out!
Vandy needs stunning wins
Vanderbilt beat up Kentucky45-17, and lest you think the game was that close, you should know that the Commodores led 45-3 after three quarters. I'm sure they're hoping the committee will take notice because they know they're going to have an uphill battle to get into the field.
If Vanderbilt finishes the season with a win Tennesseeit would be 10-2, but it would be a 10-2 team in a precarious position where it would have to rely on renewed turnovers. The Commodores defeated South Carolina, LSU and Missouri when those teams were ranked at the time, but none of the three will likely be ranked Tuesday night. Missouri was ranked this week but lost in Oklahoma 17-6 and looked as dire as the final score suggests.
Tennessee will stay in the rankings with a win. Florida31-11, but if the Vols lose to the Commodores they will drop to 8-4. I'm guessing they'll still be ranked after this because all four of their losses will likely come to teams in the top 15. However, even that is not a guarantee, as in this scenario the Vols would not have a single win against a team with a winning record (Kentucky State and Mississippi State could finish 6-6 at best).
So, compared to other 10-2 teams, I don't know if an 8-4 win over Tennessee would be enough to make Vandy worth everyone's attention. They'll have to beat Tennessee significantly to make an impression – like they did against Kentucky. You might think the Commodores are just trying to pump themselves up. Diego Pavia The stats (532 total yards, 6 total touchdowns vs. Kentucky) will help his Heisman case, but you'd be wrong. They too are trying to justify their CFP position.
I've been saying for a long time that I don't think James Madison has a path to the playoffs. When the committee set Tulane in the rankings last week – the same Tulane with two defeats, one of which was 22 points against the then 5-5. UTSA – in front of the dukes, this seemed to me a rather clear signal.
“We don’t want to hire James Madison unless we literally have no other choice.”
Well, James Madison didn't help himself on Saturday, and he didn't get much help elsewhere. The Dukes rallied after halftime 17-10 to beat Washington State 24-20, but missed the opportunity. The Cougars played it out against Ole Miss and Virginia away this season, losing to both by five points. If James Madison had crushed the Cougars, it might have swayed the committee a bit.
“Hey, we beat the hell out of this team that was probably holding on to the two teams that will be on the field this season.”
I don't think a 24-20 win will be enough to make a difference, even if it's the biggest margin of the three! What's worse for the Dukes, Louisville lost SMU 38-6, drop to 7-4. The Dukes also can't get any help from their Sun Belt brethren.
Last week Southern Misswho did not lose a single conference match and led the Western Division, showed a stunning result against State of Texaslosing at home 41-14. Southern Miss followed that up this week with a 42-35 road loss to South Alabama a team that is now 4-7. I didn't watch the game, but I can't help but wonder if Southern Miss realized that the outcome of the game meant nothing to them because they were playing Troy – the team with which they are currently tied in the standings – next week. Even if the Eagles beat South Alabama this week, they'll still have to beat Troy next week to advance to the conference championship.
While it meant nothing to the Eagles, it meant something to James Madison. Now, whether it's Southern Miss or Troy, the Dukes meet in the Sun Belt Championship and they're an 8-4 team. That doesn't mean a 10-2 win over Southern Miss would have been enough, but it would definitely help more than an 8-4 win over Southern Miss.
One thing I'm interested to see in this week's rankings, especially with three teams in the bottom five in losses last week, is whether James Madison will finally crack the top 25. I still think not. In fact, I'm willing to bet we'll see a second American team before we see the Dukes. Just so the committee can really get their point across.
Holidays at CFPeace
The following teams' College Football Playoff hopes faded this weekend. We honor their memory here and are not going to mention them in this column as playoff contenders until next season.
- Cincinnati (7–4 overall, 5–3 Big 12)): The Bearcats lost at home to BYU 26-14, eliminating them from contention for the Big 12 title. That was their only path into the field.
- East Carolina (7-4 overall, Americans 5-2): Last week I wrote about how East Carolina is an invisible playoff contender, and now their playoff hopes are invisible too. The Pirates were sunk 58-24. JSCand while we know the committee will forgive the Roadrunners huge losses, they will only do so when you can still win the conference.
- Georgia Tech (9-2 overall, 6-2 ACC): Georgia Tech is still mathematically alive in the ACC after a 42-28 home loss to Pitt, but I feel safe in saying the Yellow Jackets' playoff hopes are over.
- Houston (8-3 overall, 5-3 Big 12): Houston needed a laundry list of things to make its way to the Big 12 Championship Game, but it couldn't control the only thing it could control: not losing. The Cougars lost 17–14 at home to TCU, ending their conference title hopes.
- USC (8-3 overall, 6-2 B1G): USC's loss to Oregon no longer puts them on the path to the Big Ten title for an automatic berth, and gives the Trojans a third loss that will prove impossible to overcome in the pursuit of at-large.
Week 14. Vibration switches
A look ahead at the five games on next week's slate that will most likely impact the playoff race
- Ohio State (-11.5) vs. Michigan
- Miami at Pitt
- Texas A&M at Texas
- Alabama at Auburn
- Virginia Tech in Virginia
CFP forecast for this week
This is not a prediction of what we will see on Tuesday night, but rather a projection of what the final field will look like.
1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas A&M
5. Texas Tech
6. Oregon
7. Alabama
8. Ole Miss
9. Notre Dame
10. Showhole Headlines
11. SMU
12. Tulane
