11 week in NFL there was no shortage of drama, as many of the early games failed miserably.
Right out of the gate, the Sunday program opened with a scandalous intrigue between Dolphins And Commanders from Madrid, requiring overtime to make Miami the winner. And as we moved into the afternoon schedule, one-possession games became a theme throughout. Bears And Texans got another win in the column thanks to last-second field goals, and Packers narrowly escaped New York with a win over Jameis Winston's team. Giants.
There was a lot to digest in Sunday's episode, and a lot of storylines grew out of all that action. But let's analyze and decipher some of these storylines that we should take seriously and others with a grain of salt because they don't mean as much as they might seem.
NFL Week 11 grades: Josh Allen gives Bills an A-, Broncos a B+ for upset win over Chiefs
John Breech
The Dolphins are back in the AFC playoff picture
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Miami begins Week 12 on a high note. The club won three of its last four games to move to 4–7 on the season. While this has straightened things out somewhat and cooled coach Mike McDaniel's position, this recent surge won't get them back into the playoff picture. This positive streak could continue in matches against Saints And Jets (road) in weeks 13 and 14, but after that the schedule gets much tougher. Assuming they take care of business in these two games and get to 6-7, they'll be hard-pressed to reach or exceed .500 in the final month. They take over Steelers in Pittsburgh on “Monday Night Football” in Week 15 before back-to-back home games against Bengals (probably with Joe Burrow again as a quarterback) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They then close out the year in New England against Patriots. Miami likely won't have a favorite in any of those final four games, so the recent surge could be in vain as it gets knocked out in the final four weeks.
Chargers risks missing the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Reality
It was a rough performance by the Chargers, who were overwhelmed. Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, 35-6. Justin Herbert continues to get his fair share of hits, but the quarterback has also laid an egg. He completed 10 of his 18 passes for just 81 yards and an interception. The loss now drops the Chargers to 7-4 on the year and does them no favors in the playoff race. They lost to Jacksonville (6-4) in the deciding tiebreaker in the wild card race and still face a daunting schedule after a Week 12 bye.
Los Angeles' next three opponents boast a strong passing game, which could further exploit the Chargers' weakness in Herbert's defense. After seeing their offense falter and be under siege again on Sunday against Jacksonville, their position in the AFC playoffs doesn't seem secure.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Overall, McCarthy was not good against Chicago, even though the Vikings nearly pulled off another fourth-quarter comeback against their division rival. McCarthy completed just 16 of 32 passes for 150 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. McCarthy has now thrown eight interceptions in five career starts and is the first quarterback to record an interception in five straight games to start his career since. Zach Wilson in 2021. This is not exactly the company you want to keep in NFL record books. But does this lead us to the point where Minnesota must replace McCarthy? It seems like a step too far, at least for now. The Vikings used McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 draft and moved on from him. Sam Darnold this offseason to bring that selection to fruition. Just five starts is too small a sample size to pass on him and essentially give up any hope of him being their franchise quarterback of the future. It didn't look good, but the organization needs to hold out and give McCarthy the rest of the season before making any long-term statements.
Packers are not serious Super Bowl threat
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Green Bay once again downplayed its competitors. Although it didn't result in a loss this time, the Packers needed a solid touchdown and a two-point conversion to fend off the New York Giants. Remember, this is a Giants team that just fired its coach and its budding star at quarterback. Jackson Dartreceived a concussion. Despite this lopsided talent disparity, Green Bay allowed the Jameis Winston-led Giants to score 336 yards of total offense. New York outscored the Packers in total yards and time of possession in Week 11. Again, this is a Giants team that will compete for the No. 1 overall spot. When you combine this performance (albeit a win) with previous losses this season to Cleveland Browns And Carolina PanthersIt's hard to look at the Packers as serious Super Bowl threat in NFC at the moment.
