Sunday's game featured promising offensive play, with an early touchdown pass from Baker Mayfield to Emeka Egbuka getting the game started. Books' drive a car. But as the game progressed, the offense lost its rhythm, the running game stalled and there were critical turnovers against Tampa Bay, raising questions about the decisions and development of the offensive plan under Grizzard.
Here are a few specific problem areas.
Goal line and red zone ineffectiveness
Before this game, Grizzard himself admitted that the Bucs' running game in the red zone was a weakness. He noted the team's inability to “run the ball” when they were on the half- or one-yard line and emphasized that if the run isn't working, you have to “open up a little bit…keep them honest.”
However, the Bucs once again struggled in tight spaces in this game; the design and choice of goal line play during the run-up felt predictable and lacking in variety. Opponents were prepared for it, and the Bucs didn't seem to be able to adapt with enough creativity.
Launch the game. Refusal to play/no commitment.
Despite the running backs and movement showing potential, at times the Bucs seemed to give up on the run game when the drives stalled. Pregame analysis showed that Nebraska's Inside Zone and Pull Forward runs were well-suited to attacking the Patriots' front. Instead, we saw stretches where the Bucs passed the ball too often or ran predictable inside-zone runs without changes, allowing the Patriots to load up and make stops.
Play on third down and short yardage
Another glaring weakness: the Bucs' third-down offense. Sources indicate that the conversion rate was down from previous seasons, and post-game commentary noted several third downs where play selections seemed too difficult or too insufficient.
In several short-yardage situations, the Bucs ran routine first-look plays (standard inside zone, shotgun) rather than plotting mismatches or quick passes on the play. In these situations, the calling play should take advantage of favorable matchups, create movement to confuse the defense, or use the running pass option concept. A conservative and predictable approach prevented the forwards from staying ahead of the pack.
Inability to customize in game
At halftime or after a series in which the Patriots made adjustments, the Bucs offense showed no noticeable changes. Pregame analysts noted that when the Patriots are faced with play action or misdirection, they are vulnerable. However, during the game, several of the Bucs' drives looked stale: no increased movement, no more creative play-action, no increased tempo. This allowed the Patriots to get a foothold and take the lead.
Mismatch between scheme and personnel
There were times when Grizzard used deeper or multi-step throws despite a less-than-stable offensive line and short-yardage scenarios. Mayfield himself said earlier this season that when he's out of rhythm, the game suffers. Additionally, the Bucs have talented receivers and running backs who can operate both after the catch and in space. Sometimes the play calling did not prioritize space (short, quick throws, screens, yardage after the catch setups) but instead used the same playbook that was used when the line was healthier.
