MVP
Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks. With apologies to Jonathan Taylor, we know how this story goes. MVP no longer means Most Valuable Player. This means “Most Valuable Defensive Player” on a 12-win team with a good storyline. So we have three leaders: Matthew Stafford, Drake May and Darnold.
Stafford is at a level that could see him win the award by the end of the year. But now the choice fell on Darnold.
Some wondered why the Seahawks willingly left the solid and predictable foundation that was Geno Smith and went on the Darnold roller coaster ride. Was Darnold's escape in Minnesota real? Why ditch Geno rather than strengthen his cast? It felt like an unnecessary game. You didn't have to squint to see that after Smith left, D.K. Metcalf and offensive coordinator, the Seahawks have made plenty of big moves but haven't addressed their core weaknesses. Yet 10 weeks later, John Schneider looks like the rare executive who could outsmart the room.
Darnold's arrival transformed the Seahawks from a high-energy team to one of the top two in the league. Darnold was a sensational player—not good, not serviceable, but the best player at the league's most valuable position. He leads the league in QBR and scoring (9.0%). No one has made so many high-level shots on the field under pressure. Stafford and Maye were excellent at moving the ball down the field, but they also had the luxury of open targets more often than Darnold. Darnold faced a higher level of pressure on deep targets and a higher percentage of throws in tight windows overall.
Sam Darnold has made some ridiculous throws this year, but this touchdown pass to Jackson Smith-Njigbe may top them all. Just crazy hand talent, getting the ball to the receiver, throwing it over his body… pic.twitter.com/59PieIV3JC
— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) November 11, 2025
It's the aggression that stands out. Darnold hasn't met a coverage he doesn't want to destroy. At this point in his career, he has seen everything the defense throws at him and he has all the answers. He has blitzed with the best numbers in the league and has a near-perfect passer rating if you keep him in the pocket.
At 7-2, the Seahawks have a championship formula. Their defense is buzzing. They can score on long drives or in chunk plays. And their defender became not a passenger, but an elevator. He took a new position and turned his career around for the second season in a row. The two upcoming fights with Stafford will determine the MVP race. But for now, Darnold has the edge.
Forward of the Year
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts. Here's how voters clear their conscience: They give the “runner-up MVP” trophy to someone who isn't the quarterback they overlooked. If Saquon Barkley didn't win the biggest prize last season, Taylor probably won't sniff him out this year. His campaign will be the usual OPOY story: superb performance, bursting on historic pace and securing his team's first playoff spot.
It's hard to share credit for the Colts offense between Shane Steichen, the offensive line, Daniel Jones and all of the team's playmakers. But Taylor's performance in Berlin last week proved that Indy's revival is running through him – literally. He has 26 rushing touchdowns and is within striking distance of LaDainian Tomlinson's mark of 28 in the 2006 season. He's the engine of the Colts' offense, the rare running back who changes the geometry of a defense. And once the ball is in his hands, he will do just as much damage. after contact as it was before. Without Steichen, the line and the passing threat, Taylor's numbers may not be as bright. But his numbers after contact prove he is the player who embraces Steichen's vision.
Defender of the Year
Myles Garrett, Edge Cleveland Browns. Let's not think too much about it. The candidate pool is large this year, but Garrett is still living in his own rarefied atmosphere. Somehow, he's having the most dominant season of his career. He already has 11 sacks and 24 (!) run stops, while drawing more offensive attention than any other cornerback in football.
Entire game plans are designed to soften Garrett's presence, from double and triple teams to how opponents develop their running and passing strategies. None of this mattered. And the ripple effect of his presence has helped put Cleveland's defense fourth in the league in EPA/play despite an ineffective offense. Of course the Browns stink. But their accomplishments shouldn't detract from what Garrett does. If anything, this highlights it.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Why would a smart and productive wide receiver from Ohio State? No make it in the NFL? This is Egbuka in Tampa Bay. What the Bucs didn't count on was Egbuka's big play potential. He needed to be part of the offense as a professional receiver, someone who would be happy to do the dirty work to keep the offense going. Instead, they landed a superstar who can threaten defenses at all three levels. Egbuka plays smoothly, suddenly, and bides his time, averaging 16.9 yards per reception this season. He also became Baker Mayfield's favorite target on third downs, effectively losing his rookie title midway through his rookie season.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Carson Schwesinger, LB, Cleveland Browns. Abdul Carter will be the favorite for this award because he is always so adventurous. Whichever rookie leads his class in sacks or interceptions usually leaves with the hardware, regardless of his overall impact.
But this year should be different. You may have noticed, but the linebackers are back, folks! As the league returns to the run game, defenses are putting heavier bodies on the field. After a fruitless draft period in this position, the harvest this year has been stunning. Philadelphia's Jihad Campbell is more of a playmaker than Schwesinger and likely has a higher career ceiling. But Cleveland's rookie was the cleanest of the duo and became the linchpin of an outstanding team from Week 1 onwards. Schwesinger is a springy linebacker who can play behind the line of scrimmage or in coverage, something new players at his position often have to deal with.
The general trend is that midfielders take three years to settle in. During the league's nearly fifty-year lull, it was Fred Warner and then everyone else. Last season, Zach Baun came out of nowhere. go to Warner levelswitching from the wing to the traditional midfielder role. But Campbell and Schwesinger came into the league from day one like they belonged. With his 25 run stops and consistency in his game, Schwesinger finds success.
Coach of the Year
Mike Vrabel New England Patriots. Often the Coach of the Year award is my fault. We're sorry that our preseason predictions for your team were wrong. But for Vrabel everything is different. Tennessee collapsed in his absence; New England grew up in his image. This is not a coincidence.
The Patriots failed to achieve a 9-2 record and a division lead. There was no miraculous boom in quarterbacks, no fluke in changing players. They have Vrabel's great gift: structure.
Vrabel joined a devastated club, restored order and turned the Patriots into something formidable. This year's PatriotsDTF”at least according to Tony Romo. They are tough, disciplined, well-coached and creative on both sides of the ball. If not for a freak five-turnover play against the Steelers, they would have started 10-1.
Just think, six months ago they were facing a multi-year renovation. Heading into Thursday's game against the Jets, the Patriots were one of two teams (along with the Rams) to rank in the top 10 in both offensive EPA/play (eighth) and defensive EPA/play (eighth). You can point to the soft schedule, but that doesn't mean the Patriots entered the season as surefire contenders themselves. And they have two of their most impressive wins this season, beating Buffalo and Tampa Bay on the road.
Vrabel's fingerprints are all over it. Almost all of his offseason bets paid off immediately. He rebuilt the defensive front by adding Milton Williams, Hiris Tong, K'Lavon Chesson, Harold Landry and Robert Spillane in the offseason, relying on the group of players he worked with at Tennessee. Only Williams is a blue-chip star, but the Patriots have the third-best pass defense in the NFL. And they did it despite the absence of their defensive coordinator Terrell Williams, who was diagnosed with prostate cancer in September. Vrabel took on a more prominent role on defense. But he also assigned 37-year-old Zach Coore, who also came from Tennessee along with Vrabel, to handle play-by-play duties in Williams' absence.
Vrabel also called for Josh McDaniels to be brought back as offensive coordinator, despite his apparent desire to move on from Belichick's days in New England. It was a masterstroke; McDaniels helped unlock May's potential and created a top-10 unit without any high-powered talent.
There are very few examples of clubs making such a dramatic turnaround in one offseason with such an influx of new players and coaches. And all these decisions go back to Vrabel.
