With the House voting 222 to 209 to pass the Senate funding bill Wednesday night and President Donald Trump signing the legislation in the Oval Office, the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history has officially ended.
But turning the federal government back on again in six weeks could prove challenging. Or instant. The shutdown was felt across the country, from meager lunch tables to missed paychecks in America. largest employer to upside down travel plans. And while the shutdown may have ended legally, the ripple effects are likely to continue as America tries to chart its way forward.
There are logistical obstacles. At least 670,000 Federal employees placed on leave will be instructed to return to work. Back wages will have to be paid to them, as well as the 730,000 employees who continued to work without pay. Air travel will take time to return to normal (as evidenced by representatives' 11th-hour scramble to return to Washington to vote on the legislation Wednesday – with one congressman in attendance). rides his motorcycle from Wisconsin, while others shared car). And while the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits for nearly 42 million recipients are set to resume, complications could arise as states that have provided partial assistance count outstanding payments according to the food program.
Why did we write this
Once the government shutdown ends, the next steps become clear: Getting the federal government running again in six weeks may not be easy or quick. In a sharply divided Washington, new political obstacles lie ahead.
And politically, Congress faces an increasingly daunting to-do list at a time of worsening dysfunction. After eight senators broke with the Democratic Party and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Monday and voted with Senate Republicans to pass a spending bill that would reopen the government, weeks of party unity showed signs of cracking. Other Democrats criticized their colleagues for voting to end the shutdown without achieving what they fought for: an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year.
But the party has managed to raise this issue as an issue of concern to the American people, and now Republicans can find rising cost of medical premiums will be a crucial issue for them ahead of next year's midterm elections. Given that this legislation only funds most of the government until January 30, the parties could well find themselves in a similar impasse in less than three months.
“We just had the longest shutdown in our history, we haven't decided what will happen to health care subsidies, we borrow $2 trillion a year, we have no budget,” says Mark Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonprofit group that supports deficit reduction. “Sure, we can pat ourselves on the back for turning on the light, but there are no long-term solutions for anything in the bill: appropriations, health care, the debt.”
Instead, while “essential” activities from defense to Social Security continued as normal, the shutdown that began Oct. 1 disrupted a range of federal activities that impact the economy, including scientific research and small business loans.
“We could have given up the opportunity to make real allocations now. Instead, it took us six weeks to even get to the point where we could give it up,” Mr. Goldwein says. “We closed as if in vain.”
How the bill restores government funding
Although the bill funds most of the government at 2025 levels through Jan. 30, several agencies would be funded through the end of FY 2026: the Department of Agriculture (including SNAP), the Food and Drug Administration, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Military Construction.
The bill would also require wages to be paid to all federal employees who were not paid during the shutdown and would void any workforce reductions or RIFs that were issued during the shutdown. Any affected employee must be reinstated within five days after the bill becomes law.
Other notable elements of the bill include:
- A $603 million increase in funding the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (known as WIC).
- The provision would allow senators to sue the government for up to $500,000 if his or her data is obtained in an investigation without proper notification. It would allow eight Republican senators whose phone records were searched during the investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol to sue. Some House Republicans have opposed the provision, and Speaker Mike Johnson says he will stick with it. vote to repeal this provision next week.
- Strict restrictions on hemp productswhich was previously legalized by the 2018 Farm Bill.
- Additional funding for the security of officials, including $203.5 million in additional funds for members of Congress and $28 million for Supreme Court judges.
Dent in the economy
The closure will deal a blow to the economy amid an already slowing growth trend.
“Short-term outages are usually invisible in the data, but they will leave a lasting mark,” writes Gregory Dacochief economist at accounting firm EY, “both because of its record duration and the growing disruptions to welfare and travel programs.”
Congressional Budget Office forecasters estimate that six week shutdown will reduce gross domestic product in the fourth quarter by about 1.5 percentage points. This will be largely offset by the resumption of economic recovery in the first quarter of 2026, which will potentially have little long-term impact on the economy.
However, related problems are delays and gaps in economic data collection caused by the shutdown. The Federal Reserve relies on official surveys of inflation, unemployment and consumer spending to set interest rates. The government has already missed two monthly employment reports and the October inflation data collection.
White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said Wednesday that employment and inflation data for October likely won't be released because the data collection window has passed. “Democrats may have caused irreparable damage to the federal statistical system, as the October CPI reports will likely never be released,” she said.
Those gaps will influence how the Fed weighs another possible interest rate cut in December, with Chairman Jerome Powell comparing the uncertainty caused by a lack of economic data to moving in a fog when it's wise to “slow down.” At a press conference on October 29, he said that “the data may come back. But there is a possibility that it makes sense to be more careful when moving.”
Restoring the normal state of the sky
Air traffic controller staffing has already begun to improve after the Senate passed the funding bill, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in a speech. press conference on Tuesday at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago. The number of staff triggers issued by the Federal Aviation Administration when staffing levels are deemed too low fell to four from 81 on Saturday. While Mr. Duffy at the time expressed relief that controllers were beginning to “feel more hopeful” about the shutdown ending and getting to work, he noted that the United States had a shortage of about 2,000 controllers even before the shutdown. Lori Garrow, a civil aviation expert at Georgia Tech University, estimates the shortfall at 3,000 to 3,500 given growing demand for air travel.
“We need more people like this to come into this profession,” Mr Duffy said. “This closure will make it more difficult for us to achieve that goal.” The closures have led to a decline in both recruitment and retention, Mr Duffy argues, with younger workers less willing to enter the profession when they see there may be a pay gap, and older workers less willing to delay retirement.
Between 24 and 48 hours after the government reopens, air traffic controllers will receive 70% of their missed pay, with the rest due within a week, Mr Duffy said. He did not give an exact time when the mandatory flight cuts would be lifted from the current level of 6%. According to him, flights can be restored gradually.
“It will take a day or two for the airline to get back to normal operations… All the planes, pilots and cabin crew have to get back in sync,” Professor Garrow says, noting that a technology glitch last year meant it took Delta Air Lines five days to resume normal service. “We are still in a situation where our air traffic control system is more fragile than before.”
“Months to catch up”
The shutdown has put a pause on a wide range of activities, from small business loans to billions of dollars in investments. military And another federal procurement, as well as various grants, such as those that help Americans solve problems lead hazards in their homes. Another lasting impact is on scientific research.
“Even a suspension of work for several days may require scientific institutions months to catch up about the backlog of paperwork, salaries and peer review commissions before they return to normal activities,” wrote Kenny Evans is a physicist and fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. Beyond government agencies, the impacts are being felt at universities that rely on federal research funding.
The closure also has an impact on federal aid that expands early childhood education. Head Start employees will face a delay of at least a month, said Michelle Hymowitz, executive director of the Massachusetts Head Start Association. This includes October grants that were never paid, as well as 135 other grants scheduled for November that were delayed due to the shutdown. Officials will also need to determine how many of the furloughed employees plan to return. “Head Start is not a light switch,” she says. “It cannot be turned off and on automatically.”
And while Wednesday night may have ended the government shutdown, it also sparked another controversy in Washington. After Democratic Rep. Adelita Grijalva of Arizona was sworn in, she provided the final 218 signatures needed to force a House vote to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Speaker Mike Johnson says he plans to vote next week on the full publication of the relevant materials of the Ministry of Justice.
Staff writer Troy Aidan Sambajon contributed to this article.
