The healthcare sector has become a positive moment in the economy this year, which is almost half the growth of employment in the country. Nevertheless, economists and experts warn that immigrant policy and Medicaid clippings can jeopardize this growth in the future.
From January to August employers They added 487,000 jobsAccording to the latest data on negligent wages of labor statistics management. Sector Health amounted to 48% this modest growthWith an increase of about 232,000 jobs, although this sector is only 11% of the workforce.
“From the point of view of labor, health care is promoting the economy,” said Neil Mahoni, a professor of economics at Stanford University.
According to economists, President Donald Trump President Donald against immigration and reducing state insurance programs threaten to stop this growth. This can cause economic uncertainty and represent an obstacle to the Republicans in the legislative elections next year. The healthcare sector is unusually dependent on employees born abroad, while the new law that reduces federal expenses in the Medicaid program, which is managed by about $ 900,000 million a year, can cause Loss of 1.2 million jobs At the national level, according to preliminary estimates of the organization of the Commonwealth Fund.
In recent years, the growth of healthcare has been more noticeable in the home care sector, with an increase in almost 300,000 jobs, reaching 1.82 million Workers from August 2019 to August 2025. This is because millions of elderly people hire workers to visit and care for them in their homes, Mahoni explained. There was also a strong increase in employment in hospitals u Medical roomsA field opposite, residence of centers of elderly people and residential premises They registered weaker numbers In the period from 2019 to 2025, partly from the growth of people who prefer to get attention to at home.
Some studies show that health care growth does not always benefit the economy. For example, Increase in administrative personnel In this sector, it can increase costs without providing specific advantages for patients. Despite this, jobs in the field of healthcare are considered Stable and, often, resistant to recessionThe field today is the health industry The main source of employment In most states. Even with an increase in employment in this sector, many areas are faced with Lack of workers To satisfy growing demand.
But several economists warned that recent changes in the federal immigration policy and Medicaid can slow down this growth.
If measures against immigrants promoted by the Trump administration are ongoing, healthcare organizations may arise difficulties with the search for a sufficient number of personnel. “The healthcare sector largely depends on the labor of immigrants,” said Ellison Srivastava, an economist in the laboratory engaged in hired. “He has an important part of employees who were not born in the country, so it will be more injured.”
Approximately 18% of Americans used in the healthcare sector were born in another country, according to the 2023 census department. About 5% of employees are not citizens, including about 60,000 doctors and surgeons, 117,000 registered nurses and 155,000 health care assistants or personal personal persons, as shown in this census.
Many of these workers are legally located in the country. The census office does not indicate how many non -cytizers are authorized to remain in the United States. However, even those who have legal status, as permanent inhabitants, can be vulnerable to deportationThe federal government deported about 200,000 people from February to August, significant growth compared to previous months, according to Data obtained KeeperField
At the same time, some health workers could decide not to study in the United States and not move to the country if they perceive hostility towards immigrants. The number of visas -immigrants issued by the United States in the period from March and May decreased by about 23,000, or 14%compared to the same period of the previous year The State Department of DataThe field besides, reports that Cruces is not allowed by the border They decreased sharplyField
Srivastava said that the Labor actually offer data showing the constant demand of doctors by employers who want to support the process of sponsorship of visas. But it is unclear how many people will accept these proposals.
Meanwhile, Congress approved this summer what the Republicans called the “great and beautiful law” (One big beautiful act Beautiful Act), who was quickly signed by Trump. This legislation reduces federal expenses by about 910,000 million dollars. USA for the next 10 years, according to KFF analysis Based on data from the budget management of the Congress.
It is assumed that the reduction of Medicaid will leave millions without medical insurance in the coming years. Hospitals, residence of the elderly and public medical centers will have to absorb most of the cost Serving people without insurance, which can make them reduce services and staff or even close them.
Contractions can have a significant impact on the labor market. Only California can lose up to 217,000 jobs, of which two -thirds will be in the health sector, according to Analysis Working Center of the University of California in Berkeley, prepared before the final approval of the law.
“This does not necessarily mean that 200,000 people will lose their work,” he said Miranda DitzTemporary director of the Health Program of the Center for Labor. “Some people will lose their work, and in other cases, the growth of employment will be more slowly than expected.”
To this is added that Trump Recently fired an official This directed the statistical region of the Ministry of Labor, which caused concern about the possible policy of labor data.
It is not yet clear when – or yes – immigration measures and notching Medicaid will affect hiring health, but there are already signs of possible cooling. Federal data showed Significant reduction in the health proposals of the health sector And social assistance in July. Also, Really data They reflect the fall in some areas of healthcare, although Laura Ullrich, the director of economic research for North America, in fact, the hiring laboratory, said that in general, publications on employment remain above the levels of pandemic.
Graphic: Monthly healthcare work remains increased
At the moment, as expected, the growth of employment will remain high, especially among experts in nursing, nurses and assistants at home, according to Projection of labor statistics managementField
Many jobs in the field of healthcare require many years of higher education, but offer a good reward. For example, family doctors usually earn more than $ 240,000 year and registered nurses about 94,000 dollarsField
Joshua Form, President Section of the state Sacramento From the Association of Students of California, he said that he was “moderately optimistic” regarding the work of the nurse when he finished in December. At this time, he makes clinical rotations that give him a practical experience to face long working days.
It is far that hospitals in their area expand their capabilities, while some more experienced nurses leave a profession for exhaustion after Covid pandemia, which generates new vacancies. “I think that now the most important thing is to know about all the cycles of filing applications,” he said.
Work in the field of healthcare, which require less training, usually pay much less. The average annual income for approximately 4.4 million people who work as assistants in health care and a personal guardian were from some 35,000 dollars a year Past, salary, similar to a salary WaitersAccording to federal data.
According to Ulrich, health growth in health will especially benefit women. About 80% of people working in the health and social assistance sector are women, according to Recent studyThe field of the investigation showed that the employees have represented more than a million new jobs over the past two years.
The sector is stable, Srivastava said, because, in general, the Americans do not consider healthcare as luxury: they pay in good and bad times. It is expected that the cost of medical insurance will register its greater increase For at least five years. In addition, health expenses are usually concentrated on elderly people, a group that grow accelerates as members of the Baby -Bum generation age. The number of people aged 65 years and older in the United States left with 34 million In 1995 a 61 million In 2024.
“Many of these jobs in the field of healthcare exist to serve the population of the elderly who is growing rapidly,” Ulrich explained. “Therefore, it is not surprising that we see growth. But what is surprising is how disproportionate it is. ”
Philip Reese is a specialist according to the reporting of journalism at the University of California at Sacramento.
This story was created Kaiser Health Newswhich publishes California healthcareEditorial independent service California Health FundField
