More than 40,000 delegates from nearly 200 countries begin work this week in the Brazilian city of Belém, on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, on a task that looks increasingly hopeless: slowing and mitigating the overheating of our planet.
But while their work at the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly known as COP30, certainly matters, this latest meeting comes amid a dramatic shift—along with an incredible glimmer of hope—in the politics of climate change.
Whether and how the world will embrace clean energy technologies—replacing carbon-intensive oil, gas and coal—now depends less on these annual meetings and more on the domestic political agendas of each individual country.
Why did we write this
As the COP30 climate conference gathers in Brazil, Beijing and Washington have taken opposing positions on climate change. Donald Trump calls it a “scam.” Xi Jinping has invested billions in green technology this year. Whose point of view will be more prophetic?
And no country matters more than two energy superpowers with divergent interests and increasingly divergent approaches to climate change: the United States and China.
US President Donald Trump recently called climate change “the biggest scam ever.” He cuts former President Joe Biden's green energy subsidies, doubles America's world-leading oil and gas production and ignores the Belem conference.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is making a very different economic bet.
And this is the source of an “incredible glimmer of hope” among some delegates in Brazil.
Although China remains the world's largest emitter of fossil fuel emissions that cause global warming, Xi's government is investing hundreds of billions of dollars in solar and wind power, batteries and electric vehicles.
This technology is not just for domestic use, although it is already having an impact on emissions in China.
It is also destined for export to generate trade revenues on which China's economy depends.
Importantly, this has begun to give the less developed countries of the so-called Global South something almost unimaginable a few years ago: a realistic path to economic growth that does not have to rely primarily on carbon-emitting fuels.
Pakistan has started importing large quantities of solar panels. Nearly three-quarters of car buyers in Nepal now opt for Chinese electric vehicles. Ethiopia has banned the import of gasoline-powered cars altogether.
Brazil has taken steps to persuade China's giant electronic vehicle makers to set up production there.
The enormous pace and scale of the increase in solar and wind energy production, with China's near-monopoly dominance and plummeting costs, has prompted other major emerging economies such as India, Nigeria and even the oil-rich emirate of Abu Dhabi to embark on solar energy initiatives.
And it made a measurable difference.
One example: Industrial use of fossil fuels around the world has begun to decline, mainly because most of China's small industrial plants are switching to increasingly cleaner energy sources.
Although China continues to use coal, which is the most carbon-intensive fuel, overall emissions will also fall this year.
But hardly. About 1% – in a country that accounts for a third of global coal consumption, almost three times more than the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States.
That helps explain the biggest concern expressed by U.N. leaders, international policymakers, climate scientists and activists in Belém at the start of their nearly two-week meeting: Even with China's transition to green energy, the world may be losing the race to avert the worst impacts of global warming.
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased last year by the largest amount on record. Ocean temperatures, which play a key role in carbon sequestration, have reached record highs. The planet's temperature over the past three years has been the highest on record.
And even with China's recalibration, the main tool to reverse this warming trend—a massive, worldwide shift away from fossil fuels—still seems a distant prospect.
Likewise, it is possible that the effects of global warming will be sufficiently reversed to meet the goal set at the landmark climate conference in Paris 10 years ago of keeping the planet warmer to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Notably, the Paris Agreement was made possible by a coordinated effort between the United States and China, their last major joint initiative before tensions began to escalate between the world's two largest economies.
Now the future of climate change policy may depend on the competition between their very different views on how to proceed.
Polls have shown that fewer and fewer people around the world share Trump's belief that climate change is a “hoax.”
The growing frequency and intensity of so-called extreme events – storms and floods, heat waves and wildfires – have heightened concerns about their impacts.
But Mr. Trump's argument that other issues, such as economic issues related to jobs and immigration, should take precedence does resonate among a number of large developed countries, especially in Europe. There, political leaders faced new obstacles as they sought to advance green policies.
And it is in the area of potential economic benefits that the competition between the United States and China on climate change may well be decided.
Xi Jinping's investments in clean energy technologies, equipment and products are not driven solely by climate science or the impact of climate change on the weather.
This is an economic calculation.
For China, going green is not a cost. This is an opportunity.
