Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Sunday that the Cartel de los Soles, the criminal enterprise nominally led by Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, will be designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).
.@StateDept intends to designate the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). Led by the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro, the group has corrupted Venezuelan government institutions and is responsible for terrorist violence committed by and with others…
— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) November 16, 2025
@StateDept intends to designate the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). Led by the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro, the group has corrupted Venezuelan government institutions and is responsible for terrorist violence carried out by and in conjunction with other designated terrorist organizations, as well as drug trafficking into the United States and Europe.
The State Department said in a statement that the appointment will take effect in November. 24.
The State Department intends to designate the Cartel de los Soles a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) effective November 24, 2025. The Cartel de los Soles, based in Venezuela, is led by Nicolás Maduro and other high-ranking officials of the illegitimate Maduro regime, who have corrupted the military, intelligence, legislative and judicial systems of Venezuela. Neither Maduro nor his cronies represent the legitimate government of Venezuela. The Cartel de los Soles, created by and in conjunction with other designated international terrorist organizations, including the Tren de Aragua and the Sinaloa Cartel, is responsible for terrorist violence throughout our hemisphere, as well as drug trafficking into the United States and Europe.
So why did Secretary of State Marco Rubio make this announcement at 5:38 pm on Sunday? And why was it so important that State published an official ballot around the same time?
As we all know, the US is building up forces in the southern Caribbean and rebuilding military bases in Puerto Rico. On the military front, the final piece of the puzzle fell into place with the arrival of Carrier Strike Group 12, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford; see SecWar Pete Hegseth Announces Operation Southern Lance as US Carrier Strike Group Enters Caribbean – RedState.
Interesting items
1. As my colleague Susie Moore wrote regarding President Trump's confirmation that negotiations with Maduro are ongoing; see Trump causes a stir: negotiations with Maduro “could happen” – RedState.
.@POTHUS on Venezuela: “Perhaps we will have some discussions with Maduro and see how it turns out, but they would like to talk.” pic.twitter.com/ooeKngFUch
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 16, 2025
Interestingly, this comment came just an hour after Rubio's statement.
2. Maduro clearly does not want to fight, but it is unclear whether he is really in power.
3. In retrospect, it is curious that although the State Department almost all are marked The Mexican cartels, as well as the El Salvador-based MS-13 as FTO, the Sun Cartel, have so far been ignored despite our campaign to destroy their drug ships.
4. Sun Cartel This is first and foremost a military operation. It predates both Maduro and Hugo Chavez. He is closely associated with guerrillas and drug cartels in Colombia.
5. Nobel Prize winner and Venezuelan freedom fighter. Maria Corina On Saturday, Machado began broadcasting calls for Venezuela's armed forces to lay down their arms.
Urgent appeal from Maria Corina Machado to the Venezuelan military:
“What must happen is already happening. This decisive hour is inevitable. Act now, at this very moment. Put down your guns, do not attack your people, decide today to stand up for the freedom of Venezuela… pic.twitter.com/q9MpmG7gVF
— Cartel Watch (@CartelWatchNet) November 16, 2025
“What must happen is already happening. This decisive hour is inevitable. Act now, at this very moment. Put down your weapons, do not attack your people, decide today to stand up for the freedom of Venezuela when the exact hour comes.
The worst hostages are those who are forced to commit this barbarity. Those who obey shameful orders destroy the lives of their brothers. They feel guilty. They cannot look their children or their mothers in the eye.
The position that each of you takes will remain in your life forever. History, law and the Venezuelan people will be your judges!”
Pure hypothesis
As I have written many times, the accumulation of armed forces has its own logic. If the other side doesn't meet your demands, you either exploit it or escape, leaving an emboldened enemy behind. What you cannot do is maintain this power indefinitely. I think the last element of the force that could topple Maduro has arrived in CSG 12. Maduro is in a difficult position. He reportedly wants to leave, but the stumbling block is that the conditional new government will be headed by Machado, and the military firmly believes that she is unacceptable. Without a change of government, Trump will have no incentive to give Maduro the plane ticket and freedom to prosecute that he wants.
On Saturday, Machado begins radio broadcasts to the Venezuelan military asking them to lay down their arms when “the exact hour comes.” According to her, this hour is inevitable.
On Sunday, Rubio announces the Sun Cartel FTO. This effectively criminalizes all senior ranks of the Venezuelan army. Suddenly they face long prison sentences in very unpleasant places if the US invades and the military lays down its arms. Spoiler alert: Some units of the Venezuelan army will fight, but most will disappear. The one-week grace period gives military officers the opportunity to negotiate a surrender without being treated as a drug cartel.
Trump coming out and saying, “We'll probably have some discussions with Maduro and we'll see how that turns out, but they'd like to talk,” that's interesting. He did this just an hour after Rubio announced that the Sun Cartel would become an FTO within a week. He also says, “They would like to talk.” This may lead one to believe that he is negotiating with the Venezuelan army for a peaceful transfer of power to Machado, who says: “The decisive hour is imminent.” Procurement-speak, they got it”best and final offer.“
Last minutes?
Regardless of the accuracy of my guess, I think the November 24 deadline gives us a date to focus on. If Maduro doesn't decide by now to catch the first thing smoking in Caracas, his turkey will be cooked.
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