Over half of the 2025 NFL season is behind us, with Week 11 kicking off Thursday night between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots. The league's 2025 playoff bracket isn't set in stone, but some separation is beginning to occur between the top and the bottom of the standings.
Over in the NFC, there are clear-cut teams who are out of the hunt, but there's also a crowded top half of the conference that could see its pecking order change — like a shaken-up snow globe — on a week-to-week basis. The NFC West has two 7-2 squads at the top of its standings, the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams, while the top three teams in the NFC North — the Detroit Lions (6-3), the Chicago Bears (6-3) and the Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) — are all separated by just half a game.
Seven teams will represent the NFC in the postseason, with the final three spots going to wild cards. Which squads will emerge from the pack to earn the right to play football into mid-January? Which hopefuls are too far behind to catch up 10 weeks into the season? Here is a ranking of the seven teams considered to be still alive in the wild card chase, plus all of those teams' projected end-of-season records.
Division leaders
- Philadelphia Eagles (7-2, NFC East)
- Seattle Seahawks (7-2, NFC West)
- Detroit Lions (6-3, NFC North)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3, NFC South)
Unofficially out of it
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL futures at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
Wild card contenders
- Odds to win NFC East: +3500
- Odds to make playoffs:Â +880
The Cowboys' offense is awesome. Quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Javonte Williams, wide receiver George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson are all producing like top-five to top-10 players at their respective positions for the NFL's No. 4 scoring offense (29.2 points per game).
However, for as elite as the Dallas offense has been, its defense has been equally horrific, entering Week 11 allowing 30.8 points per game, the second most in the NFL and the third most through nine games of a season in franchise history.Â
That's why the 2025 Cowboys have become the answer to the following jeopardy question: “Which team averaged the most points per game while still having a negative point differential through the first nine games of a season in NFL history?” This current Dallas squad that has a -14 point differential with an offense averaging 29.2 points per game is the answer.Â
The Cowboys' glimmer of hope is that the trade deadline arrivals of All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (via a trade with the Jets) and veteran linebacker Logan Wilson (via a trade with the Bengals) — plus the season debuts of explosive linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and 2025 third-round cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. — lift this defense from dreadful to around league average.
The good news for Dallas is it has games remaining against the 2-7 Raiders, the 3-7 Commanders and the 2-8 Giants. The bad news it also has games remaining against five playoff teams from a year ago in the Eagles (7-2), Chiefs (5-4), Lions (6-3), Chargers (7-3) and Vikings (4-5). In order for the Cowboys to make the postseason, they would likely have to finish the year no worse than 6-2, which would run their overall record to 9-7-1. That's a nearly impossible tightrope to walk against this remaining schedule.
Projected final record: 7-9-1
- Odds to win NFC South:Â +850
- Odds to make playoffs: +520
The Panthers blew a golden opportunity to be 6-4 entering the back half of the season after a horrendous 17-7 faceplant of a home defeat against the now 2-8 Saints on Sunday. Carolina's offense produced season lows in points (seven) and total yards (175) in the shocking defeat.
Teams just aren't afraid of Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, whose 5.6 yards per attempt ranks 32nd in the NFL out of 33 qualified quarterbacks and whose 168.2 passing yards per game ranks 30th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks.
Running back Rico Dowdle, whose 788 yards rushing rank as the third most in the NFL despite not starting until Week 5, has been excellent, but that hasn't been enough to overcome Young's struggles.
After losing what should have been an easy home win in Week 10, the Panthers now have the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL (.569 opponents' combined win percentage). They have to play both the 7-2 Rams and the 7-2 Seahawks, the 6-3 Buccaneers twice and the feisty 6-4 49ers. Unless Young magically levels up, the Panthers will be sitting on the couch once again after Week 18.Â
Projected final record: 7-10
5. Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
- Odds to win NFC North:Â +2200
- Odds to make playoffs: +490
The Vikings are stocked with plenty of talent along their offense from 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year wide receiver Justin Jefferson to former first-round wide receiver Jordan Addison to Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson to Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones. Head coach Kevin O'Connell is the reigning NFL Coach of the Year for his work rebuilding quarterback Sam Darnold, and defensive coordinator Brian Flores typically maximizes whatever defensive talent he has to work with year in and year out.
However, quarterback J.J. McCarthy isn't quite ready to elevate the roster as a starter in his first season playing 2025: he's produced a 53.7% completion percentage, seven total touchdowns and six interceptions in four starts while throwing at least one interception in every start. He may or may not be the guy for Minnesota down the road, but McCarthy isn't ready to be what the Vikings need in 2025.
