MPs return to Ottawa on Monday to prepare for a vote that could send Canadians back to the polls just seven months after the last federal election.
After a short break of a week, federal politicians will cast their vote for the Prime Minister. Mark Carney first budget following the Liberals' re-election in April.
This election left Carney with a minority government, meaning he needs the support of at least one party – or for several of its members to fail to vote – to pass the bills and prevent another campaign.
The Liberals currently have 170 seats in the House of Representatives, two seats short of a majority, but with Francis Scarpaleggia as speaker the government only has 169 votes they can count on.
On Friday, Global News contacted the office of Conservative leader Pierre Poiliève if they planned to hold a vote to ensure that all MPs voted against the budget, but did not receive a clear answer.
“Conservatives will vote against Carney's costly credit card budget, which raises the cost of living for every Canadian,” said Poilievre's communications director Katie Merrifield.
The Bloc Québécois has made it clear it will not vote on the budget.
Green Party MP Elizabeth May has said she will not vote for the budget in its current form, but she has discussed amendments with Carney that could change her vote.
If May and all Conservative and Bloc MPs vote against the budget, that would be 166 votes, four fewer than his defeat.
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If May joins the Liberals, it would give the government just 170 votes and would require two other MPs to vote with them.
NDP Leader Don Davis has signaled he is willing to work with the government, but has not said how his party will vote on the budget.
“Canadians elected a minority government, they didn't give any one party enough seats to govern alone, they sent a clear message that they want MPs to work together on the big issues facing our country,” he said in a speech to the BC NDP convention on Saturday in Victoria. “Canada's New Democrats are doing what we always do: we are putting forward ideas that will make life better for working people, and we are open to working with government to achieve those goals.”
Davis cited issues such as massive construction of affordable housing, strengthening public health and creating good-paying jobs, “especially for young people and traditionally disadvantaged groups.”
If the Liberals do get NDP support, that would equal 176 votes, which would be enough to pass the budget.
The government could also avoid a potential collapse on Monday if some opposition MPs fail to vote, such as what happened earlier this month when four Conservative MPs skipped a vote on budget amendments seen as confidence-building measures.
Ontario MP Michael Chong said he was traveling and had problems with electronic voting, while Alberta MP Shannon Stubbs said she missed voting due to health issues. Alberta MP Leila Goodridge issued an emailed statement saying she was in Chad for a meeting of Francophonie parliamentarians and plans to take part in the main budget vote on November 17. Matt Genereux, who announced shortly after the budget was presented that he planned to step down as a lawmaker, also missed two votes but did not respond to requests for comment.
Just four absences would result in the government and four opposition parties receiving 169 votes each, ensuring a tie with Scarpalegia casting the casting vote. In most cases, parliamentary tradition suggests that the speaker votes with the government to maintain the status quo, meaning that the budget is likely to pass even if there is a tie.
—with files from Global News' Mackenzie Gray
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