WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has made no secret of how badly he wants Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations.
He has described his push to extend his first term of the Abraham Accords – a project that formalized commercial and diplomatic ties between Israel and three Arab countries – as key to his plan to ensure long-term stability in the Middle East as the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip continues to hold.
Normalization is expected to be high on the agenda when Trump hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for talks on Tuesday during a pompous visit to the White House.
“I hope that Saudi Arabia will sign the Abraham Accords very soon,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday as he headed to Florida for the weekend.
However, Trump's optimism that a US-brokered deal could be reached soon is tempered by more sober domestic assessments. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to sign a deal anytime soon, but there is cautious optimism that an agreement could be reached by the end of Trump's second term, according to three administration officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
The first Trump administration and its successor, the Biden administration, tried to persuade Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. But those hopes were dashed first by opposition from the crown prince's father, King Salman, during Trump's first term, and then by Prince Mohammed himself after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel that sparked the Gaza War.
While the crown prince, widely known as MBS, has signaled that he can be more flexible than his father on the issue, a guaranteed path to a Palestinian state remains a condition that Israel vehemently opposes.
Trump could try to convince Prince Mohammed that the American leader's 20-point peace plan for Gaza represents just such a path. However, this could anger Israelis and their cooperation in the effort, especially if the Republican president promises a detailed timetable for meeting the benchmarks.
One official said the best outcome of this week's talks, from a U.S. perspective, might be the Saudis recognizing Trump's plan as a starting point for eventual Palestinian statehood and publicly agreeing to consider joining the accords.
Saudis want path to Palestinian statehood
In recent weeks, Trump has predicted that once Saudi Arabia signs the agreements, “everyone” in the Arab world will “be in.” He said the Saudis would join, given that the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip was being held.
“There are a lot of people who have joined the Abraham Accords now, and we hope that Saudi Arabia will join us very soon,” Trump said in a speech to business leaders this month, where Princess Reema Bandar Al Saud, the Saudi ambassador to Washington, was a special guest. Trump jokingly assured the diplomat: “I don’t lobby.”
Trump says his optimism is based on what he sees as a seismic shift in the dynamics of the Middle East, which he believes has created an opportunity for regional leaders to strive for lasting peace.
Iran, a common enemy of the Saudis and Israelis, has seen its number of proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen dwindle after two years of conflict in the Middle East, and Tehran's nuclear program was halted by US strikes in June. These factors helped lay the groundwork for an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, Trump said.
Yet Trump's public credibility remains difficult to reconcile with Saudi Arabia's position that any normalization agreement requires first establishing a clear path to Palestinian statehood.
However, the visit could provide an opportunity for Trump to ease the crown prince's path to his ultimate goal, especially if Trump can show that he is receptive to the need for a Palestinian state.
“Trump showing openness and even support for a Palestinian state could go a long way in his hopes of pushing MBS toward normalization,” said John Hannah, who served as national security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney.
But Trump certainly faces some hurdles in persuading Prince Mohammed to join them, at least in the near future.
The searing images of the war between Israel and Hamas remain fresh, and rebuilding the devastated area will require years of effort.
Israel and Hamas have made slow progress in recovering the remains of the last hostages in the Gaza Strip. But several major decisions on the horizon – disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of an international security force in the territory and the creation of an alternative governance structure for the post-Hamas Gaza Strip – could undermine the fragile truce if things go wrong.
Continued Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank has deepened regional mistrust of Israel.
“As long as scenes on Saudi television continue to show scenes of devastation and suffering in the Gaza Strip, I think it will be very difficult for MBS to move in this direction,” said Jonathan Shanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank. “However, I also believe there are things the Saudis can do, as they have done in the past, to advance the normalization process throughout the region.”
Fighter deal seems unlikely during visit
The crown prince is expected to come to the White House with a wish list that includes formal assurances from Trump outlining the scope of US military protection for the kingdom, as well as an agreement to buy US F-35 fighter jets, one of the most advanced aircraft in the world.
But as the White House finalized preparations for the visit, it was unlikely that Trump was ready to sign the fighter jet deal, administration officials said. But they noted that Trump has a reputation for being unpredictable and could decide to approve the sale if the crown prince somehow convinces him.
The officials said the administration remains wary of eroding Israel's “qualitative military advantage” over its neighbors, especially at a time when Trump depends on Israeli support for the success of his Gaza peace plan.
Another long-standing concern that has also hampered a potential similar sale to the United Arab Emirates is that F-35 technology could be stolen or somehow transferred to China, which has close ties to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The crown prince's price for normalization only increased after the events in Gaza, said Hannah, a former Cheney aide who is now a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. But Hannah said it would be unwise for Trump to give up his influence.
“I think it would be foolish not to insist that the eventual integration of these aircraft into the Saudi order of battle is linked to normalization and a more fundamental and permanent transformation of Saudi-Israeli relations and the regional security landscape,” Khanna said.
