Finally, after 40-plus days, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history is coming to an end.
Late Monday, Senate approved a stopgap spending package passed by a 60-40 vote, keeping most federal agencies funded through Jan. 30. Home expected adopt it on Wednesday and send it to President Donald Trump for signature.
What vote will open up most of Washington, but not before the wave damage cascades Across the country, tens of thousands of flights are delayed or cancelled, 42 million Americans face interruptions in food assistance, and hundreds of thousands of federal workers and contractors go unpaid.
But economists warn that reopening will not make up for the losses. Goldman Sachs spoke of a significant economic impact that would likely exceed any previous closure. According to Congressional Budget Office estimates, $14 billion Output could be permanently lost, affecting GDP in the fourth quarter.
Markets seemed to welcome the dealwhen the S&P 500 index grows as much as 1.5% only on Monday. But the overall economic recovery will take longer. Here's a look at how the damage (and relief) is breaking down across sectors.
Winners
Defense sector
Despite the shutdown, defense contractors likely continued to operate as normal, in large part because the Pentagon, constrained but isolated, continued to function as usual. The major defense establishments were largely isolated, with most operations financed through standing appropriations. And since the temporary bill specifically expands funding For the Department of Veterans Affairs as well as military construction projects, companies in the larger defense supply chain will likely see higher and smoother cash flow ahead.
Wall Street and shareholders in general
Investors, after a bull market for much of 2025, remained enthusiastic about news of a Senate vote and a possible House vote. Major indices rose. The Nasdaq alone added almost 2%. Forecast markets have wavered in recent weeks over whether the data-oblivious Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates through the end of the year, but now, with a clearer field and ready access to economic indicators, traders seems to favor the odds third reduction in December.
Large agricultural enterprises and food producers
Senate deal funds The Agriculture Department is stabilizing farmer payments and food safety oversight after weeks of uncertainty. For large food companies, this likely means fewer disruptions in inspections and supply chains.
Private lending and gig platforms
It's reasonable to assume that during the shutdown, some affected households likely turned to “buy now, pay later” plans, salary enhancement apps, and platforms for working at concerts to fill the revenue gap. This situation could persist for weeks as outstanding payments flow into checking accounts, temporarily boosting business for lenders and task-based apps.
Losers
Airlines, airports, tourism
Flight delays have become perhaps the most visible symbol of quarantine. Federal Aviation Administration limiting air traffic volumes at major hubsresulting in thousands of flight cancellations, large queues and delays at regional airports, and an estimated $600 million on a day of economic loss, according to Airlines for America. Normal operations will also not resume immediately” said Transport Minister Sean Duffy.
Even after flights resume, airlines are expecting a holiday hangover as staffing levels and staffing levels return to normal.
Federal workers and contractors
About 800,000 federal workers will receive back pay, but that won't cover late fees, missed mortgage payments or lost contract earnings. Small government providers who are not reimbursed face serious damage to their cash flow.
Small business
Shops and restaurants near shuttered federal buildings saw traffic stop for nearly six full weeks. Many lacked liquidity to make up the shortfall, and some may not reopen. Small Business Hiring probably slowed down or stoppedespecially among the hardest-hit businesses.
Consumers
Supplemental Nutrition Program malfunctions deferred payments for approximately 42 million low-income Americans, temporarily exacerbating already widespread food insecurity. The closures also likely dented consumer confidence ahead of the holidays.
Housing
Home sales have likely slowed in urban areas with high concentrations of federal workers. Washington and surrounding areas To Huntsville. Mortgage applications may have been delayed or slowed by a lack of proof of income, with some buyers unsure about salaries, while a bigger hit to confidence was likely to be felt in the wider national market of buyers and sellers. Debt can help close some deals, but chances are many have already fallen through.
Economy as a whole
Output lost due to a trip cannot be easily recovered or restored. CBO projects some permanent losses, as well as a potential long-term slowdown in productivity and hiring through early 2026.
In other words, the sharp stock rally could be another example of a familiar split, with Wall Street pulling back first while Main Street waits.
