Ford, Trudeau governments more similar than you might think

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From 2018 to early 2025, the federal government under Justin Trudeau and the Ontario government under Doug Ford dominated public policy in Canada. Despite the different rhetoricBoth countries increased spending and taxes, ran persistent deficits and made little progress on debt, revealing surprising similarities in their fiscal approaches.

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Trudeau no longer prime ministerBye Ford remains premier of Canada's largest province. Now that the Trudeau/Ford era is behind us, it is clear that their approaches to governing had much more in common than their rhetoric suggested.

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Let's start with expenses. While campaigning for prime minister, Trudeau advocated more spending to help stimulate the economy, while Ford criticized his predecessor as a “reckless” spender and promised more discipline. However, while in office, both Ford and Trudeau increased spending (adjusted for inflation and population growth) from the level they inherited.

Ontario's promised tax cuts never materialized

When it comes to taxes, the two entries are again more similar than different. Candidate Trudeau pushed for higher taxes on top earners and then introduced carbon taxes when he became prime minister. During his election campaign, Ford promised to cut taxes and, as prime minister, said government was “the worst place you can put your money.” Ford also promised to cut business income and median income tax rates.

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Under Trudeau, federal taxes have increased (per person, after adjusting for inflation). Ford never delivered on his promised tax cuts, and under his leadership, provincial tax revenues (per capita, adjusted for inflation) increased. In short, per capita tax burdens have increased at both the provincial and federal levels during the Ford and Trudeau eras.

The situation is the same with regard to deficits and debt. Trudeau broke his predecessor's plan by deliberately creating a series of budget deficits. Meanwhile, Ford and his top aides were sharply critical of their predecessors' deficits and debt accumulation, and the Ford government's first budget report spoke of a “moral imperative” to balance the budget and reduce the province's debt burden.

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Taxpayers are saddled with growing debt

On the record. The Trudeau government ran huge deficits throughout its time in office, failing to achieve balance even once. The Ford government also ran deficits most years (with one exception in 2021-22, when an inflation-driven surge in revenue led to surpluses). Under Trudeau, the debt has skyrocketed. Prime Minister Ford's debt record not as bad as Trudeau – the size of Ontario's debt relative to the provincial economy has been slowly shrinking. But even this progress has been minimal, and judging by the Ford government's latest fiscal plan, this minimal progress is likely to be reversed in the years ahead. Simply put, eight years later, the Ford government has made little progress on the “moral imperative” of debt reduction.

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With Trudeau's resignation last spring, we can now close the book on the Ford/Trudeau era of Canadian fiscal policy, which lasted from 2018 to 2025. Despite different rhetorical approaches, both governments increased spending, raised tax burdens on residents, ran persistent budget deficits and made little progress in reducing debt.

In other words, the two governments had a lot more in common than you might think.

— Eisen is a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute focusing on provincial welfare research.

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