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From new stealth bombers to artificially intelligent drones, the United States and China are reshaping their air forces to face off in the Pacific, each betting that its technology can keep the other out of the skies.
The US is charging ahead with its next-generation fighter jet, the F-47, while China struggles to catch up with planes designed in line with the F-35 and F-22.
After a short program break in 2024 Air Force In March, the company awarded Boeing a contract for the F-47, a sixth-generation manned fighter designed to anchor the next U.S. air superiority fleet. The first flight is expected in 2028.
At the same time, the B-21 Raider, a stealth successor to the B-2, is in testing at Edwards Air Force Base. The Air Force plans to buy at least 100 Raider aircraft, each designed to survive in China's heavily defended airspace.
The Pentagon is also betting on Joint combat aircraftor CCA are drones designed to fly alongside fighter jets as “trusty wingmen.” Prototypes from Anduril and General Atomics are already in the air. Officials say CCA will allow one pilot to fly multiple drones at the same time.
China is ahead of the rest of the world in the commercial drone market, but that doesn't necessarily give it an advantage from a military perspective.
U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff David Alwyn, President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth unveil the sixth-generation F-47 fighter jet in the Oval Office of the White House. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria)
“I'm not sure that's really true. In terms of high-end military drones, which are really important in this fight, the US still has a pretty significant advantage.” said Eric Heginbotham, a research fellow at MIT's Center for International Studies.
He pointed to the Air Force. stealth reconnaissance platforms – RQ-170 and RQ-180 – and future “trusty wingman” drones designed to fly with fighter jets, as proof that the US continues to lead in advanced integration and stealth technologies.
HIGH STAKES ON THE HIGH SEAS AS THE US AND CHINA TEST THE LIMITS OF MILITARY POWER
Chinese leap forward
Modernization of the Chinese Air Force has accelerated as the US changes its force structure. Beijing has focused on three priorities – stealth, engines and aircraft carriers – areas that have long constrained its military.
The Chengdu J-20, China's flagship stealth fighter, is powered by the new WS-15 engine, a domestically produced powerplant designed to compete with American engines.
“It took them a while to get out of the fifth-gen jam, especially to get performance close to fifth-gen levels in the U.S.,” Heginbotham said. “The J-20 doesn't really have a lot of the features that even the F-22 has, and we've had the F-22 for a long time.”
Meanwhile, China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, was commissioned this fall—the first with electromagnetic catapults similar to the American Ford-class carriers. The move signals Beijing's desire to launch stealth aircraft from the sea and project power far beyond its shores.
Together, the J-20, carrier-based J-35 and Fujian create a multi-layered network of Chinese air forces – stealth aircraft on land and at sea, backed by a growing missile cover.
Chinese military scriptures call airfields critically vulnerable locations. PLA campaign manuals call for striking airstrips early in a conflict to paralyze enemy air operations before they can begin. Analysts believe several days of concentrated missile attacks could damage U.S. bases in Japan, Okinawa and Guam.
“American forward-deployed bases, especially in Okinawa, but also in Mainland Japan and Guam — are under Chinese missile attack,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “In our military exercises, the Chinese periodically fired missiles at these air bases and destroyed dozens and in some cases even hundreds of American aircraft.”
Heginbotham said the heavy missile strategy arose directly from early Chinese air weaknesses.
The B-21 Raider is the Air Force's next-generation bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons. (U.S. Air Force photo)
“They didn’t think they could achieve air superiority in direct air-to-air combat,” he said. “So you need another way to deliver missiles—and that other way is to build a lot of ground-based launchers.”
Different strategies, same goal
Both armies are on different paths to the same goal: air supremacy over the Pacific Ocean.
The US approach is based on fewer high-tech aircraft linked by sensors and artificial intelligence. The goal: strike first from a distance and survive in the contested skies.
China's model is all about volume – mass production of fighter jets, missiles and aircraft carrier sorties to overwhelm US defenses and logistics.
“The American fighters—the F-35, the F-15, the F-22—are relatively short-legged, so they have to get close to Taiwan if they're going to engage in combat,” Kangsian said. “They can't fight from Guam, and they certainly can't fight from further away. So if they're going to fight, they have to be inside the Chinese defense bubble.”
Both sides face the same problem: surviving inside this bubble. China's expanding missile range is pushing American aircraft away from the fight, while American bombers and drones are designed to fight back.
Fight for survival
Heginbotham said the next decade of air competition will be determined by survivability, not dogfights.
“We keep talking about planes as if it's going to be like World War II—they're taking off, they're fighting each other. It’s not really our problem,” he said. “Our problem is the air bases themselves and the fact that aircraft can be destroyed at the air base.”
China, he warned, is preparing for this reality, but the United States is not.
“They practice runway strikes in exercises, they simulate these things all the time,” Heginbotham said. “Unlike the US, China is strengthening its air bases. The US is grossly negligent in refusing to strengthen its air bases.”
The results of Canzian's war games confirm this vulnerability. He said U.S. surface ships and aircraft would likely have to come under missile fire again in the early days of the conflict.
The Chengdu J-20, China's flagship stealth fighter, is powered by the new WS-15 engine, a homegrown powerplant designed to compete with American engines. (China Daily via Reuters)
“In the initial stages of the conflict, China will have a clear advantage,” Canzian said. “Now, over time, the US will be able to strengthen its forces, and that will change.”
Looking to the future
The Pentagon budget for fiscal year 2026-2027 will determine how quickly the United States can build its F-47, B-21 and CCA — the systems that will define American air power in the 2030s.
China's rapid modernization is closing what was once a huge gap, but the US still has advantages in stealth integration, combat experience and autonomous systems.
“The ability to protect our aircraft, whatever form they take, on the ground will be critical to our ability to fight in the Asian theater,” Heginbotham said.
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“Survivability will be critical… The ability to defend and distribute our firepower will be critical to whether we can actually stay in this game.”
For decades, US air supremacy was taken for granted. In the Pacific, this advantage is no longer guaranteed.
