Fossil fuel emissions rise again – but China’s are levelling off

Fossil fuel emissions worldwide will rise 1.1 percent in 2025, reaching another record high, as humanity burns hydrocarbons at an ever-faster pace, according to the annual Global Carbon Budget report.

In a positive sign, emissions from China, the world's largest emitter, appear to be stabilizing, raising hopes that they may be peaking and that global emissions may follow.

“We are not yet in a situation where emissions are falling as quickly as is needed to address climate change,” says Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia, UK, who worked on the report. “But at the same time there is a big positive trend: emissions in China and India are growing more slowly than before.”

This year, humanity will emit 38.1 billion tons of fossil CO2, which is equivalent to 9 billion gasoline cars driven throughout the year. Bye renewable energy sources displacing hydrocarbons in many places, this is not enough to offset rising energy demand, much of which is met by fossil fuels. The burning of coal, oil and natural gas has continued to increase this year.

According to the report, the Earth has warmed by 1.36°C since pre-industrial times. Warming continues at current emissions levels below the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C is practically impossible, say the authors of the report. A temperature rise of 1.5°C increases the risk of catastrophic climate impacts, including irreversible tipping points such as the collapse of ice sheets.

Last month, the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres addresses world leaders Before the COP30 climate summit, it was concluded that a temperature rise of 1.5°C was now inevitable, and humanity needed to reduce emissions to keep this rise as low as possible.

When carbon sequestration by ocean and land ecosystems is taken into account, global CO2 emissions will actually fall slightly in 2025. However, this is largely due to end of warm El Niñowhich suppressed photosynthesis in large bodies of water such as tropical forests.

As the climate gets warmer, these sinks absorb less carbon, scientists say. separate study group of authors of the report on the global carbon budget.

However, total emissions have increased more slowly this decade than in the previous one, says Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter, UK, one of the authors of the report. “Things are looking better,” he says. “If you look at the growth rate, it’s much lower now.”

The report estimates China's emissions will increase by 0.4 percent in 2025. analysis Carbon Brief found that the company's emissions remained flat in the third quarter of the year. Solar power there is up 46 percent from last year, offsetting increased electricity demand, according to the company. Rising sales of electric vehicles have reduced pollution in the transport sector, but the rise of oil-intensive chemical and plastics production has generally led to an increase in static emissions.

Ember Analytical Center said in another report that thanks solar boomChina's fossil fuel power output fell 1.1 percent in the first three quarters of 2025, marking “structural changes in the country's electricity system.” In India, which also produces record amounts of solar and wind power, it fell 3.3 percent.

For the first time since Covid-19, global fossil energy production, excluding transport, industry and other emitters, will not grow in 2025, Amber said.