Flu season could be nasty this winter : NPR

According to preliminary data, the United States may face another harsh winter due to the flu.

“Signs this could be a big season,” says Richard Webbywho studies influenza at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis. “This year’s flu season may take a bit of a hit.”

The first clue to what awaits us is what the flu did during the winter in the southern hemisphere. It often predicts what will happen in the northern hemisphere.

“Many parts of the southern hemisphere have seen some pretty decent flu activity,” Webby says. “It actually lasted longer—the end of the season lasted longer than usual.”

And now parts of the northern hemisphere, such as the UK, have been hit hard. This often foreshadows what's to come for the US.

Another clue is the current dominant flu strain in the northern hemisphere. This is the H3N2 influenza virus According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention flu tracker.

And H3N2 viruses “tend to be a little more problematic,” Webby says. “When we have an H3N2 season, we tend to have a little more activity, a little more disease on the severe end of the spectrum.”

The last major flu season dominated by the H3N2 virus was 2016–2017.

In addition, a new H3N2 variant has recently emerged and become the dominant strain in the United States.

“Essentially, there is a new flu variant circulating that has mutated a little,” says Caitlin Riversepidemiologist from Johns Hopkins University. “And that means it's different enough from what your body or the vaccine can recognize that it can kind of bypass that protection.”

And she says this year's flu shot “may not be as good as if we hadn't seen this new variant.”

However, data from the UK shows that vaccines still make a difference, Rivers says. In the UK, vaccines protect against hospitalization in children by around 70-75%, and in adults by 30-40%.

So Rivers and others are urging anyone who hasn't yet gotten a flu shot to get one.

“Be sure to get it as soon as possible. Because activity is low now. But she is growing. And it will continue to rise until we reach the peak, which usually occurs during the holiday season. There's no point in waiting as we get closer to flu season,” Rivers says.

It takes about two weeks for immunity to develop. And people don't want to get or spread the flu on Thanksgiving. Every winter in the United States, approximately 12,000 to 52,000 people die from influenza.

“I have concerns that uptake of the flu vaccine and the annual COVID vaccine this year will not be as high as in previous years,” Rivers said. She's concerned about the rhetoric of federal health officials who question whether the vaccines are “safe and effective.”

“We know this is true,” she says. “And they are important for protection against severe disease. So it’s really important that people go out and buy them this year.”

In a written statement to NPR, a Health and Human Services spokesperson said, “It is too early to tell what viruses will spread this season, in what proportion, and how well the vaccine will work in the United States.”

The statement added: “The decision to get vaccinated is a personal one. People should talk to their doctor about the risks and benefits of the vaccine.”