Dave Canales is crazy
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Carolina Panthers (6-5) are back above .500 with an impressive overtime win over Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The club finished the season with a win over its division rival and sits in second place in the NFC South, just a game behind the Buccaneers in the loss column (6-4). Carolina was one of the surprise teams of the 2025 season, and Dave Canales got the most out of his roster, especially at quarterback. Bryce Young. All this has cooled what used to be one of the hottest places in NFL. However, was Canales able to completely abandon the hot position? Not yet. The road ahead of the Panthers is very difficult as they face San Francisco 49ers And Los Angeles Rams over the next two weeks before their 14th week bye. In the last month they have two division games against the Buccaneers and a matchup against the Buccaneers. Seattle Seahawks. Such a tough schedule for the second half could end the 2025 campaign on a low note, leaving questions about Canales' future despite this positive result so far.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
I think we've seen a brief glimpse of why Kevin Stefanski isn't eager to see Sheader Sanders under center. Coming under duress after Dillon Gabriel A concussion isn't the cleanest debut, and Sanders wasn't great either. The game looked fast for him as he completed just four of his 16 pass attempts for 47 yards, an interception and was sacked twice. He could get the starting nod next week if Gabriel can't crack the scoresheet, but Sanders didn't do much in this performance to embolden those who believe he's a starting-caliber player. NFL defender.
Sam Darnold turned into a pumpkin
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Four interceptions. Ugh. It was a terrifying performance from Sam Darnold, who recorded the third four-plus interception game of his career and the first since his infamous “Seeing Ghosts” game with the Jets in 2019. Despite his remarkable resurgence over the past two years, Darnold's 30 turnovers since 2024 are the most in the NFL, so seeing his play deteriorate the way we did on Sunday is concerning. Does this mean he has completely turned into a pumpkin? I don't think we should go that far. Darnold has been one of the league's best defenders this season, but he was matched up against one of the league's best defenses in the Los Angeles Rams. Sean McVay appears to have his number as well, as they were able to pull it during Wild Card Weekend last season as well. You can just chalk it up to a poor performance against a team that doesn't suit him rather than the first sign that Seattle's playoff hopes are fading.
The 49ers are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Welcome, Brock Purdy! With their franchise guard back at center after missing most of the season with a toe injury, San Francisco gave up a season-high 41 points en route to a blowout win over the team. Cardinals. The Niners are currently 7-4 on the season and in excellent position to make the playoffs. In fact, this team has a chance to rack up enough wins down the road to claim first place.
The next two weeks include a home game against the Carolina Panthers (currently a touchdown favorite) and a road contest against the Cleveland Browns, where they could very well see them with a 9-4 record in Week 14. After that, three of the final four games will be at home, with the final road contest coming in Week 16 in Indianapolis. In addition to this matchup, they will host Tennessee (Week 15), Chicago (Week 17) and Seattle (Week 18). Even if they hit .500 over the past month, you're looking at an 11-6 record, which could be pretty good, especially since they currently hold the division tiebreaker (4-1 record after Week 11) over the NFC West-leading Rams (2-1) and a stellar 7-2 conference record (another key tiebreaker).
The Chiefs' hopes of winning the AFC West are dashed.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Kansas City's bid for 10 straight AFC West titles is on life support. With Sunday's loss to the Broncos, not only have the Chiefs dropped to .500 on the season at 5-5, but Denver has significantly expanded its division lead. At 9-2, they are two games ahead of the Chargers and three games ahead of KC in the loss column. That doesn't even take into account the current tiebreaker advantage they earned in Week 11. The road isn't getting any easier for the Chiefs either, as they will now have to carry out Colts a team that just finished a bye week before turning around and visiting the Cowboys for Thanksgiving. This will require titanic efforts on the part of Patrick Mahomes and Co., and the Broncos' complete collapse for their Week 17 finale to carry any weight in this division race.
Detroit's offense is broken
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Lions offense performed abysmally Sunday night in Philadelphia. The unit scored just nine points, failed to convert any of its five chances in the fourth, and Jared Goff had a scare after the jump. The Detroit QB completed just 14 of his 37 passes, a career-low 38%. Most notably, he finished the game having completed just two of his final 18 attempts. Gross. While Goff and the offense certainly deserve a big chunk of the blame for their loss, it also discredits Philadelphia for having one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Eagles' defense came into this game after putting Green Bay in a similar mix in Week 10, so that may say more about Philadelphia's team than any overall problem with Detroit's offense.
