Colossal clashes between some of the sport's top teams promised some changes in the new college football rankings, and now voters in the AP poll's Top 25 will have some tough decisions to make as they prepare to respond to the chaotic nature of Week 12.
Among the many challenges of trying to pit teams against each other is head-to-head conflict between teams with similar resumes. Oklahoma is clearly one of the biggest winners weekend after traveling to Tuscaloosa and beating Alabama, leaving both teams with 8-2 records the following week. But while voters may decide to move Alabama down and Oklahoma up, there are issues to negotiate, such as the value of a Crimson Tide win over top-five Georgia, as well as the Sooners' loss to A Texas team that just lost by double digits in Athens..
It's worth noting that head-to-head results shouldn't be the deciding factor when we reach this point this season, as enough games have been played this season to provide context and a better understanding of a team's strengths and weaknesses. But untangling those knots is no easy task, and in our projections, we think voters will be influenced by the recency bias of Oklahoma's impressive win to push the Sooners well ahead of the Longhorns into a top-10 position, making them the highest-ranked team with two losses in the AP Top 25 poll.
Another big storyline in Week 12 related to the rankings was the upsets that didn't happen, or more accurately, the heroic comebacks of ranked teams that faced deficits in tough spots. Texas A&M makes biggest comeback in history against South Carolina To maintain their undefeated record, Georgia Tech came back from double-digit points in the fourth quarter to beat Boston College, and USC scored the final 19 points of the game to beat Iowa by five. Any of these results flipped the other way could have a significant impact on the rankings, but instead these top 20 teams will remain largely close to their previous position despite the upset scare.
Bowl Predictions: Georgia advances to first round of College Football Playoff, Oklahoma advances to bracket
Brad Crawford
Another tough decision for AP voters will be filling the 20th spot on the ballot as, once again, many of the teams in those positions lost. When teams 19, 22, 23 and 25 suffer defeats, it's easy to remove them from the ballot, but harder to find suitable replacements. After evaluating last week's voting and the Week 12 results, we're predicting an influx of American teams, but there are some three-loss conference teams that could end up receiving a lot of votes as they move back into the top 25 in these late stages of the season.
Here's what we think the AP Top 25 will look like on Sunday after Week 12 results:
1. Ohio State (last week – 1): No major changes are expected as Ohio State handled business at home against UCLA and improved to 10-0 from last year.
2. Indiana (2): The Hoosiers started off slow, but once Fernando Mendoza and the offense took off, Wisconsin had a hard time stopping this group. At the end of four quarters, the final score of 31-7 was more than enough to satisfy voters seeking confirmation of Indiana's current ranking.
3. Texas A&M (3): The notion that Texas A&M is more worthy of consideration as a No. 1 or No. 2 was put to the test during halftime of a 30-3 home loss against South Carolina. The Aggies certainly showed championship form with their resilience and second-half comeback, but as far as the polls were concerned, the only bonus was avoiding a forfeit for the loss.
4. Georgia (5): The Bulldogs showed a class difference in the heavyweight battle, looking more like a team worthy of consideration for a top College Football Playoff spot than a team to worry about in the bubble as a whole. The Bulldogs' early-season loss to Alabama is long in the past as the group that took the field in Athens on Saturday night appears poised for a deep postseason run.
5. Ole Miss (6): A career night from running back Kevan Lacy and a strong defensive performance in the second half helped the Rebels avoid disaster and close out the game with a goal. Win over Florida 34-24..
6. Oregon (7): With slightly better health and a slightly better environment than last week's sloppy game against Iowa, Oregon stretched its offense a bit in a 42-13 win over Minnesota. These are impressive results for a quick turnaround, but it's harder to predict whether it will inspire voters to take decisive action at the ballot box.
7. Texas Tech (8): It was a stellar day for the Red Raiders as the team made an impressive encore of their win over BYU last week. UCF's offense never stood a chance against one of the best defenses in the country, and Texas Tech's star linebacker even Jacob Rodriguez threw touchdown passes and struck the Heisman pose in the 48-9 victory.
8. OXOOy (11): The title of “best two-loss team” has a new contender after Oklahoma's road win over Alabama. The Sooners have victories over teams ranked No. 4, No. 18 and No. 21 in the AP Top 25 poll last week. Since laying the offensive egg in the Red River Rivalry against Texas, this team is 3-1 with its only loss coming to Ole Miss.
9. Alabama (4): Voters will have to apply some different guidelines to include Alabama in the rankings, which will likely be a step back in the rankings. Saturday's 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma gives the Sooners an easy head-to-head advantage, so the expected range is somewhere between Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.