Projected final record: 7-10
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4. Chicago Bears (6-3)
- Odds to win NFC North:Â +750
- Odds to make playoffs:Â +142
The  Bears are on fire at the moment, with wins in six of their past seven games after an 0-2 start. Since Week 3, the Bears lead the NFL in total yards per game (394.6), rushing yards per game (153.5) and giveaways (three). The Chicago defense is also the league's overall season leader in takeaways (20).Â
However, much of that production has been accumulated against a slate of teams that could very well miss the playoffs this season: the Cowboys (31-14 win), Raiders (25-24 win), Commanders (25-24 win), Saints (26-14 win), Ravens (30-16 loss), Bengals (47-42 win) and Giants (24-20 win).Â
Wins against the Raiders, Commanders, Bengals and Giants all were nearly losses, and Chicago lost against the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens in Week 8. The Bears' schedule stiffens the rest of the way as their opponents have a combined .562 winning percentage, giving Chicago the fourth-toughest remaining slate in the NFL. Progress has been made in Year 1 under new head coach Ben Johnson, but the roster is a few moves away from seriously challenging for a playoff spot.Â
Projected final record: 7-10
3. San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
- Odds to win NFC West:Â +950
- Odds to make playoffs:Â -355
Whether Brock Purdy or Mac Jones has been the 49ers' starting quarterback this season, head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense has been able to produce through the air (league leading 261.4 passing yards per game.) That's incredibly impressive considering All-Pro tight end George Kittle has missed half the season (five games), wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has yet to return from a torn ACL and MCL he suffered last season and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall has been out for six games thus far.Â
Running back Christian McCaffrey is producing at a level somewhat close to his 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year season with more than 600 yards rushing (626) and 600 yards receiving (692). That makes CMC just the fourth player in NFL history with over 600 yards rushing and over 600 yards receiving in his team's first 10 games of the season along with Pro Bowl running back Timmy Brown (1965), 1980s All-Decade team member Roger Craig (1985) and Pro Football Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk (1998), per CBS Sports Research.Â
It's also remarkable the 49ers have been a league-average defense (23.0 points per game, 15th in the NFL) despite losing both All-Pro edge rusher Nick Bosa and All-Pro inside linebacker Fred Warner to season-ending injuries. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is working miracles in the Bay Area, and that should be enough for the 49ers to return to the playoffs in 2025. That's especially true considering the 49ers have the Cardinals, Browns and Panthers on their schedule the back half of the season.Â
Projected final record: 11-6
2. Green Bay Packers (5-3-1)
- Odds to win NFC North:Â +180
- Odds to make playoffs:Â -325
The Packers are currently 5-3-1, but they have the potential to be significantly better. They have one of the best defenses in football with six games allowing under 20 points, tied for the most such games in the NFL. The problem is they're just 3-3 in those six games.Â
All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons has made a difference for Green Bay with his 50 quarterback pressures, the third most in the league this season, to go along with 6.5 sacks. Pro Bowl edge rusher Rashan Gary is on pace to for a career-high in sacks with 7.5, tied for the seventh most in the NFL, in nine games played, and both linebacker Quay Walker and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper are benefitting from the added attention Parsons attracts.Â
|
PPG allowed |
19.6 |
7th |
|
Total YPG allowed |
287.2 |
5th |
|
Yards per play allowed |
4.6 |
3rd |
|
Rush YPG allowed |
91.8 |
6th |
|
Pass YPG allowed |
195.4 |
11th |
|
Yards per pass attempt allowed |
5.9 |
1st |
|
Third-down conversion rate allowed  |
35.8% Â |
10th  |
However, a number of factors have led to the Packers having a league-average scoring offense (23.7 points per game, 15th in the NFL this season) despite quarterback Jordan Love performing at a top-10 level in 2025.Â
- Injuries along both the offensive line to center Elgton Jenkins and right tackle Zach Tom have hurt, as well as regression by left tackle Rasheed Walker.Â
- That's hampered Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs‘ efficiency, as he is averaging 3.8 yards per carry, the second lowest of his career. However, he is still finding the end zone: his 11 rushing touchdowns are the second most in the NFL this season and the most by a Packer through nine games of a season in the Super Bowl era, since 1966.Â
- The offensive line issues are also impacting the passing game in terms of both execution and play-calling: the Packers' 37.1% quarterback pressure rate ranks just below average at 17th.Â
- Having a below-average pass-blocking unit and being without both tight end Tucker Kraft (torn ACL) and wide receiver Jayden Reed (foot injury) has led to head coach Matt LaFleur calling a conservative game plan this season: Green Bay is calling running plays on 49.2% of their first- and second-down plays this season, fifth-highest rate in the NFL. LaFleur is also calling play-action passes on just a 17.1% rate, 21st in the league.Â
Mixing it up with more passes and more play-action on early downs to make better use of Love's arm and the speed of wide receivers like Christian Watson and first-round rookie Matthew Golden could cause a significant uptick in offensive production. If that happens, Green Bay could easily fly up the standings. The talent is there, even with its offensive injury issues.Â
|
Completion percentage |
68.9% |
9th |
|
Pass yards per attempt |
7.9 |
7th |
|
Pass yards |
2,247 |
8th |
|
TD-INT ratio |
13-3 |
8th |
|
Passer rating |
103.0 |
8th |
|
Completions of 25-plus yards |
21 |
T-4th |
Projected final record: 12-4-1
1. Los Angeles Rams (7-2)
- Odds to win NFC West:Â -120
- Odds to make playoffs:Â -3500
The only reason the Rams are in this wild card spot instead of the Seahawks at the moment is because the Seahawks have the better record in division games (2-1 vs. 1-1) and conference games (4-2 vs. 2-2). However, the Rams will face the Seahawks in Week 11 and Week 16. Depending on how those games go, Los Angeles could certainly leapfrog over Seattle for first place in the NFC West.Â
The Seahawks and the Rams are the only teams in the NFL in 2025 who both rank in the top five in the league in scoring offense — 31.4 PPG for Seattle (third in the NFL) and 27.9 PPG for Los Angeles (fifth in the NFL) — and scoring defense — 17.0 PPG for Los Angeles (second in the NFL) and 19.1 PPG for Seattle (fifth in the NFL).
Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford leads the NFL with 25 passing touchdowns, and he is just the second quarterback ever with 25 or more passing touchdowns and two or fewer interceptions through the first nine games of a season, along with Patrick Mahomes in 2020. Head coach Sean McVay and Stafford are cooking on an elite level right now, and they'll certainly be in a toe-to-toe battle with the Seahawks for the NFC West crown all year long.Â
Projected final record: 13-4
