There are more than 1,000 days left until the 2028 presidential election, but you probably won't know it from everyone assumptions and expectations it travels from Sacramento to the Washington Beltway.
Standing in the spotlight is California Governor Gavin Newsomjust from mine big win for Proposition 50, backatcha ballot measure What forged a state congressional map to support Democrats and compensate Texas Republican power grab.
Newsom is running for the White Houseand have done this before best part of the yearAlthough he won't say it out loud. Is Newsom the Democratic front-runner or just misfire?
Times columnists Anita Chhabria And Mark Z. Barabak disagree on Newsom's presidential prospects, etc. Here they discuss some of their differences.
Barabak: So, is the presidential race over, Anita? Should I just spend the next few years hiking and snowboarding in the Sierra and return in January 2029 to watch Newsom repeat the actions, meet the moment and be sworn in with intention as our nation's 48th president?
Chhabria: You should definitely spend as much time in the Sierra as possible, but I have no idea whether Newsom will be elected president in 2028 or not. In political terms, it's about a million light years away. But I think he has a chance, and right now he is the favorite for this nomination. He presented himself as foil for quick perforation to President Trump and increasingly as the leader of the Democratic Party. Last week he visited Brazil for climate summit What Trump ghostwhich gave Newsom an American presence.
And in recent (albeit small) surveyin a hypothetical race against JD Vancethe current Republican favorite, Newsom leads by three points. Although, unexpectedly, respondents still chose Kamala Harris as their choice for nomination.
In my opinion, this shows that he is popular throughout the country. But you have warned that Californians will have a hard time pulling voters in other states. Do you think his Golden State roots will kill his status as a contender?
Barabak: I don't make predictions. I'm smart enough to know that I am not smart enough to know. And, after 2016 and Trump electionThe words “can’t”, “don’t”, “won’t”, “never” are forever erased from my political vocabulary.
However, I wouldn't bet more than a penny on the bet, which might be worth something in the long run since they phased out our currency – about Newsom's chances.
Look, I'm not inferior to anyone my love for California. (And I have the Golden State tattoos to prove it.) But I remember how the rest of the country views the state and those politicians who have a California return address. You can be sure that whoever runs against Newsom (I'm talking about his fellow Democrats, not just Republicans) will have a lot to say about the state of the state. housing is much higher than anywhere else, grocery And gas prices and ours shameful level of poverty And homelessness.
Not the best image for Newsom, especially when accessibility is all political rage these days.
And while I understand the governor’s call – Fight! Fight! Fight! “I compare it to a passing fancy that for a while made the lawyer convicted fraudster And rhetorical battering ram Michael Avenatti seriously discussed as a Democratic presidential candidate. At some point—and that is many years away—people will evaluate candidates with their heads rather than their guts.
For polls, ask Edmund Muskie, Gary Hart or Hillary Clinton how important these feelings are at this extremely early stage of the presidential race. Well, you can't ask Masky, because the former Maine State Senator Died. But all three were the first front-runners to fail to win the Democratic nomination.
Chhabria: I don't argue with the historical arguments against the Golden State, but I do argue that these are different days. People don't vote with their heads. Fight me on this.
They vote for charisma, tribalism, and perhaps hope and fear. They vote on issues that are explained on social media. They vote for memes.
There is no reality in which our next president would be rationally assessed on his record—our the current president has a criminal record and it didn't matter.
But I think, as we've talked about ad nauseum, that democracy is in danger. Trump has threatened to run for a third term, and recently… complained that his office does not show him the same fear that Chinese President Xi Jinping feels from his top advisers. And Vance, if he gets a chance to run, has made that clear. he is a Christian nationalist who would like to deport almost every immigrant he can catch, legal or not.
Being a Californian may not be the disadvantage it historically was, especially if Trump's authoritarianism continues and this state remains symbol of resistance.
But our governor urgently needs to deal with the scandal. His former chief of staff, Dana Williamson, just arrested on federal corruption charges. Do you think it will hurt him?
Barabak: It shouldn't be.
There is no evidence of wrongdoing on Newsom's part. His opponents will try to apply the idea of “guilt by association.” Some have already done this. But unless something incriminating comes to light, there is no reason why the governor should be punished for it. Williamson's alleged offense or other persons accused in this case.
But let's go back to 2028 and the presidential race. I think one of our fundamental disagreements is that I believe that people do really value the candidate's ideas and achievements. Not in such detailed form as some political scientist stroking his chin would do. But voters want to know how and whether a candidate can significantly improve their lives.
Of course, there are many who would reflexively support Donald Trump or Donald Duck for that matter, if he is the Republican candidate. The same goes for Democrats who would vote for Gavin Newsom or Gavin Floyd if either were the party's nominee. (While Newsome played college baseball, Floyd spent 13 seasons in the major leagues, so he has that advantage over the governor.)
But I'm talking about those voters who are up for grabs—those who decide competitive races—who are making a very rational decision based on their lives and livelihoods and which candidate they think will benefit them the most.
Of course, in a primary competition the dynamics are a little different. But even then, we saw the whole dating/married phenomenon over and over again. Just like in 2004, when many Democrats “met” with Howard Dean at the beginning of the first season, but “married” to John Kerry. I understand possibility of election — as in the perception of which Democrat is likely to win the general election — being on par with availability when it comes time for primary voters to make their choice in 2028.
Chhabria: Without a doubt, affordability will be a huge issue, especially if Consumer confidence continues to fall. And we will definitely hear criticism of California, many of which, as you noted, are fair. Housing is too expensive, homelessness remains intractable.
But these are also problems throughout the United States, and they require deeper solutions than even it is an economically powerful state can handle it alone. The vision for the future will matter more than past records. What's the plan?
This can't be true uncertain tax benefits or even student loan forgiveness. We need a concrete vision of an economy that brings not only more basic things like houses, but the kind of long-term economic stability—higher wages, good schools, living-wage jobs—that will allow the middle class is stronger and more accessible.
A Democrat who can lay out that vision while continuing to fight authoritarian creep In my humble opinion, eating away at our democracy at this time will be what voters choose, regardless of origin history. After all, it was a message of change with the hope that gave us President Obamaanother candidate a lot was initially considered unlikely.
Mark, are there any prospects for 2028 that you're watching particularly closely?
Barabak: I'm looking at the elections one at a time, starting with 2026 midterm electionswhich include open race for governor here in California. The results of November 2026 will be of great importance in shaping the dynamics in November 2028. Still, there is no shortage of Democrats watching the race—too many to list here. Will that number exceed the 29 major Democrats who ran in 2020? Let's see.
I agree with you that to have any chance of winning in 2028, whoever the Democrats nominate will have to come up with serious and meaningful ideas about how to make people's lives materially better. Putting aside the threat to democracy and frightening authoritarianism, this still Economics is stupid.
This completes the circle, bringing us back to our cheerful governor. He may be winning fans and building his national fundraising base with his snarky memes and sharp Trump insults. But even if he overcomes the ingrained anti-California bias among so many voters outside our blessed state, he has no intention of doing so. get into the White House.
I'd bet more than a penny on it.