10. Notre Dame (9): The Fighting Irish jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and never looked back, defeating Pitt 37-15 to extend their winning streak to eight games. It will be difficult to move too high in the rankings without some help from other losing teams, but Notre Dame's bona fides as a top-10 team were proven by winning the rankings.
11. BYAU (12): The Cougars should get a point boost in this week's voting after picking it up at TCU in a lopsided late-night win. BYU took a game that many predicted would be close and beat the Horned Frogs by a huge margin. It was the perfect response to a loss to Texas Tech, and now at 9-1, this BYU team is in contention for the Big 12 title for the second straight season.
12. Texas (10): While it's admittedly wild to think that a three-loss team would still be ranked this high in mid-November, there are two factors that really bolster Texas' resume when it comes to finding a spot in the new poll. First are wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, with the Sooners' rising stock clearly helping that analysis. Second is the limited penalty for the loss to Georgia, a team that appears to be in shape to compete for another national title.
13. Vanderbilt (13): The Commodores were eliminated in Week 12 and will return to action next week against Kentucky.
14. Georgia Tech (14): Voters won't be rushing to move Georgia Tech up their ballots after the Yellow Jackets needed a double-digit comeback in the fourth quarter to escape Chestnut Hill with a 36-34 win over Boston College. However, voters have created enough of a gap between the one-loss Yellow Jackets and two-loss teams like Utah and Miami that it's unlikely they can pull off a closer-than-expected win.
15. Utah (15): The Utes were the more efficient team offensively against Baylor, especially on third down, and were able to withstand a big day from Bears quarterback Sawyer Robertson and cruise to an easy 55-28 win.
16. Miami (16): A pick six opened the game for Miami in the first half, and Carson Beck stepped up with three touchdowns in a 41-7 rout of North Carolina State. The Hurricanes are now 8-2 on the year with five 25+ point wins, but losses to SMU and Louisville have them on the sidelines looking at the ACC title shot.
17. USC (17): The Trojans put together an impressive second-half rally after struggling hard against Iowa early in the game and ultimately scored the final 19 points of the game to defeat the Hawkeyes 26-21. USC is now 8-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play and faces a huge opportunity next week with a trip to Eugene to take on Oregon in a battle of former Pac-12 foes.
18. Michigan (18): Sherron Moore noted that most teams don't win football games by committing five turnovers, but the Wolverines found a way to escape Wrigley Field with a 24-22 win over Northwestern. Previously, Michigan had been in no man's land in terms of rankings tied primarily to USC and general confidence in the team's status as a two-loss conference team. With so much turnover lower in the rankings, there would be no reason to move Michigan much, but this performance couldn't cause a jump on the ballot.
19. Virginia (20): Guard Chandler Morris returned to the lineup, and Virginia wasted no time in putting Duke in the early hole and building a lead in a key win in the ACC title race. The Wahoos are now tied with Georgia Tech for first place in the ACC standings and look to maintain their position in the top 25 after a 34-17 road win over the Blue Devils.
20. Tennessee (21): By their own admission, the Vols weren't completely sharp, but the result was never in doubt: a runaway 42-9 win over New Mexico State.
21. James Madison (24): Voters are already ahead of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee with high marks for JMU, but both rankings will factor in style points from the Dukes' 58-10 win over App State.
22. Tulane (NR): The Green Wave was ranked 26th in votes last week and hit the ground running with a 35-24 win over FAU to improve to 8-2 on the year and 5-1 in conference. And while finishing in the top 25 will be an added focus in the final weeks of the season, the real key is securing a spot in the American Championship game. Tulane will enter Week 13 as one of four teams with just one loss in conference play, with games against Temple and Charlotte remaining on the schedule.
23. Missouri (NR): The Tigers were one of the top teams, just outside the top 25 in last week's voting, and were able to hold serve at home in Week 12 with a win over Mississippi State to improve to 7-3 on the season. The Tigers may not be the same team they were at the beginning of the season, but the resume is good, and Saturday night's performance against a conference opponent with a rookie quarterback deserves reward.
24. North Texas (NR): The Mean Green completely crushed UAB, winning 53–24 and improving to 9–1 overall and 5–1 in conference play. North Texas' win totals and upset results will get voters' attention as they try to fill out their ballots, but it's also a summary that got a boost from Navy's win over South Florida.
25. Navy (NR): A win over South Florida would put the Midshipmen back on voters' radar three weeks after Navy was ranked No. 26 in the AP poll. Navy is 8-2 with its only losses coming to North Texas and Notre Dame, and now has a quality win to bolster its resume over USF.
The teams are expected to be eliminated: No. 19 Louisville, No. 22 Cincinnati, No. 23 Pittsburgh, No. 25 South Florida
